GC

Potential long entry trigger in Gold today.
On the weekly (below, left) and daily (below, right) today's close marked an entry in anticipation of the weekly time frame buy divergence playing out.

A little faster time frame; Daily (below, left) and ~4-hour (below, right) had a really nice 3d criteria setup and really nice R:R entry.  Primary resistance to deal with is the 1289 area.

The momentum on the 4H chart is pretty solid, and though the main trend is still solidly negative dip buying seems reasonable from here and back into the 1230 range.  Under 1230 could see a failed move turn into a fast (bearish) move.

An even higher time shows a clearer picture of the monthly chart potential for a '3-pushes to a low' setup to play out

Fri 12_06

Didn't get a chance sooner to post these higher time frame setups/entries/targets:

The SPY hit it's first target on Monday's open

nothing to see

Narrow consolidation ahead of employment report tomorrow morning (8:30am ET).
All are holding higher lows; the SPY being closest to a daily higher low pivot (just under $178).
The QQQ gave some potential long entries on the hourly, but turned to scratches for small loss.

SPY continues to consolidate within range (3/10macd fast line > slow line)

IWM gave a potential entry that was later scratched for a small loss after a tick down in the fast line on a reverse divergence.

DIA similar pattern to the SPY.  No long potential until fast line turns positive.

Gold

Monthly/weekly (below left, right) -  Has the potential for a sharp rally if this double-bottom holds.  Slight buy divergence on the weekly and longer term inverted head and shoulders pattern.

Daily - Would be preferable to see momentum on a (daily) fast line turn to positive.

Wed 12_04

DIA - seeing divergences on lower price lows.  Would be waiting for the hourly 3/10macd fast line to turn positive (at least).

IWM - similar divergences.  Buyers likely to buy into higher lows.

QQQ - saw the fast line (hourly) turn positive, but the negative sloping line (also close to going negative) was a more aggressive entry.  A green fast line from here could be a buy entry I believe.

SPY -  The 3/10macd fast line is forming an inverted H&S pattern, so a green fast line from here could be a good buying entry (in anticipation of the Daily fast line turning up and positive).

SPY channels

Posted this chart elsewhere yesterday; wanted to include it here.
The norm in this market has been very narrow yet relentless upward channels.  But once these channels break it has often been the case to enter into a longer period of correction and/or consolidation.
The broader perspective:

A closer look at the most recent channels:

Lower channel held; coincided with 20-day MA

Tue 12_03

SPY - Short trigger yesterday, primary target achieved.  No longs on this time frame until the hourly (lower, right) 3/10macd sets up (fast line reclaiming the slow line, turns positive, pulls back and continues, a.k.a. ABC buying wave).

IWM - showing a buy divergence on the hourly, but nothing bullish just yet.  A narrow, tight channel on the hourly, may start working sideways here.  

QQQ - still retaining bullish strength.  Narrow, tight flag/channel on the hourly (2c-2d criteria)

DIA - not quite ready for being long, but already hit 3R from the initial entry, so perhaps limited downside for the time being.

fast line

Just a comparison of three indexes Daily (below, left) with hourly (below, right).
Often when the slow line is sloping down (criteria '2') and the fast line is below it the move can be more muted/choppy.
 SPY - slow line sloping down and fast line bumping into it; the breakout (below, left and second to right up arrow) was successful, but the most recent one was more muted (note hourly below, right fast line < slow line as we consolidate, can still break higher and see a fast/slow line cross).

QQQ - Daily (below, left) the most recent up arrow saw the fast line clearing above the slow line

IWM - Daily (below, left) fast line is decidedly above slow line.  Most recent break out saw much more momentum than the SPY

update

charts and potential entries updated from yesterday
SPY

QQQ - lagging a bit

Daily finally got the fast line tick up (anticipated by using the hourly to enter).  While it can be considered an entry long on this (daily) time frame it becomes sketchy at this point being that we're so late in the move.

On second thought...lol

squeeze train

Red day?  Buy it.  Taper?  Buy it?  Outside reversal?  Buy it.  Bearish engulfing?  Buy it.  lol and so it goes.

     Just some 15-min charts with potential entry arrows.
  The very bottom indicator is the 3/10macd for the time frame of the chart (15-min), while the indicator above it reflects the time frame approximately 3x higher/slower.  Bear in mind, the exits for such trades are not indicated; they are a discretionary determination.  Targets are sually based on the distance between the entry and a recent pivot.  I also use the 3/10macd to cue me to exit for taking a loss (if the slow line & fast line disagree or if the fast line ticks down, that sort of thing).

SPY - under resistance.  Gap up and run, or fade?

IWM - nice and clear 3d criteria setup on the higher time frame (highlighted).  Breakout tomorrow, or is this a double-top?

QQQ - at resistance

An updated chart of the daily/hourly posted yesterday.  Still no certainty with the daily.  Today's buy trigger on the hourly can lead to a breakout tomorrow, thereby pulling the daily fast line up, but the hourly reverse divergence and small bodied doji's at resistance are reason to be quick on the cover/reverse button if it threatens the 179.36 area.

no follow through

We didn't get any bullish follow-through after the faster time frame (hourly) had a positive fast line change.  The '4a' criteria (slow line negative and ticking down with a positive fast line) will always be a suspect entry, if there is no immediate momentum to follow (the momentum is needed to pull the slow line from criteria '4' to '3' and eventually to '1').  A better setup would be for the fast line to turn positive then pull back into a positive slow line before continuing higher.

Trying to get a jump on the potential higher time frame shift we can add the 15-minute chart into the mix (below, right).
We had an entry in the morning, but rejection at resistance was evident and eventually a fast line/slow line cross was a warning sign for potential time/price correction (also note bearish moving averages).  Going into the afternoon we had an either/or scenario (price could have gone either way) take place into FOMC minutes at 1:00pm CT but the selling trigger ended up giving a measured move.

Now, if looking for a long entry we can start by waiting for the 15-min time frame to develop more of a bullish criteria (FL > SL with a slow line positive and closer to the zero-line, maybe a 3d to 3a to 1a, similar to what we saw late afternoon yesterday and early this morning).

Wed. 11_20

Watching the faster time frame to clue us in to further upside (or downside).
The daily 3/10macd fast line will either tick up from here (1b to 1a) or cross the slow line and likely trigger a steeper correction (1b to 2c).  Looking to the faster time frame (hourly chart on right) we would like to see the fast line on the 3/10macd cross the slow line and turn positive to go long (which would then turn the fast line up on the daily chart.

Wed 11_13

We've been waiting for the 3/10macd fast line and slow line to catch up with one another again, which will probably take place on tomorrow's open.  By that time, the move is stretched and one would be buying late into that time frame.  So, we need a way to anticipate this potential move by clueing off of a faster time frame.
Here is the Daily (left) 1H (middle) and 15-min time frames

Momentum is in progress, and the only thing to look out for would be lack of follow-through once the first round of selling has occurred.  It is Options Expiration week and anything can happen.

Just looking at the higher time frames things are still pretty bullish.
This Daily chart has two macd indicators.  The bottom is the standard 3/10-macd that reflects the Daily time frame; the one above it is a macd that reflects a time frame three times slower (closely mimics the weekly 3/10 macd).
Included are potential entry considerations for the daily time frame.  The highlighted regions are indicating like occurrences, in this case, where the fast line was less than the slow line once the fast line turned back up to positive from negative .  So the most recent long "triggers" have taken place, but since the fast line is less than the slow line I would look to exit on the daily fast line ticking back down, the way it did in August.

cycles

Food for thought:
 Very symmetrical cycle count leading up to this breakout.  It is easily possible that this current inverted cycle could last another 18-days and it would be symmetrical with the preceding 22-day regular cycle.

There is a caveat:
The second and third cycles in the image above (marked 51 and 47 respectively) have a price behavior pattern that is similar to a 'throwback' to a trend line.  Being that the Cyclic Trend Line (CTL) is so steep, price naturally "breaks down" from it out of the sheer speed of the move.  But because the prevailing move was so strong this is seen as a buyable pullback (channel on a faster time frame perhaps) and so it makes a new high while throwing back to the CTL which, in turn, warrants a re-drawing of the CTL and giving us a new boundary for the beginning of our next cycle.

These next two charts illustrate what I'm trying to convey.

So, that 'caveat' being that there is potential for the same thing to be taking place currently, as is shown in the chart below:

Bonds

Big move in bonds today.
30-year T-bond yield TYX -  looks like a move to 41 supply point

10-year Treasury Note yield $TNX broke out of this down trend line and held a throwback to this trend line

5-year Treasury Note yield $FVX - more muted

TLT fell apart after testing the down trending 20-period SMA

INX (top) 30-yr (bottom)

So.  Yields up, attempting to advertise lower rates.  What does it all mean?

waiting

A method I employ to allow momentum time to digest is by trading on the "right side" of the 3/10macd fast and slow lines.  "Right side" meaning, if I'm looking for a long entry I prefer to have the fast line greater than the slow line, or at least close enough to where I can anticipate this to happen.
In this Daily chart below of the SPY the fast line went under the slow line (most recently) on Oct. 30th, so before entertaining a long entry I prefer to wait until the fast line and slow line catch up to one another again.  This isn't to say that price can not go higher, it's just a way of allowing previous momentum time to digest.
Other examples are highlighted in the chart below coinciding with potential long entries.  There was a faded breakout in June, but it is a good reminder that nothing is ever perfect in this game.