2c AMZN

Here was a 2c setup gone wrong.  At least I THOUGHT it was a 2c setup, but the "trend" was certainly not decided at this point.  As the breakout failed (stopped out) I turned short quickly as the setup morphed into 2c-2d-4c continuation short setup...essentially sloppy and not worth the trade.  $195 overhead looks to be a significant level for AMZN...keeping an eye on it.

2c

AAPL ....adding this for the sake of having it on here.  2c long entry.  Price pulling back  in a bullish trend.  Price forms somewhat of an inverted Head & Shoulders,  or three-pushes to a low sequence.

 Also, something which stood out for me was the symmetrical cycles which formed, wherein I harken back to the 'ol Stevenson PTT concept.  Red lines are targets based off of the previous cycle and the purple line was the CTL which triggers a long entry.  I actually traded this for a tiny gain as I covered almost to the tick before it rocketed higher....very frustrating

bull squeeze

The day in the SPY as it unfolded.  The vertical lines correspond to buying points on negative TICK readings once the market began to consolidate, but the payoff wasn't very rewarding throughout the afternoon (scalps for 15-25-cents).
I had a resting bid in at $123.86 (corresponding to the 9:30 breakout point) and sold it at IB high only to buy back higher (around vwap) as the market character began to change (forming that triangular seed wave).  The position was taken off in full acci-fucking-dentally! near the highs of the day on an extreme TICK (meant to only take half).  All-in-all an extremely disappointing performance today on a day that rewarded patience.

unreal

Have been watching this 3d set up on the SPY weekly figuring it might initiate a long signal in a week or so, but today's daily action was a trigger to enter long.  A pullback on the daily may take a while, but this higher time frame momentum wave is a doozy if there is follow-through overhead. 

Review

Continuation move off of the previous day's late afternoon momentum.
Some points to observe:
1). Opening gap-fill followed by a rally, notice how the A/D pulls back to the zero line, finding support.
2). First failed higher high & low on a waning TICK & A/D line.
3). Price pulls back to vwap on an extreme negative TICK reading (also coinciding with a 50% retracement of the opening momentum, as well as a pullback in the A/D line to +200 support, which is a bit better than neutral, a moderately bullish breadth. 
4). Price attempts to extend the rally but fails at the initial lower high's breakdown point.
5). A higher low for both price and TICK at vwap (which coincides with a previous higher low & breakout point).  Also continued support at the +200 A/D line leading to a triangle in price.
6). Triangle fails to break higher and A/D line fails to hold support (which then turns to resistance).  Leading to an A-B-C corrective wave.
7). Lower lows in TICK higher lows in price.  A seed wave forms on a +TICK divergence (support at the A/D zero-line as well).
8) Price rallies higher to test upward breakdown levels (shorts covering as a higher low becomes more confirmed).  Also, the A/D line runs back to +200 where it pulls back off of (on an extreme +TICK reading), then attempts to break again, but fails.  Price settles nearly to the penny of where it opened.  Nothing gained, nothing lost and yet consisting of so much drama.

trend

One of highest probability trades out there;  entering on a pullback of strongly trending price (I added the ADX in there to show the degree of trend in case it's not obvious from the Moving Averages, but it can be useful as a component for an intraday scan).
The vertical lines on the 5-min chart indicate possible triggers to entry (if you need an indicator for that) or for a more aggressive entry, one could fade a red fast line reading on the 5-min.   The best entries coincide with a pullback to the origin of the breakout (notice the large reverse divergence on the 5-min chart).
Of the 4 vertical lines (entries), only 1 would have resulted in a loss or break-even trade.  The third entry never hit the ATR stop placement. 

The SPY didn't have as strong of an ADX reading as that of TLT but still provided the same concept as that above.  Look to fade higher price (green fast line)

But look to fade it in an area that corresponds with what can be considered a resistance level or overbought conditions (extreme TICK).
As the fast line goes green the first time a test of vwap corresponded to a new TICK high which was faded (though the payoff was a higher low).  The second push higher tested the 9:15 breakdown point on extreme TICKs and went to test the lows.

As an aside, I did take the 3d long entry towards the end of the day.  Price went beyond my stop by 4-cents before hitting both the 50% & 100% projections (though be it in a very choppy move).

scalpy

A day for scalping.
Here are some snapshots which I found relevant throughout the day.
Charts arranged by S&P500 advance/decline differetial (left), the SPY (middle), and NYSE TICK (right)
First, about an hour into the day.  A/D pullback to zero on extreme TICK reading was a good fade.

 Next, a consolidation on the A/D line with a wedge in the SPY on TICK divergence.

The ensuing "rally"/squeeze  back to the A/D zero line coinciding with the previous SPY breakdown point.  Interestingly, a very large block trade at these prices and extreme TICK ended up foreshadowing a fading interest in higher prices.

Finally, later into the day price broke down and all extreme +TICK readings worked for a good fade (arrows down closely align with block trades, seen at the very bottom of the middle chart).

Extreme bearish sentiment from the Open. Was a tough day.  All I have today is hindsight and these two charts.
A really good example of a Price/TICK divergence off of the 10:30 (CST) lows.  Also, extreme +TICK readings were good for fade scalps up until the sentiment shift.

And the sentiment shift occurring at noon on volume which compared to that of the earlier lows.

Adv/Decl line

Worth watching intraday is the S&P500 Advance-Decline issues differential; whether it is positive or negative on the day and its interplay with the zero-line.
Just some snapshots here to show how it behaves, starting with today and going back to Monday:

Stayed positive most of the day and supported by the zero-line

Negative all day and extremely negative the later part of the day. When this extreme it works well to fade extreme NYSE TICK readings (around +800) for scalp trades.

Bullish breakout

 Interesting to see volume spikes that turn the market.  Here the A/D line showed a false breakout of the zero-line.

again, this is given even greater perspective using the NYSE TICK confirming with divergences or negative vs. positive A/D breadth

and here's Monday.  This week saw a positive (bullish) A/D line on only 2 days, today being one of them.

momentum pullback short

First short entry closed for a small loss.  Second worked much better.

decent setups

SPY - First two trades for 1R, last two for 3R.  Really don't know why I didn't keep a small position on through the end of the day targeting that 50% projection off of the open gap.

UCO - 2c long setup followed by a 2b short setup.  Covered the 2c long due to distraction.

Buy strength

AAPL was really strong from the open, and got very frothy as it was about to break out from the IB high.  A very smooth trade.

Bear Trap

I'll admit, I wasn't very productive during this squeeze.  Got short twice in the morning, one was a break-even trade the other a full stop-out (stop was set at $125.41, the high of the swing was $125.42).  The long entry was simply a move back to the IB high just to recoup losses from the stopped out short trade.

Had I been paying attention to the 30-min time frame in time, I would have noticed the 3d setup taking place

2c pullback

Mentioned last week about the 2c pullback trade.
I took a very small position at the first entry and exited at the first resistance level for 2R (price came within 3-cents of 3R fwiw).

ignoring signals

Was thinking GLD would break down further than it did. 
The two short entries were taken off at b/e.
I didn't take the 3d long entry (inverse H&S), which of course paid off well.

gap down

A gap down below one of Friday's support levels.  Continued rejection of the Open as we went sideways for over 2-hours on the SPY leading to a break down to test previous support; reaching a 200% projection of the Open vs. Previous day's Close on a momentum buy divergence.  Toward the end of the day we got a 3d long entry (3-pushes to a low) on tweezer lows. 
5 trade entries today ("R" based on the ATR of the 5-min chart):
1. Short stopped out at slightly higher than b/e.
2. Short worked for 3R.  Was looking for the 4d-4c continuation short as I was in the first trade.
3. Stopped out full (1R).  Looking for re-test of lows.
4. Short worked for 3R.  Looking for re-test of lows
5. Based on 3d long entry.  Exited full at the 50% projection because I thought we might roll over with the strength in TLT.  But price tagged the 100% projection anyway (was a 3R trade as well).

Just some notes.
Extreme advancing day on Friday.
The profitability of the day was really over by 10:00 CST unless you wanted to scalp for dimes.  The best secondary move came between 11:30-12:00.
$127 was the line in the sand overhead (missed it by 1-cent initially and the re-test missed by 2-cents).

A lot of little air pockets and island reversals these past few weeks.  Looks like it will take some juice to get to $130 but the MO of this market has been; If there is resistance, just gap above it.

Could Go Either Way

It is as if the markets are waiting on any headline to send it in either direction.
A price dip was bought today, yet again, and was just able to recover above its 20-day moving average.  There is a gap overhead which would be healthy to fill, but wouldn't necessarily entice a direction either way.

Looking for clues: 
The TLT fell below, but rallied back above, the $116 price today (on volume); a significant level in my opinion.

The U.S. Dollar Index held a shallow retrace within its previous bullish momentum.  It still looks somewhat messy, but seems to be attempting to establish a higher low bottoming process.

Crude Oil has been trending higher (on waning momentum) and mimicking the move of the broader markets.  At this point it seems to want to test the psychologically important $100-mark at which time it could be telling in terms of exactly how much supply is at that level.

The EURUSD has exhibited selling strength on every rally higher since June.  Lower highs looking to test lower lows.

So, we have the S&P500 treading water to stay above 1220, the U.S. Dollar Index trying to establish higher lows, whereas every Euro rally has been sold, the bond market holding higher (lower yields), hinting that "risk" is not quite back on, and Crude Oil coming into overhead resistance (still a lower high) after trending down since May.  So, you decide, but things appear to be coiling.

3d rollover

Came across this trade but was late to take it or I likely would have entered long. Price did reach a 50% projection off of the small seed wave but failed to follow-through.
Something to always remember is that when a 3d long entry fails it can often set up a roll-over short entry.

The 3d setup also presented itself later in the day across a number of issues.  Here, in the SPY I entered long but scratched the trade as price faded off of the 50% projection.  However, I didn't take the "roll-over" aspect of this setup as we were going in to the last 30-minutes of the day.

Momentum gap

Momentum (gap down), pullback, extend.  The picture-perfect "First Cross" sell signal today (First Cross sell being the slow line crossing zero and selling the first pullback in the fast line.  Interestingly enough, yesterday gave a near perfect mirror setup with a First Cross buy signal).

update

Updated chart from yesterday's SPY chart

Higher t/f

Looking at the higher time frame Daily chart of the SPY.
The 3/10macd is indicating a potential 2b short setup (fast line has to tick down) with a 3-push pattern.
Either we get a bullish day which initiates another cycle of buying higher, or we get a bearish rejection candle leading to a corrective move lower (would confirm with the fast line closing red on the 130-min) and may even lead to a breakdown of the purple trend line on the daily chart.
(Upon looking at this again I believe it is mislabeled.  The 2-push should be moved over one hump to the left and the "3-push" should be located where the "2-push" is).

2c long, 2b short

  The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it.  I use this criteria as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price.  I trade the 15-minute time frame with the 5-minute to trigger me into a trade.

  The 2c setup again, as presented in previous posts, here & here. 
  Things to look for; Reverse Divergence on 15-min.  Inverse Head & Shoulders, possibly a 3d setup on the 5min chart with a seed wave price pattern.

GLD presented the 2c long setup as well, but then rolled over giving a 2b short setup.
  Look for the 4c-to-4d short setup on the 5min chart that coincides with a trend line break.

repeat

Similar market behavior as the previous day where fading extreme negative TICK readings (-800 with volume support) throughout the day worked well.

Gap-down selling found support (again) at the previous week's Open, coinciding with a demand level from the day before as well as a 100% projection off of the gap (previous day's Close to today's Open).
Earlier in the week I highlighted the 2c setup and the reverse divergence, which is what we got this morning.  Notice how the 5-min 3/10 macd forms a 3-push divergence and then triggers a 3d setup giving us a seed wave.

Gap Fill Squeeze higher

This has all happened before, it will all happen again. We get a jolt of volume which is followed by a steep rising wedge/channel higher.

A nice gap-fill in the morning followed be a market with zero selling pressure.

Every pullback in the TICK to -500 or lower was a buying opportunity (bottom histogram is just a smoothed indicator of the TICK).