thu. 12_1

DIA - made a lower low.  Tomorrow's open should determine whether the daily is diverging from the momentum indicator.  The hourly showing a small inverted H&S so a breakout from the neckline could see a move at least back to $159

IWM - Holding the 50-day MA with a small doji around the previous day's close.  A good example of the "XYZ - corrective wave" which stands out really well with the 3/10macd.

As an aside; in both the DIA and IWM above there are pitchforks which came close to, but did not touch their midline.  According to Andrews there is then the expectancy that price should move to the "trigger line" (shown in fuchsia).

The QQQ has still not tagged it's 20-day MA (sign of strength) and is trying to hold the double-bottom at $85.  I would suspect that immediate lower prices will get bought.

SPY has support below from the previous breakout area in November

The buying momentum today was pretty strong coming after a "triple swing divergence".  This large momentum is registers a reverse divergence and so the fade from that move could be pretty strong.  I would assume lower lows will be bought and a gap up (178.70 perhaps?) might get chased.  Previous triple swing divergence-turned-momentum-fade was 12/4; new lows were bought sharply but it needed a day to consolidate.

For now, there are lower highs and in some cases lower lows in place.  But buyers will begin to nibble and squeezes in both directions are likely to take place.

Mon. 10_01

Gap nearly above previous day, "news driven" momentum, all erased by the close.
Pretty decent negative TICK compared to what we've been seeing.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:     

Advance/Decline came back to the zero-line.

15m &5m with 3/10macd.  2c-2d criteria into the Open, also anticipated around noon, except price rolled-over.  

Two more views of the SPY;
zoomed-out of the above chart:

A 30-minute chart which was posted last week.  "BD" = BreakDown, "T2R" = Tried to Recover.  Black moving average is the 10-day, green moving average is the 20-day MA.

Below is the Daily with 130-minute.  So far a failed attempt to continue the trend progression.  Daily showing 2c-2d criteria (though the "higher" momentum reading as seen through the fast line is happening under negative price development, and a fresh momentum low followed by price weakness isn't very positive).  It looked like the faster time frame was setting up to go higher, but price couldn't overcome the $145.50 breakdown point.  

Wed. 9_12

Today's SPY with TICK.

Indications given to TICK divergences at meaningful price levels:
First Up arrow - higher TICK low on lower low in price just above overnight low.
First down arrow - High TICK of the day on a lower price high at the Opening price
Second down arrow - Higher high in price lower high in TICK at the opening swing high and just shy of IB_high.
Second up arrow - Lower low in price higher low in TICK (both sequentially and for the day), hammer candle at overnight low again and near gap fill.

A good example of the A/D-line bouncing at zero

Here's a messy one - this chart is to highlight the 3/10macd and looking to trade a continuation move, which is reflected in the fast line correcting off of the slow line.  A bullish continuation move is labeled A-B-C
while a bearish wave is labeled X-Y-Z.  Essentially, I'm looking to position myself after the "B" point (bullish) in anticipation of at least the C point (re-test), but hopefully more (the continuation).  Likewise, if bearish, I'm looking to position myself around or after the "Y" point, in order to anticipate a re-test of support or continuation beyond.

So, going into this morning we had a gap up (bullish momentum) giving us our "A" point.  We then corrected ("B") then tried to test resistance "C".  The 5-minute chart on the right shows an entry long, which was exited just above vwap after failure of the opening price.
The first down arrow reflects a short entry for anticipation of the "Z"  aspect of an XYZ wave.  More or less a scratch trade.
Second up arrow, a long entry in anticipation of the C1 move resulting from the A1-B1-C1 wave (also inverse H&S (sort of) on 5min).  Not a premium exit, the rejection was pretty quick.
Two down arrows because I scaled back and then went back in between those two bars (amateur).  Fib projection showing price targets.  This short was based on anticipation of the X2-Y2-Z2 wave.

repeat

The SPY has been repeating a similar cycle for the past two weeks.
Following a short squeeze type of rally, price has then rolled over in an XYZ corrective wave.
The 3/10macd 3a criteria describes price as testing resistance.  Should resistance break and price goes higher the fast line shows greater momentum and the slow line is often pulled positive.  This behavior can often begin a new trend.  However, rather then a trend developing, what we have seen is price being sold and correcting most/all of the previous gains.
Here are two looks at what I'm talking about, the latter just highlighting the XYZ waves

A broader look in the chart below; we haven't gone very far, but there are clear areas to watch