Showing posts with label zday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label zday. Show all posts
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Monday, March 8, 2010
nr z-day
Friday being a trend day, we followed through to Monday with a narrow range "z-day" (consolidation/oscillating day). A pointer (as far as L. Raschke teaches anyway) for these z-days is to watch the last hour's low (in the case of a trend day up) for potential support (or the most significant swing low in that 3:00pm area). In today's case, we came close, but didn't quite test that last hour trend day low.
If you're able to stand the noise and focus on objectives, a z-day may also entail fading strength/weakness by perhaps using Bollinger Bands as a guide. While today's early morning range was very choppy between the highs and the Open, the lows of the day were put in near Friday's last hour low in the form of a Phoenix setup.
Today was a day where we just oscillated around vwap, so it may have been a good strategy to just play the extremes away from vwap by looking for TICK divergences and cover when reverting to the mean.
The first divergence of the day was a reverse divergence (higher TICK highs corresponding with lower price highs). The "Phoenix setup mentioned above was done on a TICK buy divergence, while the later afternoon test of the highs registered a TICK sell divergence.
I was alerted (reading the starwealth blog) to the fact that we may find ourselves in a bearish Wolfe Wave pattern. If this is the case we need to see a strong volume push (at the very least) into this 5-point, around $115.
After looking at the chart above I wanted to add in the Stevenson PTT for old time sake, because the cycles really jump out at you. Currently we're in an Inverted Cycle and it's a toss-up as to which will be achieved first; the breach of the CTL beginning a Regular Cycle down, or the Price & Time Target at the $116 level (read more about how these targets and triggers are obtained by reading the link above for Stevenson PTT.
If you're able to stand the noise and focus on objectives, a z-day may also entail fading strength/weakness by perhaps using Bollinger Bands as a guide. While today's early morning range was very choppy between the highs and the Open, the lows of the day were put in near Friday's last hour low in the form of a Phoenix setup.Today was a day where we just oscillated around vwap, so it may have been a good strategy to just play the extremes away from vwap by looking for TICK divergences and cover when reverting to the mean.
The first divergence of the day was a reverse divergence (higher TICK highs corresponding with lower price highs). The "Phoenix setup mentioned above was done on a TICK buy divergence, while the later afternoon test of the highs registered a TICK sell divergence.I was alerted (reading the starwealth blog) to the fact that we may find ourselves in a bearish Wolfe Wave pattern. If this is the case we need to see a strong volume push (at the very least) into this 5-point, around $115.
After looking at the chart above I wanted to add in the Stevenson PTT for old time sake, because the cycles really jump out at you. Currently we're in an Inverted Cycle and it's a toss-up as to which will be achieved first; the breach of the CTL beginning a Regular Cycle down, or the Price & Time Target at the $116 level (read more about how these targets and triggers are obtained by reading the link above for Stevenson PTT.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Fri. 9/25
We ended the week with an inside and down candle and we sit on a short-term trend-line support.
With a trend-day down yesterday, we needed to keep a watch on how price reacts to both the previous day's low (PDL), the open, and the high's of the last hour of trading (LHH).
We could have anticipated a choppy beginning so it's important not to have any knee-jerk reactions. Our gap down sold right into the PDL on mediocre TICK. We snapped back up until price began to test the last hour's highs on fading TICK, bringing price lower.
The low of the day registered a momentum buy divergence, eventually closing right on top of my support pivot.
With a trend-day down yesterday, we needed to keep a watch on how price reacts to both the previous day's low (PDL), the open, and the high's of the last hour of trading (LHH).
We could have anticipated a choppy beginning so it's important not to have any knee-jerk reactions. Our gap down sold right into the PDL on mediocre TICK. We snapped back up until price began to test the last hour's highs on fading TICK, bringing price lower.
The low of the day registered a momentum buy divergence, eventually closing right on top of my support pivot.
Friday, July 24, 2009
strong finish
A narrow-range consolidation day. After such a strong trending move the day before, I was watching the last hour's high and low from Thursday as possible support/resistance. Being that we gaped down, I was looking for a move back to the last hour's low. We got such a move off of a momentum buy divergence and as the slow line in the 3/10 macd was crossing the zero-line I was looking for a "First Cross" Buy entry (highlighted with the ellipse).
We ended up basing around that previous day's Last Hour's Low (also Highs of the day), before breaking to the upside, where we closed on the highs of the day/week. On this faster time frame we can see how price continues to test this level as it acts as resistance before claiming support (RbS). Notice the TICK divergences between the 1st and 2nd attempt compared to the 2nd and 3rd attempt.
So, we finish the week with strength, but also building divergence (weakening momentum). If we make a push towards S&P1000 next week, especially if it's on momentum that's even weaker yet, we may see some retracement follow.
We've built value on this entire climb up (represented by these narrow-range "fat"-bodies). 
We ended up basing around that previous day's Last Hour's Low (also Highs of the day), before breaking to the upside, where we closed on the highs of the day/week. On this faster time frame we can see how price continues to test this level as it acts as resistance before claiming support (RbS). Notice the TICK divergences between the 1st and 2nd attempt compared to the 2nd and 3rd attempt.
So, we finish the week with strength, but also building divergence (weakening momentum). If we make a push towards S&P1000 next week, especially if it's on momentum that's even weaker yet, we may see some retracement follow.
We've built value on this entire climb up (represented by these narrow-range "fat"-bodies). 
Friday, July 17, 2009
opex friday
We worked off our Overbought conditions through sideways price behavior (as opposed to retracing lower). Today's SPY trading was an nr7 (narrowest range of the past few months actually), also on the lowest volume of the year, but it did need the time to digest previous gains.
A trade I didn't make today, but want to keep in mind for future reference is fading the highs of the day on such a narrow range day following a trending move of the previous day (or days).
Later in the day (just before 2pm) we tested the highs which coincided with a break through the keltner channel. In a day other than a z-day we could suspect this move to be an impulse move to the upside and look to get long. However, being that this day was a suspected consolidation day, the higher probability play would be to fade the highs of the day.
As such, we had the breakout through the keltner channel (high of the day) and volume came in (dots, above/below candles), selling price back to our pivot point. It's tricky in the sense that our momentum indicator is showing a higher high, and the pattern looks like a bull flag setting up. But if you are suspecting a bull flag you would be waiting for price to close above the flag "pole" for one. So while you're waiting for this flag confirmation you start to see price testing down, rather than up and we get the lowest close over the last three bars, you can then suspect that the volume you see is actually selling, not buying.
Anyway, there's no guarantee we'll make new highs next week, but things are shaping up for a test of that $96 range. The market profile shows how we spent all day establishing value in this narrow range:
A trade I did make today involved FAS; can you pick out the high probability trade in this chart?
The setup on this chart allowed for a very tight stop, right below a narrow consolidation point that came after an impulse move, here's a closer look:
A trade I didn't make today, but want to keep in mind for future reference is fading the highs of the day on such a narrow range day following a trending move of the previous day (or days). Later in the day (just before 2pm) we tested the highs which coincided with a break through the keltner channel. In a day other than a z-day we could suspect this move to be an impulse move to the upside and look to get long. However, being that this day was a suspected consolidation day, the higher probability play would be to fade the highs of the day.
As such, we had the breakout through the keltner channel (high of the day) and volume came in (dots, above/below candles), selling price back to our pivot point. It's tricky in the sense that our momentum indicator is showing a higher high, and the pattern looks like a bull flag setting up. But if you are suspecting a bull flag you would be waiting for price to close above the flag "pole" for one. So while you're waiting for this flag confirmation you start to see price testing down, rather than up and we get the lowest close over the last three bars, you can then suspect that the volume you see is actually selling, not buying.Anyway, there's no guarantee we'll make new highs next week, but things are shaping up for a test of that $96 range. The market profile shows how we spent all day establishing value in this narrow range:
A trade I did make today involved FAS; can you pick out the high probability trade in this chart?
The setup on this chart allowed for a very tight stop, right below a narrow consolidation point that came after an impulse move, here's a closer look:
Thursday, July 9, 2009
nrC
SPY had a Narrow range consolidation.
We basically bounced around between pivot and R1 for the day. After the first hour of the morning I was suspecting a consolidation day and thinking of a z-day scalping setup.
I learned of this technique through a Linda Raschke presentation and it deals with scalping the narrow range moves inherent in a z-day, buying/selling using Bollinger Bands and it's midline as a guide.
I didn't trade this set-up, as it is new to me, but it's worth documenting for my own good. Being that we could have expected a narrow-range consolidation day (after the previous few sessions trending down) and we had an established level of support at $88 that also coincided with our sessions pivot point level it seemed safer to buy $88 rather than short it. We also had these levels coinciding with a lower Bollinger Band, how many more signals do we need? So, we were looking to buy $88 at the lower B.Band and selling at least half at the midline (perhaps holding half in case it has enough strength to continue back to the other B.Band extreme). So, here's what it looks like, I like using the 3-min chart for these scalping setups.
Later in the day (last hour to hour and a half) we could suspect there may be a follow-through move in one direction or another. This happened after the last red arrow in the chart above (these highs of the day corresponded with R1 that is not indicated on this chart). After price was rejected at R1 and outside of the B.Band we had further downside that consolidated into a flag that could have given greater comfort in holding a position to wait for more downside, or get back in on the short side if you had already exited at the midline.
Two things about today's session stand out for me; one is the fat body of the Market Profile (fat bodies tend to expand with a relatively strong move).
Also, looking at the 60-min chart, price looks to have made a test of the Head & Shoulders neckline that looks an awful lot like there could be more downside ahead.
We basically bounced around between pivot and R1 for the day. After the first hour of the morning I was suspecting a consolidation day and thinking of a z-day scalping setup.
I learned of this technique through a Linda Raschke presentation and it deals with scalping the narrow range moves inherent in a z-day, buying/selling using Bollinger Bands and it's midline as a guide.
I didn't trade this set-up, as it is new to me, but it's worth documenting for my own good. Being that we could have expected a narrow-range consolidation day (after the previous few sessions trending down) and we had an established level of support at $88 that also coincided with our sessions pivot point level it seemed safer to buy $88 rather than short it. We also had these levels coinciding with a lower Bollinger Band, how many more signals do we need? So, we were looking to buy $88 at the lower B.Band and selling at least half at the midline (perhaps holding half in case it has enough strength to continue back to the other B.Band extreme). So, here's what it looks like, I like using the 3-min chart for these scalping setups.
Later in the day (last hour to hour and a half) we could suspect there may be a follow-through move in one direction or another. This happened after the last red arrow in the chart above (these highs of the day corresponded with R1 that is not indicated on this chart). After price was rejected at R1 and outside of the B.Band we had further downside that consolidated into a flag that could have given greater comfort in holding a position to wait for more downside, or get back in on the short side if you had already exited at the midline.Two things about today's session stand out for me; one is the fat body of the Market Profile (fat bodies tend to expand with a relatively strong move).
Also, looking at the 60-min chart, price looks to have made a test of the Head & Shoulders neckline that looks an awful lot like there could be more downside ahead.
Monday, July 6, 2009
z-day
As could have been expected, today's day followed Friday's trend day. The SPY gaped down to S2, rallied back up to nearly fill the gap where it was met with resistance from the previous sessions lows.
The move down gave a nice buy divergence this morning at S2. Later in the day though brought on some nasty fake-out moves in both directions.
The plan for a z-day is to buy a bullish divergence at the extreme of the keltner channel, and play for a move back up to either the mid-line and/or the upper keltner channel.
The move down gave a nice buy divergence this morning at S2. Later in the day though brought on some nasty fake-out moves in both directions.
The plan for a z-day is to buy a bullish divergence at the extreme of the keltner channel, and play for a move back up to either the mid-line and/or the upper keltner channel.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)