The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at toddstrade@gmail.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.


Showing posts with label Fib projections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fib projections. Show all posts

Monday, September 24, 2012

SPY 9_24

SPY with TICK below..
Area of interest not highlighted includes around the 9:20am point, strong volume on a re-test of the o/s_high.
Worth noting;
 High TICK of the day at the o/n_high, followed by a negative TICK divergence.
 The midpoint acted as support with a second test showing a low TICK of the day on a higher low in price, followed by a lower low in price and higher low in TICK.
 Price tagged a 50% extension of the overnight range which coincided with a gap fill.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Advancing/Declining issues trended up all day after starting off strongly bearish.  Worth noting how the gap fill corresponded with a touch of the zero line on the A/D.
Up/Down volume trended down most of the day with the exception of the mild squeeze mid-afternoon.
SPY 15-min & 5min with 3/10macd.  Drawn on the 15-min are two Fib projections; one based on the momentum gap down and pullback, which could have been considered a bear flag, however the selling was capped at the 50% projection.  The next projected from the low of the day to the initial swing high and down to the midpoint.  Price achieved the 100% projection which corresponded with the 50SMA, a gap fill, and the 50% projection of the o/n_range (as shown in the chart above).
The highlighted region on the 15min indicates the 3d criteria.  I took two entries in anticipation of this setup, one around noon and the other about an hour later.  The noon long entry I exited with a small loss.  

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

AAPL potential

Just food for thought regarding AAPL
The weekly (right chart) bounced off a 38.2% Fib. retracement with a stark reverse divergence (2c-2d setup).  What is transpiring on the daily chart (left) is the potential 3d criteria which sets up the higher time frame follow-through.
Points for consideration:
  - Price holding the 50% retrace (roughly $555)
  - A breakout above the overhead down trend line leading to the $581 resistance mark.
  - First Fib. target of a 50% projection near the $608 level.

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

SPY 2d

-Bullish trend in place (20- & 50-MA slope & distance) and price above MA's.
-Pull back into a support area (in this case the previous day's high) which often registers as a reverse divergence.
-Double bottom into the later afternoon (can otherwise be an inverse H&S or 3-push to a low).
-Price returns back to the breakdown point (continues in the direction of the trend).
I use the term "2d setup" to define the above list of criteria, as mentioned in previous posts.  So here is what it looked like in the SPY today; as an aside, had price rolled over under $133 (around the 1:30-2:00 hour) this could have been a potential short:


And so price is in the reversion to a mean phase, in this case the 20-day MA, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement.  (Pay no attention to the lower wick on the chart below, it appears I have to clear my cache).

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

TLT projection

The TLT finally reached its 100% Fib. projection today off of the impulse seed wave formed back in April.

Monday, April 16, 2012

Mon. 4_15

Some setups from today.
Midday:
 NSC - Relative strength with a bull flag at previous day's resistance.  I missed the 1st up-arrow entry and entering up against the 50% projection (of the smaller seed wave) and so near the IB-high was a "short leash" trade.
Here is how it looked on a 3-time frame perspective.

NFLX - Seeing 3-pushes to a low on the 15-min and a small double-bottom on the 5-min at the IB-low the entry was long with a target of prior breakdown points that coincided with the 50% & 100% projections.  Got out too soon before price tagged the 100% projection

AMZN - into the close trade which didn't amount to much

I didn't take this SPY trade, but it fits a number of trading rule categories.
On Friday we broke down from a momentum bear flag and continued on that path today.  Price found support at the 50% projection (as well as various other technical price points) of that bear flag on a momentum buy divergence (15-min chart) with 3-pushes to a low (illustrated on the 5-min chart).  The 3-pushes formed an inverse H&S (or seed wave) and achieved the 50% projection, overshooting to tag the morning's breakdown point at $137.68.