The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at toddstrade@gmail.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.


Showing posts with label treasuries. Show all posts
Showing posts with label treasuries. Show all posts

Thursday, May 6, 2010

omen?

The first 1,000-point range in the Dow since October of 2008. A sign of things to come?
Support was tested in a matter of minutes as the carry trade unwindsI wrote last night how the Euro looked desperate to test 1.25, who would have guessed that it would happen in less than 24-hours.Gold closed on it's highs today (using the ETF GLD) and looks ready to test an inverted roof pattern measured move. However, as the futures were closed when the panic occurred today, we'll have to see the reaction in the morning.Also, a key to watch will be how Treasuries react from here...using the ETF (TLT), over $100 has signaled panicked flight to safety in the past.Interesting, the likeness between the above chart and that of the VIX
The NYSE TICK hit a low of -1875 today (the lowest reading over the last 10-years, as far as I've seen). It certainly seemed fade-able, until the circuits broke 15-minutes later.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

50-day

The SPY and QQQQ both bounced on their 50-day Moving Averages.
It will be interesting to see where buyers step in from here. The Q's got help from the 50-day, but there's also a previous resistance level (Resistance becomes Support) going back to '08.The SPY got support from it's 50-day, but there's also a previous congestion zone that supported price. The next level down is around $115, which would still put price at a "healthy correction" level.
The Dow seems to be creating these 200-point congestion zones. In the grand scale of things, we could get a correction back to the 200-MA on all indexes and still put in a higher low.
Meanwhile, the Dollar has some overhead resistance approaching in the form of a Fibonacci Extension confluence, as well as a previous support level (not shown).Here's a look at the SPY vs. TLT correlation. A test and continuation of their respective trendlines was a telling sign.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Just some charts

The inverse correlation between bonds and equities continues. The chart below using TLT and SPY as a proxy for Treasuries and the S&P respectively:Curiously, the 10-yr just broke down from an Andrews Trigger Line

The SPY just keeps creeping up the Lower Median Line as
And the Q's, well a move up into the warning zone (right around $50) in the past has resulted in some unbearably choppy price behavior.