The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at toddstrade@gmail.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.


Showing posts with label Fib. Projections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fib. Projections. Show all posts

Friday, May 25, 2012

overnight range

  If you follow any market with active overnight/pre-market trading this is probably elementary to you, but I thought I would highlight the significance for those that may not be aware.  Knowing where the market traded before Regular Trading Hours (RTH) begin is incredibly useful in framing the context of where price is, or where it may want to go (after all, it is an auction process that tests back and forth to gauge interest in higher/lower prices).
  So, before the market opens at 9:30a.m. EST (8:30 CST my time) I frame the highs and lows of the pre-market in the SPY.  These levels are indicated by purple horizontal lines in the charts that follow (where p/m_H refers to pre-market Highs and p/m_L refers to pre-market Lows).  The vertical blue dash line indicates the open of RTH.  In the chart below we can see how closely this compares with the futures globex market on the right (the E-mini S&P in this example):


Along with the p/m_H & p/m_L I like to extend Fibonacci projections off these levels in 50% increments.  So, starting with trade from Monday May 21 here we have the SPY with pre-market included.
Monday was a trend day up, but notice how price behaved at both the p/m_L & p/m_H before breaking out:

Tuesday May 22nd; a test higher (just beyond a 50% projection of the overnight range) and a test lower (nearly to the penny of a 50% projection) before settling back around the previous day's close

Wednesday May 23rd; A narrower overnight range where on the open the p/_H was rejected and price moved swiftly lower to a 100% projection of the overnight range.  Eventually however, price rallied higher, extending to the 100% projection on the upside (notice how it gets caught up on the p/m_L, needing to pull back before it can take off).

Thursday May 24:  A very wide o/n range and being a range-bound market in this instance, price tests both extremes:

Friday May 25; A quiet pre-holiday environment where price based along the p/m_L for most of the afternoon before breaking lower and reversing on the 50% projection.

Anyway, to get an idea of where you're going it helps to know where you've been.

Thursday, May 24, 2012

SPY retrace

The SPY held a 50% retrace of the most recent momentum.  While spending most of the day pulling back and consolidating, price extended higher into the close.
  The 5-min chart includes the after-market (indicated by blue dash vertical line) to show the follow-through.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

GOOG trades

I never really trade GOOG, but these past two days worked out for some trades.
First of all, Monday was a strong day for GOOG.  Yesterday price gaped down, but held a 50% retracement of the previous day.  For most of the morning price coiled within a narrow range before breaking out to fill the gap.  The original plan was for a trade only to the IB-high, but given the strength of the breakout the Fib. projection targets were in play.  This was close to a 3d long setup while the higher time frame was the 2d setup. (One entry and two exits).

Today, was a bit choppier for me.  There are a number of up/down arrows in the early session showing entries/stop-outs.  The first was a break-even trade, the second a stop-out of 85-cents/share.

Meanwhile, today's move fulfilled a 50% projection of Monday's momentum:

This was actually a great example of a 2d setup occurring on the higher time frame, therefore a swing trade.
Going back to the first week of March the Daily chart set up the 2d criteria while the faster time frame gave an entry around $609.  Today's price action came within $0.63 of hitting the 200% Fib. projection from the initial momentum wave occurring between March 6-12th and filled the gap left from January 9th.

Friday, February 3, 2012

there ya have it

Following the NFP report this morning the ES has just now tagged the 100% projection (1339) off our original seed wave.  As you can see in the previous posts, this seed wave projection comes off of the head-to-right shoulder (3d setup) from a few days ago.  It also coincides with a 200% projection of our faster time frame (15-min) momentum wave.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Monday, November 14, 2011

gap down

A gap down below one of Friday's support levels.  Continued rejection of the Open as we went sideways for over 2-hours on the SPY leading to a break down to test previous support; reaching a 200% projection of the Open vs. Previous day's Close on a momentum buy divergence.  Toward the end of the day we got a 3d long entry (3-pushes to a low) on tweezer lows. 
5 trade entries today ("R" based on the ATR of the 5-min chart):
1. Short stopped out at slightly higher than b/e.
2. Short worked for 3R.  Was looking for the 4d-4c continuation short as I was in the first trade.
3. Stopped out full (1R).  Looking for re-test of lows.
4. Short worked for 3R.  Looking for re-test of lows
5. Based on 3d long entry.  Exited full at the 50% projection because I thought we might roll over with the strength in TLT.  But price tagged the 100% projection anyway (was a 3R trade as well).


Tuesday, August 30, 2011

updates

Two quick updates to previous posts regarding the SPY.
First the obvious;  Price continues to squeeze higher but has yet to tag the Fib. projections that I drew out in this post

Meanwhile, the follow-up to this post regarding the higher time frame 3d setup that triggered on Aug. 23 came within 45-cents today of tagging the first target, the 50% Fib. projection.  Price seems to be struggling to move higher at this point and as such a pullback wouldn't be surprising. 

Reached the 50% projection of the intermediate seed wave:

Saturday, August 27, 2011

confluence

Should price break to the upside next week the SPY has a confluence target overhead that includes the 50-day MA (first test of this Moving Average in over a month) as well as a 50% & 100% Fib. projection based on the two underlying seed waves present (A-B-C & C-D-E).  This area also happens to align with a measured move of the symmetrical triangle and an untested gap that was left at the close of that green hammer day.

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

50%

Posted the other day was a chart of the SPY Fib. projections off of the lows.  It took a while (not really a sign of strength) to tag the 50% projection where it turned sharply lower (also, obviously, not a sign of encouraging strength).

Monday, July 18, 2011

same setups

Three trades, all of the same ilk. 
Counter-trend bottoming formations.
Seed wave patterns with a 50% correction forming the higher low.  Targets being the 50% & 100% projections.
SPY

GS - If you notice, the inverted hammer candlestick IS a seed wave unto itself.
FCX