Wed. 11_20

Watching the faster time frame to clue us in to further upside (or downside).
The daily 3/10macd fast line will either tick up from here (1b to 1a) or cross the slow line and likely trigger a steeper correction (1b to 2c).  Looking to the faster time frame (hourly chart on right) we would like to see the fast line on the 3/10macd cross the slow line and turn positive to go long (which would then turn the fast line up on the daily chart.

Wed 11_13

We've been waiting for the 3/10macd fast line and slow line to catch up with one another again, which will probably take place on tomorrow's open.  By that time, the move is stretched and one would be buying late into that time frame.  So, we need a way to anticipate this potential move by clueing off of a faster time frame.
Here is the Daily (left) 1H (middle) and 15-min time frames

Momentum is in progress, and the only thing to look out for would be lack of follow-through once the first round of selling has occurred.  It is Options Expiration week and anything can happen.

Just looking at the higher time frames things are still pretty bullish.
This Daily chart has two macd indicators.  The bottom is the standard 3/10-macd that reflects the Daily time frame; the one above it is a macd that reflects a time frame three times slower (closely mimics the weekly 3/10 macd).
Included are potential entry considerations for the daily time frame.  The highlighted regions are indicating like occurrences, in this case, where the fast line was less than the slow line once the fast line turned back up to positive from negative .  So the most recent long "triggers" have taken place, but since the fast line is less than the slow line I would look to exit on the daily fast line ticking back down, the way it did in August.

Mon 03_18

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Indications of trade opportunity

A breakdown of where we are:

The Daily: gap down price pullbacks that show closes off of the lows (likely short covering as price has yet to scare out larger positions).  Coming into the 20-day MA which coincides with March 5th gap ($153.65 area).  3/10macd anticipation of 1b-1a (continuation of prevailing trend) or 2c (deeper pullback).

A slight timeframe faster, the 130min (3-bars per day) showing 2c and trading between the 20- & 50-period MA's.  Price needing to recover $155.50s, potential steeper pullback to $154?

65min: 3/10macd showing potential 3-push scenario, which can mean an inverse H&S or the potential for a lower low but on lighter momentum.

30-min showing a little clearer the inverse Head & Shoulder potential.  Also, the 3/10macd shows potential for the 3d criteria long setup (Using the 130min paired with the 30min you would have a 2c-2d criteria higher time frame with 3d criteria faster time frame which I treat as bullish.  Still, you would need the 30-min fast line to go green for an entry).

Also worth noting price trading under the 5- & 10-DAY moving averages (purple and black lines respectively).

Basically looking at $155.50 above to be bullish.  Further bearish behavior I'd be looking towards the $153.65 support while giving some credibility to potential double bottom support near today's lows.

Tue. 02_12

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Didn't take the two trades that mattered today (1 really)

The only bearish development is this higher time frame where the fast line is rolling over underneath the slow line (2b-2c potential).  Looks like it can go either way into tomorrow, but plenty of support below.

Even on the higher time frames, there are slight divergences showing up (though price can still squeeze higher), it just feels like a sneeze can give us at least a whopping 1-2% correction.

The thing is, we're heading into double-top territory, and the odds favor the bears on a first test of a previous highs, the Risk:Reward just favors that direction. You would think, as stretched as we are, that a rejection would be pretty strong (irregardless of whether we come back to test the rejection and/or build a base at it.
The other side is we blow right through these levels, forcing more and more shorts to cover and end up with a climax high after being very stretched

Fri 01_11

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

SPY spent the day coiling...Going into Options Expiration next week will likely bring some volatility into the market.  Bonds (TLT) and SPY finished their day on the highs.

A lot of scratch trades today.  Should have been more assertive in the morning short trade setup based on the 5-min zig-zag corrective pattern.

Only thing that has changed on this higher time frame is the 65-min 3/10macd having a fast line less than the slow line.  But when you have to squint to even see the 3/10macd that's not entirely bearish (volatility has become very compressed).
The last up-arrow on the 15-min chart (below, right) would be a consideration entry for the higher time frame (65min) anticipation of the 3/10macd going from 1b-to-1a criteria (and what we would like to see is a proper breakout of the previous highs).

Thu 01_03

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Didn't do much today.  Contemplated a long around 12:30 and a short around 1pm, but didn't take them.  The long at end of day was a scalp; entered $145.38 and partial exits taken at 145.53, 145.60, & 145.55 (look at 3min chart above for reasoning behind entries/exits).

Not much has changed on the higher time frame.  Dips will be bought.  Anticipating 1a or 2c-2d criteria to set up on the 65min chart

Thu. 9_27

SPY reclaiming the 20-day MA

SPY with TICK below.  Morning selling capped off at the overnight lows.  First test of the open swing high was rejected but later broke out from this range.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:     

Advance/Decline started off strong this morning while the Up/Down volume trended higher all day

15-min and 5-min with 3/10macd below.  Slow line back to positive with a breakout of the previous range.  

no trigger

I've been posting this potential long setup in the SPY higher time frame over the past few days. Here & Here.
We never did get a trigger entry on the 130min chart, instead price rolled over.  Still potential for a 3rd push buying opportunity, which would need to show strong momentum.

Here's how it looked on a slightly faster time frame.  Notice how the fast line rolled over on the 30-min chart after giving up $146.

monday 1_9

2c setup in AAPL today didn't quite work out for me. Original stop was $0.80 which would not have gotten hit until the $425-test failure. However, I took a 10-cent loss on the position as I was looking for more of a squeeze move higher from my entry.

NFLX just continues to squeeze. If there is one pattern combination of Moving Averages and 3/10macd this is it.  Exited 10-min before the close.

Fri. 12/09

Today's SPY the opposite of Thursday.  
Nice setups off of Support/Resistance

FCX - A risky trade in the sense that there seemed to be more overhead resistance than usual (Open, vwap, and that big selling momentum bar).  But it was a 3d setup and had a reverse divergence going for it.  Target was simply the point of price failure, which happened to coincide with the area where price broke down the day before ($54.80 area).

GS had a strong open off of a double bottom.  Seeing it wasn't breaking down gave consideration for a gap fill attempt.  There should be a second down arrow on the 5-min chart at around $137.25 as half the position was exited at the 50% retracement measured between Tuesday's close and Wednesday's Open