thurs. 10_11

Gap up to the previous day's high.  Gave a half-hearted attempt at extending higher but not quite to the 25% extension of the overnight range.

Advance/Decline and Up/Down volume were quite bullish today

Should have taken a long around 9:30 and a short around 10:15 but didn't like the feel of it. Blue arrow is an entry, black arrows are exits.  My short entry before 12:30 was earlier than the "signal" (fuschia down arrow).

Fri. 10_05

SPY fades
Once the overnight range midpoint gave up, the selling didn't give up.  TICK divergences can "work" to the extent that one realizes when price is not confirming the divergence.  In other words, you need to be able to read price bars to decipher strength or weakness.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:   

While Advance/Decline trended down for the day, the Up/Down volume tried to get something going, but once giving up the IB_low after noon the Up/Down volume went decisively negative

15min & 5min with 3/10macd.  The pullback of the fast line into the slow line, translating to the bear flag (2d-2c continuation).  Had to try the early morning range breakout, and the 2c-2d long around 11:30.  Also tried scalping long the previous day's high bounce and two lower supports, one of which was $145.70 which I didn't get filled on.

Here is a previously posted chart of the SPY 30-min with support/resistance

Here is an updated chart of the 130-min/30-min showing the 3d setup on the 130min (2c-2d on the daily) which tagged the 100% projection this morning

Here is a 15-minute chart of the SPY with the Advance/Decline on the left and Up/Down Volume on the right.  Worth noting how the up volume was well into the upward move yesterday, while today showed muted readings, hinting at distribution.

The weekly and daily charts;   I THINK the daily is a bullish thrusting pattern, but confirmation is always warranted.  But I'm not particularly crazy about the weekly fast line crossing the slow line.

Fri. 9_21

Down-Sideways-Down, is what we ended up with on this OpEx Friday.
Below, SPY with NYSE TICK and volume.  Notice the sell-off into the close occurred on a TICK divergence.  Just because there is a divergence isn't reason to take (or hold a trade).

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link: 

Advancing/Declining issues trended down all day, as did Up/Down volume.  The A/D line tried to hold zero, but interesting how up/down volume broke zero and was resisted by it on a pullback.

The 15-min & 5min SPY with 3/10macd.   I got chopped around in the mid-afternoon.  "Setups" taken (on the 15-min chart) were a 2d-2c continuation (bear flag) early morning, and a 3d "failure" which rolled over out of another bear flag.   The long entries taken in the mid afternoon were in anticipation of the 3a criteria, but price was very heavy and couldn't recover the IB_low.

repeat

The SPY has been repeating a similar cycle for the past two weeks.
Following a short squeeze type of rally, price has then rolled over in an XYZ corrective wave.
The 3/10macd 3a criteria describes price as testing resistance.  Should resistance break and price goes higher the fast line shows greater momentum and the slow line is often pulled positive.  This behavior can often begin a new trend.  However, rather then a trend developing, what we have seen is price being sold and correcting most/all of the previous gains.
Here are two looks at what I'm talking about, the latter just highlighting the XYZ waves

A broader look in the chart below; we haven't gone very far, but there are clear areas to watch

previous setups

Wanted to just post a couple setup examples that occurred the previous two sessions in the SPY.
From Friday:
  3-pushes to a low.  Multiple positive divergence, the last one being a 3d setup (there's also a 4d-4c continuation flag setup on the 23rd)

The next day (Monday) was followed by a 2c/2d setup (with a very late triggered entry) that failed to break through resistance.  Later in the day there was a short opportunity in the form of a 2d-2c bearish continuation

thurs 1_12

Another good example of the A/D zero-line acting as support today.   First the initial bounce in the first half-hour of trade.  Price support ended up corresponding with a -200 reading (mildly bearish).  A/D line bounced at zero 3 times later in the afternoon as extreme negative TICKs on higher lows indicated a bullish divergence.

Some trades:
BTU - 2c setup.  Later in the day there was the chance of a continued test higher, but ended up scratching at b/e

GS - continued to show strength (or squeeze).

Really disappointed in missing this as I was watching for it yesterday.  A channel/flag break in NFLX

Also disappointed for not taking this short in the SPY this morning (2d-to-4c continuation, or simply, a bear flag).  Notice that the 15-min 3/10macd (top indicator) showed a lower low while price made a higher low/double-bottom, which gives us a buy divergence, while the 5-minute 3/10macd formed an inverse H&S (as did price).

2c

The 2b or 2d-2c criteria are indicative of good topping patterns to look out for.  Just as the 3d will draw my attention to a potential bottom, this criteria hints at an impending top (defining tops/bottoms are dependent upon your time frame).  First thing I would like to see is price closing, or attempting to close under the 20MA on the 15min chart.  Today price rode the 20MA for over two hours before breaking down from its pennant pattern.
Three exits with a final portion (15%) held overnight (stop above $123).

Common setup

Two setups on the SPY today.  First was a long off the IB-low coinciding near the Open price on a reverse divergence.  Since the 'trend' is still up (for my timeframe) buying common support levels (trend line support, IB-low, Open price, previous day's high, 20-period MA were all there) was still a highly probable trade. 
The short entry was based on the 2b criteria setting up on the 15-min 3/10macd and the trigger was the 5-min setting up the 2d-to-2c continuation pattern (a.k.a. Bear flag).  Exit was at the 100% projection.  I took everything off at the one target out of an error in judgment. 

4d

Following the 3/10 macd criteria this setup fits under the 2d-to-2c (or 4d-to-4c) continuation setup.
The slow line is trending down as the fast line is correcting into it (typical of a bear flag price pattern).
Typically I look to enter on the 5-min chart based on the first negative reading (3/10 macd fast line), but in this case that happened on a green hammer bar so I was looking for a pullback higher.  Fib. projections were based on the first seed wave that is highlighted on the 5-min chart.

 

How to...

...completely screw up an easy setup.  Basically through micromanaging the position (a trait I can't seem to shake).
Two very simple things I could have done to prevent this; 1) Keep my stop where it was. 2) Enter on the trigger NOT within the chop.  There were two triggers (down arrows on the 5-min chart which were also my entry and stop out points) where the fast line either turned negative or pulled back.  The concept was very simple; range, break of range, retest, continue.
I must have entered short 5-times within that range in the early afternoon prior to it breaking out. Just taking small losses or scratches, but piling up the commissions.  There was no need to be short when the fast line was green, or until price proved a breakout of the range.  When it started going my way I bumped the stop down to breakeven+commissions and got stopped out.  THEN when it reversed (3-cents beyond my s/o) it ends up doing what I was trading it for; and when it did I didn't want to get in after the long range bar b/c I "didn't want to chase" (notice how much of an adverse move followed that triggered entry wide range bar (7-cents).