this week in SPY

This week's trading in the SPY with pre-market activity.  Vertical blue dash line is the regular trading hour open, fuchsia horizontal lines are the overnight highs/lows.

Monday - Trend day from the beginning.  Notice how the first 5-minute bar cut right through the o/n_lows and didn't look back, making it difficult to enter if looking to short a pullback. 

Tuesday - A false breakdown of the o/n_lows leading to a squeeze in the other direction.  Support at the o/n_highs eventually holding and extending into the 150% projection.

Wednesday - Price holding the o/n_lows, attempting to break the o/n_highs and eventually selling off down to the 50% projection.

Thursday - A narrower o/n range with an early breakout to an eventual tag of the 100% projection.  Late afternoon pullback coming very close to the o/n_high and extending higher on extreme volatility.

Friday - o/n_lows hold and move higher throughout the day.

spy o/n

Meant to post over the weekend the SPY weekly trading ranges; premarket and regular trading hours.  Blue vertical dash line is the market open, fuchsia horizontal line is the overnight high/low.
Monday:

Tuesday:

Wednesday:

Thursday:

Friday:

Wed. 6_6

SPY trend day with the pre-market price action.
Fuchsia horizontal lines are the overnight high & low.  Blue vertical dash line is the RTH Open.  Fib projections based on the o/n range.

overnight range

  If you follow any market with active overnight/pre-market trading this is probably elementary to you, but I thought I would highlight the significance for those that may not be aware.  Knowing where the market traded before Regular Trading Hours (RTH) begin is incredibly useful in framing the context of where price is, or where it may want to go (after all, it is an auction process that tests back and forth to gauge interest in higher/lower prices).
  So, before the market opens at 9:30a.m. EST (8:30 CST my time) I frame the highs and lows of the pre-market in the SPY.  These levels are indicated by purple horizontal lines in the charts that follow (where p/m_H refers to pre-market Highs and p/m_L refers to pre-market Lows).  The vertical blue dash line indicates the open of RTH.  In the chart below we can see how closely this compares with the futures globex market on the right (the E-mini S&P in this example):

Along with the p/m_H & p/m_L I like to extend Fibonacci projections off these levels in 50% increments.  So, starting with trade from Monday May 21 here we have the SPY with pre-market included.
Monday was a trend day up, but notice how price behaved at both the p/m_L & p/m_H before breaking out:

Tuesday May 22nd; a test higher (just beyond a 50% projection of the overnight range) and a test lower (nearly to the penny of a 50% projection) before settling back around the previous day's close

Wednesday May 23rd; A narrower overnight range where on the open the p/_H was rejected and price moved swiftly lower to a 100% projection of the overnight range.  Eventually however, price rallied higher, extending to the 100% projection on the upside (notice how it gets caught up on the p/m_L, needing to pull back before it can take off).

Thursday May 24:  A very wide o/n range and being a range-bound market in this instance, price tests both extremes:

Friday May 25; A quiet pre-holiday environment where price based along the p/m_L for most of the afternoon before breaking lower and reversing on the 50% projection.

Anyway, to get an idea of where you're going it helps to know where you've been.

fri. 2_10

First off, coming into this morning we had some divergences showing up with evidence of buying at the lows in the pre-market.  The selling at the 9:00am hour led to lower lows but also set up the 3d criteria.  Often times I look for an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern with the 3d, but a lower low is just as valid because in that situation you have 3-pushes to a low that results in a short covering move.  Here's a look at the charts which include pre-market data:

The triggers in the above 3d setup (two sets of up-arrows) weren't stellar but strops weren't triggered, best entries were at the 50% retrace.  Also, the 50% projection was achieved but the 100% percent target was capped off by the pre-market supply zone (dash line of the Fib. fan on the 15-min chart).
Here's an updated chart of the one above to include the after hours market, where price finally reached the Fib. fan extension based off of the pre-market

Now some setups.

Two examples of the 2c-2d long setup; One bad, one good, see if you could tell what characteristic exists that makes one a better setup over the other:

 First, BIDU.  I missed the first trigger (first up arrow) but entered at the 50% projection with a target of the 100% projection for a quick 80-cents.  I included the second trigger (second up-arrow) to show the extent which discretion plays in these setups.  Just because it can be perceived as a trigger doesn't mean I'll take it, especially if price is extended, most of the targets were reached, and/or of it's an overall bearish day.

Second, NFLX.  I was quickly stopped out of this trade, however, had I used the correct stop placement I would have remained in the trade (I typically use an ATR on the 5-min chart to give me stop placement, the ATR at the time of entry was 65-cents and I put in a 50-cent stop which was triggered.  Irregardless, I would have likely taken a loss either way).

So, you can probably tell that the main difference between the two 2c-2d setups is the strength (or lack) of trend.  It's always preferable to find setups which have a prevailing trend.

Here was another 2c-2d setup in V.  Using a 30-minute chart.  I missed the first triggered entry but took the second.  Also left a decent amount on the table by taking profits at the 50% & 100% projections.

Finally, a late afternoon trade in BIDU again.  Exits again at 50% & near the 100% projections.  I was actually holding out for the $137.40 price (dash line of the Fib. Fan) but the high was at 137.37.