The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at toddstrade@gmail.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.


Showing posts with label Slingshot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Slingshot. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Bulls on parade

The weekly reverse divergences are playing out (some in a bigger way than others).  This is exactly why they call it a 'Slingshot' setup.
SPY- potential reverse (sell) divergence with a higher momentum high and lower price highs, but nothing actionable until the hourly sets up a sell signal.

QQQ- came within 3-cents of it's previous all-time highs and took 4-days to erase a 10-day correction.
 DIA - This and the IWM being the "weaker" of the 4 indices.  Nothing bearish until the hourly sets up a negative bias.  A good (bullish) sign that the most recent (hourly) momentum made a higher high on this push.

IWM - one to watch as it's been lagging in performance, it's the only one that hasn't taken out it's previous swing high

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

A trade in GLD today that helped me get flat on the day after a perfectly retarded long trade in CVX
Something to look for with a strong trend in place (as was the case with GLD intraday) is known as a Slingshot setup, basically a reverse divergence (higher low in price with a lower momentum low).

Monday, November 30, 2009

Monday 11_30

As I mentioned over the weekend, POT and RIMM were both on my radar this morning. Due to technical difficulties I missed the ideal opportunity to short RIMM this morning at overhead resistance.
RIMM currently sits under $58, which looks to have turned Support into Resistance (SbR).

POT rallied this morning up to a previous level of resistance. This impulse move registered a higher momentum high compared to a lower high in price (Slingshot setup/Hidden Divergence).Indicated on the chart below is the entry and exits taken on this trade (down arrow with small horizontal lines). The ellipses on the 3/10 oscillator highlight patterns to look for as entry potential. The first ellipse shows how the fast line falls under the slow line and corrects into it at the highs of the day, leading to a correction off of the trendline on a momentum divergence.
Of course by the time the oscillator registers a confirmed correction the move may already be too far gone. So, I looked to put an order in under the pivot which would confirm a bear flag breakdown (after all, these pullbacks in the 3/10 just highlight flag patterns).Also highlighted on this chart is a bullish Wolfe Wave setup that occurred. Unfortunately, when I put my order in to go long price ran away from me. The buy divergence lent confidence to the entry, while vwap gave some confidence for the target line.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Friday 11/13

In the last 8 sessions the SPY has gained 6.98% and in the last 3 sessions it retraced no more than 1.87%. Things can go either way, but mostly feels like it's hanging by a thread as it waits for the next surge of buying.
This morning's test of the previous day's low was met with very strong volume:
The chart below has horizontal lines indicating the previous day's Open/High/Low/Close.
Of particular interest are the day's momentum divergences and First Cross entry signals. Also the fact that price was rejected from the PDO after basing around it for an hour.It's also interesting to observe how much price has moved in these last three days. Key in on the 78.6% retracement zone.On the 15-min chart we closed above our bullishly oriented Moving Averages (though if you use Simple Moving Averages price is wedged between the two MA's, so whatever). Price has retraced over 38% from our lows by today's close. Perhaps Monday we'll see a gap or move up to test the $110 price, being that we spent so much time around it today and Wednesday.
The weekly is interesting; showing those momentum divergences since March. March through July gave two divergent impulse pushes following a small window of downside momentum (which only amounted to a 7% correction). From mid-July to the end of this week, we have had two similar (and smaller still) divergent impulse pushes, and while price closed at it's highest price since October '08 it has barely any momentum left in it. Either we get more impulse up or correct another 7%, but something's got to give.

Friday, August 14, 2009

blah Friday

The dollar saw some buying activity, giving the markets a little sell-off.The morning sell-off put in a higher low, while momentum registered a lower low, so I was looking for a "Slingshot" setup.
The green arrow is where I considered buying (close above the 20-EMA). I didn't buy here because, well I guess I'm a dope. The stop would have been either below the lows of the day, or perhaps a bit higher. Either way, it would have given us a Risk:Reward of 2R.
The green horizontal line is my daily support pivot.

For some longer term perspective; the daily shows a somewhat range-bound market on decreasing volume and momentum. No surprises here.The Weekly is sporting three consecutive NR7 bars with the slightest of bearish momentum divergence.

Friday, August 7, 2009

Fri. 08/07

So, Friday gave us an emotion-charged rally. Momentum still continues to waiver. I mentioned on Thursday how the slow line in the following 60-min chart went negative. Well, it has recovered to go positive but notice how tired that slow line looks.
So, price gaped up to previous highs (corresponding with my resistance pivot and retraced back towards the 20-ema before heading higher on the day. Some things to notice in the following 5-min chart include:
-The gap up sold off into a bear flag pattern that concluded it's measured move in an nr7 hammer candle (purple candlestick).
-Price put in a higher low, while momentum dragged down into a lower low as price ever so slightly tagged the 20-ema continuing higher in a suspected "Slingshot" setup.
- Price shifted from bullish to bearish around the 11 a.m. hour (Pacific Time). The shift is suspect once price closed under the 20-ema and the fast line can't recover the slow line on the 3/10 macd. Notice inside the ellipse on the chart below, how the fast line crosses under the slow line, corrects back into it, but just can't recover above that slow line. Momentum and price then continue lower.The momentum shift I just mentioned using the 3/10 macd could also have been witnessed in the TICK behavior. In the chart below we see how the zero line was acting as support along the highs of the day, but once price closed under it's 20-ema the zero-line was now acting as resistance. Also worth noting during the early hours how steep the pullbacks in TICK were. Typically on solid trend days you'll see TICK pull back to the zer0-line on corrective moves, not all the way down to -600 and a nearly -800 reading.
Well, the sell-off brought price back down to previous "single print" levels.OK, this rally has reached an apex, right?! There's zero upside momentum left on the daily.
So far the weekly 38.2% Fib. retracement level has held as resistance. A gap-fill and 50% retracement would be the ultimate victory in the next few months though.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

seen any bears lately?

Don't hate it, just trade it! That's my motto from now on.
We just keep pushing up on little to no momentum.The 60-min chart looks like it may be setting up for another momentum push higher
We gaped down this morning, but as price was testing the lows TICK wasn't overly bearish. We filled the gap, put in a higher low while the TICK put in a lower low, giving us a bullish divergence. We did chop around the previous day's close before continuing higher. Each TICK back to negative territory was a good opportunity to buy the dips.
We based around the highs before breaking down. Again, price tested the selloff-lows on a higher TICK, taking us higher into the close.
Here's the 5-min chart. First, the Support (green horizontal line) & Resistance (red horizontal line) envelopes. Price touched our Support line, but the following 20-minutes following the opening low couldn't test that level again. We can see also how the ensuing highs through the day were showing a bearish momentum divergence. The correction off of the highs (nervous selling) put in an ever so slightly lower momentum reading, giving us a subtle slingshot setup long. Finally, we can see the bullish momentum divergence on the lows around 3:30 p.m. I'm not sure whether the last 10-minutes was a short-squeeze or aggressive buying.Meanwhile:

FCX based along my support envelope before breaking down to the previous day's gaping candle.Today I owned RIMM. I mentioned yesterday being on the look-out for a long setup above $77. $77 was blown through early and continued on until it flagged at my resistance envelope line. Price ran to an even $80, touching a previous support level on the higher time frame.
The highs were met on a decaying momentum divergence, also a Head & Shoulders setup. The retracement out of the H&S breakdown found support at a 50% Fib. retracement (not shown).

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

testing

We made an attempt at testing previous highs, only to be sold. The good thing is, however, that we're building value at these higher levels, so that we can break out to the upside with conviction/follow-through; when/if this happens is another matter. I can see a test down from here to see if we can put in a higher swing low:This morning's gap-down was quickly bought, and the strategy I mentioned a while back for buying a return to the previous close was in play for a scalp. I've been forgetting to mention this technique, but that's not to say I have scrapped the setup.
These aren't hard and fast rules of course, like waiting for price to get to the exact PDC price. It depends entirely on the way things are moving, if there's a better opportunity to get in while suspecting a play off of this scalping technique than that's what you base your entry on, take this morning for instance; On the 1-min chart the nr7 bar (purple doji) at the end of the tight consolidation flag was a much better risk/reward entry, suspecting a quick move to (and off of) the PDC. As price flagged again at the $95.75 range you can see TICK getting weaker and the lowest close of that range was followed by a sell-off.Something else I wanted to mention was incorporating Buy/Sell Envelopes on some of my charts (select issues I watch with frequency). They're very similar to pivot points, and they're adapted from the Taylor Trading Technique.
This day's Support on the SPY was $94.83; not bad, our LOD was $0.06 higher. Meanwhile, the Resistance for today was $96.13, the exact penny for our HOD. Here's the 5-min SPY, with the Buy & Sell envelope are highlighted in the bright blue horizontal lines (the other three horizontals represent Pivot, R1, & S1).On the chart above, notice the "Slingshot" setup. Price put in a higher low, while the momentum indicator put in a lower low, giving you a buying opportunity that has three criteria; Pivot Support, a Slingshot setup, and a bullish engulfing candle closing right on top of the 20-EMA.

Finally, there was FCX this morning. Price based around the PDC for most of the morning. Towards the break of the base we had 4 narrow range candles, 3 of which were nr7's. I'm keeping a spreadsheet for FCX as well, using this Taylor Trading Technique I mentioned above. The Buy/Sell Envelope for today on FCX are highlighted on the chart below with green and red horizontal lines. Price came withing $0.03 of our resistance level! If there's any desire to know these Buy/Sell Envelope levels, let me know. For now, I'm keeping track of SPY, RIMM, FCX, POT, and XLE.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

corrective wave

An excellent post today over at AfraidtoTrade.com highlighting the Elliott Wave count on the recent move down in the S&P. Even if you're not keen on counting waves and fractals until you go cross-eyed (self-confession here) you can get clued in to the end of an impulse move by looking at a momentum indicator. For as we approach the end of the 5th wave (today's lows) you can start to see momentum dissipate and diverge from price direction.
So, as we started dipping lower this morning you could see momentum lacking the strength to take things too far. Take a look at the 15-min chart with the momentum indicator losing steam (it's even more evident with higher time frames of course, like the 30- & 60-min chart):
As much as I hate to admit it (hate to admit it out of my own inadequacy, not because I think E-W theory is bupkis), keeping track of possible Elliott wave counts can prepare you for a corrective move/wave ahead, and remind you to watch price and momentum for a turn up (in this case in an ABC correction).
A previous post from today included a snapshot of the SPY forming an inverse Head & Shoulders bottom this morning. This reversal was the beginning of our "A"-wave correction and ended around a confluence of our pivot point, 200-MA, AND upper keltner channel. So, not only did we have that confluence of resistance, we also had a "Slingshot" setup taking place on the 30-min chart (can also be seen on the 15-min chart). Notice, momentum registers a higher high while price puts in a lower swing high, leading to a slignshot in price, also giving us the "B" in our ABC corrective wave.Tomorrow should be a telling day in terms of where we go from here and if people start buying this dip, take profits in their positions, or start to short with an eye on 880 in the S&P.

Friday, June 5, 2009

June End of Week 1

The Nasdaq looks itching to fill the gap left from October '08.Nothing too bearish looking in the S&P500 chartDitto for the Dow
And the Russell2000 has been on fire (we are currently in a purely speculative environment after all).
Treasuries fell out of bed this weekGold corrected today, to end the week down, giving the chart some dark-cloud cover
The Dollar rallied these past three days, ending the week green. Perhaps a rally in the cards? There's a confluence of moving averages clustering around each other, while price put in a slightly higher low and momentum put in a lower low, which has good potential for a "Slingshot" setup.Should the Dollar rally from here it could portend a correction in Oil, as it ended it's 3rd consecutive up-week, while printing a spinning top/doji star.

Monday, May 25, 2009

reveal

I posted two charts this weekend without identifying them, and so here's the reveal.
The first is what looks, to me, like an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern in the daily chart of USO.The neckline was broken at the start of May and a measured move could give a price projection in the $44-range (which coincides with the 200-MA area and a resistance level).
The second chart was (as revealed in the comments section) a 60-min chart of SRS, which appears to be giving us a Rounding Bottom pattern.As our beloved rally has relentlessly climbed, SRS seems to have frustrated holders into giving up on catching this falling knife. We can see that price seems to have stabilized after losing over 70% of it's value since March.
It looks like a base has been built and may be breaking out of it's established range.
Looks like a double-bottom recently. While the most recent test of the lows was on lower momentum, leading to a "Slingshot" setup.

Thursday, April 30, 2009

creeping higher

Gap up today on strong TICK and as price crept up TICK declined the whole time. The tipping point came at the $89 mark (on SPY). Notice also the diverging TICK as price was testing the highs.The momentum oscillator gave us a nice entry at the top of this move (red vertical line). I changed my 3/10 macd to color-code the slow-line so that when it is increasing it is colored green and when decreasing it stays magenta (I had it red, but it stands out better this way). This way it's easier for me to trade based on setups previously outlined.
While this downside move bottomed-out we got a bullish momentum divergence, as price put in a lower low, the momentum oscillator gave us a higher low (also coincides on the 5-min chart with NYSE TICK from above with the divergence).
Watching the 15-min chart we had a number of divergences. From the opening move there showed a bearish divergence between today's high momentum reading and yesterday's. We had a "Slingshot" setup; a divergence where price puts in a higher low on a lower low in momentum. The upside play didn't result in that big of a move (about $0.40), but it played out nonetheless. Afterwards, a bullish momentum divergence set up late in the afternoon, giving us a move back up to the 20-EMA. I'm currently debating moving over to a 10-min chart instead of the 15 for my three-screen setup, just not sure yet.The 30-min chart shows an interesting breakdown in momentum starting today. These higher price highs have come about on lower momentum highs. Also, as the momentum lows have been steadily shallower the triangle that this combination has formed (lower highs, higher lows) broke down today. I really am trying to stay impartial and just offer up what I see and any clues that the tape may be offering up.