Fri 06_07

Momentum day, though didn't have the same sort of Advance/Decline internals you typically see on an extreme advancing day.

Higher time frame - bulls need it to push through that $165 - $165.50 area

ES with globex - overnight range midpoint (also 50% retrace of previous day's close to today's Open) held on the opening retrace, Overnight high held as afternoon support.

Another look on multiple time frames

Tue. 05_14

Open Drive opening type (vertical dash lines represent every 5-minute interval)

You have to be ready for it, entry was on the close of the first 5-minute bar.  If wrong where would your stop be?  The low of that first 5-minute bar?  If that's the case your max loss would be approximately 3 E-mini points ($0.30 on the SPY).
 Hindsight - I left a bit on the table, should have waited for the 5-min 3/10macd to take profits.
If you miss the earlier entry on an Opening Drive day oftentimes you can look to buy the first 5-minute Red bar, or a bar confirming that red bar.

Based on the hourly time frame my target was approximately $1.  The trigger set up into the close and there was a decent technical pattern to measure (cup & handle)

Breadth two hours in

Fri. 05_03

First buy based on 50% Fib. retrace (Really should have been in off the open.  Really, really should have been in on the NFP release).  Other trades during the day were smaller scalps.  Second up-arrowdoesn't show exits.

With bullish wind in your sails, it's a little easier to "trust" some typical TICK divergences (highlighted).  Selling (profit-taking) seemed prevalent throughout the day.

I believe LBR refers to the setup below as an "Anti" which shows itself as a small flag.   In toddstrade™ nomenclature I refer to it as 1b-to-1a.  The "trigger" would be the faster time frame fast line going green (in the scenario below the faster time frame was showing 2c-2d criteria so you could drill down further still and look for a 3d criteria on a faster time frame).  The discretionary aspect of this approach arrises in making the decision to either wait until the bar closes or get in as price is breaking out.  

As an aside, a picture perfect "First Cross" setup occurred on 4/23 (indicated with an up-arrow on that date) on this higher time frame ES chart (below, left).  Also 1b-1a criteria except the slow line just came up through the zero-line. 

The day's range with volume profile

Tue. 04_23

Extreme advancing days you really need to be in before the first hour.  The 5min 3/10 macd will be practically useless as well (if you want a good price), so you have to either buy some form of support (vwap, pdh, o/s, etc) and/or go to an even faster time frame for entry cues.
The problem is knowing when you are in an extreme advancing environment before the first hour has traded.
Opening with a 1a criteria (or 4c in the case of an extreme declining day) is my first clue.  The extent of the gap involved (there is most often an impulsive gap) and behavior in premarket.  Finally, some breadth readings to help you feel like the wind is in your sails.
 Breadth started strong (TICK opened +1000)

Opening hour- pullback to the Open and vwap coinciding with the pre-market high $157

Lucky exit before the tweet-crash

Volume profile coming into the day, we settled right back into price familiarity

ES_globex.  Very interesting that the tweet-crash bounced at the overnight range midpoint, on the dot

Tue. 02_19

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Having a hard time holding and adding

Nothing's changed, we move up, we cosolidate, we move up

Fri. 02_08

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

As mentioned yesterday; criteria 1a (like criteria 4c) is more about looking to trade a breakout then it is about looking for a trigger on the 3/10macd.  For this breakout I prefer to look at a faster chart, like this 1min.  Entry was $151.31.  I also want to see a relevant previous resistance area overcome.  In this case we opened right at that resistance area (see the 15-min chart below)

Basically a bunch of scratch trades in the afternoon.  A pretty lame session, volume coming in at the 2nd lowest of the year (very close to being the lowest).  Options expiration next week, perhaps it will bring in some volatility.
With the higher time frame triggering a buy near the close yesterday, there wasn't much to do except trim exposure.  Looking for the 15-min 3/10macd to turn back bullish to position long again.

another extreme advancing day, though not as strong as previous sessions.  Perhaps this latest momentum push isn't being chased like previous ones.

A chart of the weekly with two Fib. projections based off of seed waves.  Currently at a confluence of projections.  Sixth straight week of higher closes, but not really going anywhere:

Tue. 02_05

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Started off the day with a 3d criteria setup.  Middle of the day was a 2c-2d criteria setup, and finished the day with a 2b criteria short setup.  Slightly higher high today, but a double-top until proven otherwise.

It looks as though it's just a matter of gauging the next pullback.  15-min is in 2c-2d criteria so the current pullback should be supported.  It's the pullback higher (the bounce we can expect from today's late day selling) that will be more telling.  So, I'd be looking to short some sort of XYZ corrective wave on the 15-min, otherwise buy in anticipation of the fast line going green again.

With the symmetrical cycle price pattern taking shape, the Daily chart (below, right) looks like it's putting in a 3-push pattern)

Lastly, today saw the highest ADV./DECL. Volume since this year's rally began.  Which happened to follow the largest NEGATIVE ADV/DECL reading since this rally began.  Seems to smell of distribution perhaps.

Fri. 02_01

today's trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

1a criteria on the traded time frame (15-min) you're looking to trade a breakout, so the 3/10macd on the faster time frame can give some late entries.  Today was an extreme advancing day and with that, it's often the 1pm hour (CST) that tends to see a corrective move (testing the interest of buyers) into the 2-2:30pm time frame.

extreme advancing breadth

Higher time frame had a buy signal on the close of the first 15-min bar

Updated weekly chart:

5 straight higher closing weeks (upper tail of those 5-bars being no greater than 18-cents) and this closing week was an nr7 (narrowest close of last 7-bars)

$151.28 resistance on the weekly did a decent job at limiting today's higher prices.  This level capped the first structural lower high back in December of 2007

 as a LOL; I mentioned yesterday Re: the H&S on QQQ "anything over $67.50-$67.75 tomorrow would negate the above thought process."

the QQQ closed at $67.64 with a high of $67.78...should be an interesting in the coming week to see which way this market plays out.

Mon 11_19

Extreme advancing day.  Breadth being extremely bullish.

The 15m & 5m with 3/10macd below.  If you didn't buy the open I prefer to wait until the 3/10macd fast line on the 5-minute crosses (or anticipate a crossing of) the slow line.   First long entry a small loss.  Second long entry, a small gain.  The 3rd up arrow long entry indicates the "trigger" but I actually entered closer to vwap and added to the position at around the last up-arrow.

During these extreme advancing days I find it's often best to look for an entry (or build a position) on new low TICK readings, with the anticipation of closing near the higs of the day.

On the higher time frame:
Price strongly recovered the 200-day Moving average, however it has a downward sloping 20-MA directly overhead and a downward sloping 50-MA.  Corresponding with the 20-day MA is the 38.2% Fib. retrace.  Still very much in a down trend which will start to come under pressure from short sellers once momentum begins to wane.

bull squeeze

The day in the SPY as it unfolded.  The vertical lines correspond to buying points on negative TICK readings once the market began to consolidate, but the payoff wasn't very rewarding throughout the afternoon (scalps for 15-25-cents).
I had a resting bid in at $123.86 (corresponding to the 9:30 breakout point) and sold it at IB high only to buy back higher (around vwap) as the market character began to change (forming that triangular seed wave).  The position was taken off in full acci-fucking-dentally! near the highs of the day on an extreme TICK (meant to only take half).  All-in-all an extremely disappointing performance today on a day that rewarded patience.