The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at toddstrade@gmail.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.


Showing posts with label volume. Show all posts
Showing posts with label volume. Show all posts

Thursday, March 25, 2010

resistance

Overhead on the Q'sLooks like a lot of people were waiting to play off that level

Thursday, January 28, 2010

so much for a bounce

Lower lows, lower close.
The SPY put in another decent volume selling day. In these past two weeks the SPY has had 3-days of 300-million+ volume. Only two other days going back to May of '08 have had volume over this mark.Also, our momentum indicator has gone negative (the slow line, a.k.a. the "Stability of Trend" -line crossing below zero). This has happened on three other occasions since March. When this happens we would look for the fast line to correct back into this slow line, where we would look to enter short once a lower high has been established ("First Cross" sell signal). On the chart below we have only really had one official First Cross sell signal, that one being back in June/July (first ellipse). The second and third time the slow line went negative, price quickly recovered with strong momentum to the upside.
The S&P closed right above support (1084).
Perhaps we'll get a Dow 10k test tomorrow?The Russell2000 could have some support underneath it:The Nasdaq had a bad day today

Friday, November 13, 2009

300m

The bottoming process on the SPY lasted from roughly October '08 to March '09 with enormous volume. As a "bottom" was put in place volume then tapered off until about April of this year. There was a stretch through the summer where the highest volume reading was somewhere over 300-million shares.
So on the chart below I have the most recent 3 sessions indicated where 300-million+ shares were traded. Only 3 days in the last 125 sessions have had such a reading, two of which in the last 42 sessions. Curious that the last two "surges" saw the market turn around the next day. I have another vertical line marked where, recently, volume registered nearly 300-million shares, and again price turned around the next day. These cycles are getting shorter. Is it a sign of the season, or something more curious?

Thursday, September 17, 2009

FCX

I've been keeping pace with FCX for a while and have made two successful short trades in it in these past two days, and here's my case for lower prices from here:
Since highs back in June of '08 FCX lost over 87% until finding support in December and has retraced 50% of that move since then.
Looking closer, recently price narrowed into an ascending wedge. Today price tested $73 throughout the morning and failed.take a peek closer:
Now let's look at the fuel that drives price (volume).And finally add in the 3/10 macd
and last but not least, a 15-min chart, the Red & Green horizontal lines are tomorrow's Resistance & Support pivots.
Further upside needs fuel to carry it there, so if it's going up in the next week look for volume to confirm. Otherwise, this thing may start to fall fast.