weekly EURUSD

Weekly look at the EURUSD

Weekly (left) chart shows a momentum sell divergence, but that's not particularly bearish (until it is) unless we start to see some negative momentum.  Potential is that we broke out of (and so far sustained) the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders.
The daily chart (right) shows decent trend development while we are currently oscillating in the upper half of the most recent bullish momentum (shaded region).
No real clues as to what may come; we either break higher (which could see a strong move) or we break lower (which has a number of support levels to test).

Carrying over the shaded region from the daily chart into a time frame faster gives us a closer understanding of what's occurring.  Oscillation (symmetrical cycles) within a defined range.  Below 1.325 might see panic selling (but has support into the 1.31's) while over 1.34 is breakout territory (which could see chasing/and/or short covering squeeze).  3/10macd showing 3d (on 240m chart) which could lead to a bullish move.  But the oscillation range has to play itself out.

Adding a time frame faster in the charts below;
   Price is within the 240m moving average window and we wouldn't want to see it trade at these levels for much long and remain bullish.  The faster-still time frame on the right shows price under it's two moving averages with a 3/10macd showing bearishness (4c-4d).  It's on this time frame that we would like to see the 3/10macd have the fast line show an ABC wave (turn positive, pullback, then tick back up positive) before doing anything bullish.

basically....needs moar data

Mon. 01_07

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

First trade basically a scratch. Second trade (short) I took some off but then added back (two down arrows). The up-arrow with an "x" under it reflects a long entry that I considered, but didn't take. Final trade (long) was scaled out of in 4 parts, the final exit was based on the overnight highs at $146.04.

The higher time frame you can perhaps argue the presence of a head & shoulders pattern (65min chart).  I'll be watching the 3/10macd on that time frame to see if it goes green (and has a fast line/slow line cross) or if it ticks back down.  Essentially under $145.50's bearish and over $146.25s bullish.

Interesting to note the severe lack of negative TICK readings so far this year (the sub-graph in the chart below is a smoothed version of the TICK)

week ending 12_14

QQQ weekly look
 
The weekly QQQ 3/10macd is showing the potential for a 4c-4d criteria setup (essentially a bear flag).  Worth noting that the slow line is now negative (which often precedes a 20- & 50-MA crossover) and price is now under the 50-period moving average (which makes a stronger case for the 20- & 50-MA crossing).  This year we've seen two very symmetrical cycles of around 24-weeks, and as it stands we're in week 12 (mid-way) of what could be a symmetrical corrective wave.

We can compare the above 3/10 macd criteria to that of July where we saw the slow line go negative.  The glaring differences being the following;
 - Though price was working within the 20- & 50-MA window we saw green candles and price closing near the upper range of that 20/50-MA window.
 - When looking at the potential 4c-4d continuation criteria we're looking for a bear flag pattern, that's not what we saw in July.
 - The Daily chart showed a channel (symmetrical cycles), compared to the current daily chart where we see a prior double top and price at the bottom of it's "M"-pattern.

XLF has shown "strength", but the weekly momentum hasn't really reflected it, instead showing the 2b criteria which often highlights a 3-pushes to a high pattern

I would post more charts, but they're really showing about the same thing as the two above.  Sector-ETF's, index ETF's all showing weekly weakness.