12/6

Inside day.
A number of fake moves for most of the day.  The Opening price acted as main pivot.
White lines are S/R from previous day/s.  Purple line is intraday S/R.
A/D-line popped strong above the zero-line on the day's breakout (confirming).  I was short just above $127 but really didn't capture the move down because of poor exits above 126.6.

3d setup played out (inverse Head & Shoulders) vertical lines being potential entries.  I was long around the midpoint ($126.06) but....

 ... again didn't capture the strength of the move due to poor execution.  Definitely need to work on this issue, all b/c I'm too over-focused on the fast time frame and not seeing the forest for the trees.

Here's another look at S/R points today, again, white lines from previous days. purple lines from the current day, yellow dash line was over-night high:

12/5

Previous levels which came into play today:

The white lines indicate levels of interest (Support/Resistance).  The purple lines where intraday points.

S/R

SPY traded price ranges from 11/15, 11/16, and 12/1

S/R levels from 11/15-16

Adding S/R levels from previous two days we have this (green horizontal lines)

Put them together for today, you have this:

So, if price has been tested I can terminate the previous price level and add new ones in as they become significant (white lines).  Not perfect, but what is?  The results are helpful though and at time uncanny.

Posted this chart a few times last week as it updated.  We broke down from our up-trend line and are in a throw-back process that coincides with a down trend line.  TICK is diverging positively so far.

Price has reached the measured move from the H & S pattern mentioned last week and filled the gap left from 6/28 coinciding with a 61.8% retracement

Had a bunch of support levels close together at these 1290 levels on the ES, corresponding to the 61.8% Fib. retrace

The ES came just shy of a 150% projection off of its seed wave setup and continues to test lower

off

Off to Seattle until Sunday (any recommendations are appreciated :)

Updated results:

 Here are a few charts with S/R I have for the week ahead.
IWM

updated:

POT

updated:

AMZN

updated:  a bit too many resistance levels

FCX

 updated:

SPY

 

 updated:

keep the ball rolling

I'm going to keep the ball rolling with RIMM and the 2xbar concept, especially since it had quite a big day today.
This will actually be a good lead-in to watching momentum bar midpoints intraday.
Straight out of the open RIMM displayed strong momentum, whether it was short covering, long entries, a combination of  both, who cares.
With a show of momentum you can figure that people are looking to buy a dip of some sort (but the smart ones will only pay wholesale for it).  Looking at the first 15-minute and 30-minute bar of the day, the midpoints of these two bars was right around $56.
Price retraced after the initial impulse to $56.13 before turning higher.  So, what was $56.13? 

An important note here:  If I'm looking for a pullback to $56 and price doesn't make it that far, then I should be looking for clues of a potential turn-around, such as we saw once price bounced at $56.13, retraced, formed a higher low, moved higher and then broke out.  Oftentimes it looks like this:

Here are the 5- and 15-min charts:

Referring to the above charts, the $56.13 area was a "confluence" of things:
- It was Resistance for the previous day, as shown on the 5-min chart.
- It was also the midpoint of the second 5-min bar of the day (to the penny! which kinda blows my mind), not shown but easily visualized.
- It was the High-Low Fib. retracement from 11/4 to 11/9, shown on the 15-min chart.
- It happened to coincide with a 38.2% retracement as measured off of the PDC and the opening swing high (not shown).
  The point being, it was a "dip" perceived as being fair value at that time.  But I think the most important point is to be aware of potential support and look for a pattern that supports your premise, similar to the one illustrated above.

Keeping it Simple

I've been spending a lot of time just trying to watch Support & Resistance levels and make trades based on price alone, no indicators at all (though the following chart does have vwap (for potential pullback Support/Resistance) and volume on it (for profit taking cues).
This is what I had for AGU going into today:
Price is at the top of a range following a long run-up.  So, price will either break out to the upside (squeezing shorts) or, start to see profit-taking and/or short selling.  If it's not breaking out, then it is bouncing between Support & Resistance.
Because the first 15-min bar was so large (and it was rejected at my upper Support level) I was looking for a short trade, particularly because of the rejection wicks following the Opening bar.

Ideally the short entry would have been within the wick of the 3rd bar, as a result the position did sit through some heat.
I was having problems with my order entry matrix while in the trade, so I took half the position off prematurely, but considering price was at the Low of the day it was a reasonable spot to lighten up.  All-in-all I think I got lucky on my target price and final exit :/

breakout S/R

Watch breakouts in price for future Support/Resistance....it happens everyday in every market

question...

...did the Lehman Gap put a tear into the financial market's quantum space/time fabric?
I mean, just look at this price behavior every time we go into this zone:
September '09 - March '10

Answer:
NO! Price has always acted crazy while in this zone. The vortex was opened up long ago.

Maybe it happened somewhere around 1998:Sept. '01 - June '02Dec. '03 - October '04

I'm not buying it, you buy it...

Following POT earnings we saw a price liftoff on strong volume, only to see the move faded once hitting that overhead supply range ($100-$101). Have we noticed a theme yet of beat earnings moves being faded??
At any rate, here's the overhead supply zone as posted last night:Following a failure test of the highs, price formed a seed wave, giving 2 primary targets. I'll post an end of day update on this chartIt's a funny thing to see strong buying (as evidenced by the green volume bars) into a move, but the overhead supply concept will win out every time (initially anyway, this could be a mechanism to flush out "weak" hands and we could base and consolidate between this $97-$100 range for a while longer, it just depends on how much demand there is).
...should have bought it...what a move!

POT pre-earnings

The daily shows:
- Price above the 20- & 50-SMA, but below a slightly up-ticking 200-SMA
- Price within a $8-$10 range for the better part of 2.5 months now
- First trend-line break (from a strong selling phase) broke out and retraced all the way back to its trend-line.- Second trend-line break is in progress
- Highest volume day for the past 8-sessions ended selling off from it's highs, but still closed above the open.
- A strong gap up could meet with resistance at the overhead 200-SMA
- A downside gap could have support at the 20-SMA area, $93-$94
While intra-day:
- Approaching earnings, price has been bought up into an accepted range, between $95-$99.
- This past week has seen a number of sell-offs (probably a sign of covering positions before earnings?) that quickly recovered, while putting in 3-successive higher lows.
- Bulls and Bears are positioned. They met in an accepted range, and the winners/losers will be told through the tape in the morning.
Minor S/R levels include:

failed short

Shorted JOYG and got stopped out, but I still love this pattern where you can just see buying interest just die.
The Support-turned-Resistance zone was working early in the day, but the more it comes back to test it and the more the buying interest wanes, the higher probability it will break down from support.I entered on a little bear flag setup and got whipped out (stop too tight), had I stuck with it I can see the potential of where I would have gotten back in with much cleaner price behavior within the later bear flags at support

FCX cont.

Recent updated chart. Worked nicely. Looks to me like a correction of some sort could be expected for the early part of this coming week.

updated from here
FCX reports tomorrow morning at the open.
So far, it has had this nice channel setup, where the breakout cycle is similar to a shoulder (61.8% retracement of the previous cycle):The larger picture is still down for now
Price is currently right up against the 50-MA with the 20-MA just below
intra-day S/R: