What if Gold has NOT topped out, but is merely in a corrective phase? As the sayings go; a trend is more likely to continue than reverse, and, trend's end in a climax. I would posit that we have seen trends end in a climax before (Crude Oil in the latter half of '08 for example) where the selling is relentless and unforgiving, and yet, Gold has been within a range for close to a year now, not very climactic if you ask me.
With an issue that has such a mature trend it makes sense to analyze it on a big picture time frame. So, here we have a monthly chart of the Gold market:
The large corrective cycles in 2 previous periods has averaged 18-months. So far we are in our 9th month since seeing the highs sold in September of 2011. If this were the half-way point in a corrective cycle it would match perfectly with out average 18-month corrective cycle.
On a smaller time frame we can see how each of these corrective phases trace out a distinct pattern:
Looking a little closer at this year's price discovery we can see three instances (the most recent of which has been this past week) of buying tails at support, also known as three pushes to a low?
Basically what I'm trying to say is that the decade-long Gold trend, in my opinion, has not yet "ended in a climax. Rather, it appears to be in yet another corrective phase. My premise would be proven wrong with bearish momentum that slices through various layers of support in the coming months. If correct, that would mean we're roughly half way through a corrective phase that could lead price to a retest of previous highs. For now; It ain't over 'til it's over.
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