perspective

Just putting up some charts of where we stand on the longer term horizon. The Russell2000, the Nasdaq Composite Index, the S&P500, and the Dow Jones Industrial. First the monthly, followed by the weekly time frames. The monthly charts include trendlines &/or "value" levels, while the weekly charts include; Fibonacci retracement lines (snapped from '07 highs to '09 lows), a 50- & 200-period Moving Average, and a line marking the "Lehman Gap" and/or overhead resistance.
R2k
NSDQ
S&P
DJIA

this fractal market

Started off with an expected range day and ended up breaking out of, and closing on, the highs of the day. The 30-min chart has me excited to see what's on the horizon. Notice the momentum indicator; it had 3 pushes up (sure, it diverges after the first push, but that downward trajectory has been broken (kinda like a trend-line break), but now looks to be building steam for more positive momentum, this thing could blow! Provided it doesn't fizzle and poop.Here's a look at the 1-min with TICK. You could build some promising scalp strategies using this thing!
Zoom in and break-down today's activity as simplified as you can get:

This relentless push up that we've been experiencing since March reminded me of something. A few weeks ago we opened the morning with a vicious sell-off. We began to recover slightly (looking very much like a short-covering wave) and "logic" would have you believe that we would continue lower. What eventually happened, however, was a retracement of the entire sell-off. It looked like this:
It was this sort of behavior in the market that leads me to think; what if?! What if we end up retracing the entire sell-off going back to August '08?! OK, so going back from August '08 wouldn't be a retracement of the ENTIRE sell-off, but you catch my drift. Now look at the weekly: What IF!
So, to say "it can't happen" would be absurd, as this market is entirely fueled off of fear and greed!. Fear that you're going to miss it, and Greed...well, that you're going to miss it!! It doesn't matter what time frame you are on, weekly or 1-minute, the behavior IS possible!
It's even more interesting to look at what happened AFTER the market retraced all of the initial sell-off.Ay Carumba!! That's one crazy move!
It doesn't matter the time frame, the market doesn't like "open space." It needs to test area's that were sliced through in panicked moments. Whether it does it quickly or eventually may determine the volatility AFTER it retraces/digests the move.
After all of that, look even further at what happened (and where we stand currently):

XLE

The Energy sector (XLE) is on fire lately, gaining 10% in the past 8 sessions. Long-term overhead resistance at $58. Watch for signs of exhaustion.
The daily chart formed an nr-7 hanging man, with an exhaustion-type gap.Added overhead resistance in the form of an upper keltner channel and momentum topping out.Top holdings in XLE that particularly look weak include; DVN, APA, XTO. These three issues sold off of their highs today and were never able to challenge those highs for the rest of the afternoon.

wrap-up

Most issues that I regularly follow made their lows first before being bid up higher, with the exception of AAPL, TLT, and OIH. Also, FCX appears weak.

higher highs

We continue our trajectory up, thanks to these upward gaps that see absolutely zero selling pressure. My data is acting screwy at the moment (currently showing me a hanging man candle on the SPY daily!?).
A trend day could have been suspect given all the news related...blah blah blah.
Perfect low-risk entry on the SPY today was at the 20-EMA on the 5-min chart.Zoom into the 15-min chart and what do you see?Here's the 1-min with TICK.Well they got their close above Dow 10k....watch for follow-through tomorrow. Why the heck does my daily show such a long tail on the day's candle??

also

I forgot to mention in my previous post that with the stocks I follow I also keep track of whether the Lows or Highs were made first in the most recent session. So, for instance, today on the SPY price gaped down, sold off, made lows for the day, "rallied" and took out the day's highs. That combination would have me denote SPY after the close as L1 (or, Lows made first). Meanwhile, XLF made it's highs for the day and sold off, never to challenge the highs for the rest of the day, so I would mark it H1. The idea behind it is that price under selling pressure would work from Highs to Lows, while price being bought might work from Lows to Highs. It's a very short term perspective, after all it is Day trading ;)
So, after the close today;
XLF H1
SPY L1
XLE H1
AAPL H1
FCX L1
GS L1
OIH L1
POT H1
TLT L1
RIMM L1

what i watch

These next 3 snapshots (Daily time frame) include stocks which I keep tabs on regularly. They include the 20- & 50 EMA's, and a 2-period Rate of Change. I like to zoom in and look at where price is within the most recent 10-15 day range and see if there are any candlestick patterns that jump out at me (like the dragonfly doji on XLE). The rate of change can hint at whether price/momentum may be waning and can give me an idea of what I might expect going into the next day.

FCX today

Here was my view of FCX today...Looks like it may get a gap up tomorrow.
For those who may not know the abbreviations used on the following chart, here's how it goes;
PDC = Previous Day's Close
PDH = Previous Day's High
PDL = Previous Day's Low
LOD = Low of the current Day
HOD = High of the current Day
SbR = Support becomes Resistance
RbS = Resistance becomes Support
PD S/R = Previous Day's Support and/or Resistance
MM = Measured Move

chop

Another low volume choppy day today.
The SPY continues to hover at the highs (almost looks like a tri-star pattern on the daily). Take note of the 3 most recent momentum pushes up creating a bearish divergence, while the most recent two momentum pushes down gave us a bullish hidden divergence, yada yada yada.
We'll see what we get tomorrow in terms of a momentum push, but right now the 30-min is looking a little like a Head & Shoulders pattern.
And finally today, the 1-min SPY with TICK (molestor). A couple divergences that could have been good for scalps or even intra-day swings. Nice job Richard!

Of course

With all the discussion I've been having lately (with myself; here, here, and here) about WFC you probably figured I was riding it today all the way up it's '09 highs today. Of course I wasn't in WFC long today at all! So lame I am.
Anyway, the volume wasn't too impressive but it broke out of it's base decisively, keep a watch on it.
Instead I spent my day watching POT and FCX. It was a profitable day all around, but not half as profitable as it could have been had I held on to my FCX short AND my POT long (I was actually short POT most of the day until I got long at $89.10 only to be shaken out by a tight stop I had in place. Indeed, I have some work to do.
Here was the initial setup in FCX this morning:and after I had gotten in on that nr7 bar:
Here's how the entire day unfolded. And POT; I shorted on a break of $90 (around the 10:30 hour) and got out at $89.50. I shorted 2 other times as well; again at $90 and another entry at $89.50. I probably should have just sold half the first time and added shorts at $90 on the two returns and held until I saw the ton of volume come in at the 2:00 hour. Live and learn.

silly

All you can say about this market is that it's just plain silly. Are we seriously just going to gap our way back up to '07 levels and beyond? They could have at least gaped it beyond the '09 highs!
At any rate, we're basing around our highs, and the SPY this morning put in a slight bearish momentum divergence, which told me to remain bearish-leaning until proven wrong.The sell-off just barely filled the gap before turning around to close nearly at the open.
Here's the 1-min with TICK (molestor). Some hidden divergence, some bearish divergence, some bullish divergence, gotta love it!

to watch this week

What I'll be looking for this coming OPEX week.
FCX has been having a strong go at it, but there's some overhead resistance looming at the $77-$80 level, not to mention the gap just below $90.So, things look a bit extended at this point (but what doesn't anymore?). The upper keltner channel lines up with the even $77 level, so watch for selling if price makes it up to that area this week. However, the first hurdle FCX has to overcome is the $75 level. So, we may get some selling on Monday at this level, provided it doesn't just drop from where it is now. I would be looking for a downside move back to at least the 50-EMA (on the 30-min chart) which would coincide with the most recent gap ($73).
POT has been floundering of late. Just look at the weekly:But what you may not be able to pick out on the weekly can be better viewed on the daily:I'm looking to sell any pullbacks in POT.
USO, just look at the weekly and daily:
I'm thinking the bottom line here is, buy the dips!
Also, keep an eye on the Transportation sector, as they seem to be leading market behavior, watch for a lower high.And finally, pay attention to the financial sector if it begins to approach the $15.50 mark.

the financial's cup

Half empty, or half full?
The end of this week saw WFC at it's highest (on a closing basis) since January of this year. XLF, the highest closing basis since November of last year, and GS the highest close since May of '08.
Is that a big cup & handle pattern on the WFC weekly chart!?! A measured move out of this thing would be ridiculous!GS weekly put in a similar Cup & handle pattern, and is still chugging along. A measured move for GS puts it back at previous '07 highs!Of course measured moves don't always pan out and there are "bumps" and fake-outs, but you have to at least consider....on second thought, I don't want to consider WFC or GS back at all time highs, that would be ridiculous, right!?
Although, GS and WFC weekly charts DID succeed in achieving their measured moves out of this year's inverse Head & Shoulders pattern...hmmm.
Meanwhile, the financial sector as a whole (using XLF as a proxy) looks more like a big bear flag.Or does it? Give this enough time, and what might it look like? Yup! a big fat Cup & Handle!
Intriguing!