SPY 9_24

SPY with TICK below..
Area of interest not highlighted includes around the 9:20am point, strong volume on a re-test of the o/s_high.
Worth noting;
 High TICK of the day at the o/n_high, followed by a negative TICK divergence.
 The midpoint acted as support with a second test showing a low TICK of the day on a higher low in price, followed by a lower low in price and higher low in TICK.
 Price tagged a 50% extension of the overnight range which coincided with a gap fill.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Advancing/Declining issues trended up all day after starting off strongly bearish.  Worth noting how the gap fill corresponded with a touch of the zero line on the A/D.
Up/Down volume trended down most of the day with the exception of the mild squeeze mid-afternoon.

SPY 15-min & 5min with 3/10macd.  Drawn on the 15-min are two Fib projections; one based on the momentum gap down and pullback, which could have been considered a bear flag, however the selling was capped at the 50% projection.  The next projected from the low of the day to the initial swing high and down to the midpoint.  Price achieved the 100% projection which corresponded with the 50SMA, a gap fill, and the 50% projection of the o/n_range (as shown in the chart above).
The highlighted region on the 15min indicates the 3d criteria.  I took two entries in anticipation of this setup, one around noon and the other about an hour later.  The noon long entry I exited with a small loss.  

LNKD 2c-2d

2c-2d criteria in LNKD today.  Should have taken the short entry for the 2b criteria, but, oh well.

GLD update

GLD is now at the $172 resistance area as  mentioned in a previous post HERE.
It would makes sense to see a pullback (though the weekly hasn't printed a necessarily bearish candle yet), and it's in gauging this pullback that will be a clue to a continuation of prior bullish momentum.

 

no trigger

I've been posting this potential long setup in the SPY higher time frame over the past few days. Here & Here.
We never did get a trigger entry on the 130min chart, instead price rolled over.  Still potential for a 3rd push buying opportunity, which would need to show strong momentum.

Here's how it looked on a slightly faster time frame.  Notice how the fast line rolled over on the 30-min chart after giving up $146.

Fri. 9_21

Down-Sideways-Down, is what we ended up with on this OpEx Friday.
Below, SPY with NYSE TICK and volume.  Notice the sell-off into the close occurred on a TICK divergence.  Just because there is a divergence isn't reason to take (or hold a trade).

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link: 

Advancing/Declining issues trended down all day, as did Up/Down volume.  The A/D line tried to hold zero, but interesting how up/down volume broke zero and was resisted by it on a pullback.

The 15-min & 5min SPY with 3/10macd.   I got chopped around in the mid-afternoon.  "Setups" taken (on the 15-min chart) were a 2d-2c continuation (bear flag) early morning, and a 3d "failure" which rolled over out of another bear flag.   The long entries taken in the mid afternoon were in anticipation of the 3a criteria, but price was very heavy and couldn't recover the IB_low.

thurs. 9_20

SPY with TICK & volume.  Significant volume at the lows of the morning (on a + TICK div) as well as on the low TICK of the day at the IB_high.  Notice the 1:30-2:30 negative TICK div (perhaps a sign of a small squeeze, forcing shorts to cover)

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:

Advance/Decline issues trended up all day with price while the Up/Down_volume trended down, but rounded and turned after 1:00pm. 

SPY 15m & 5min with 3/10macd below.  First up arrow long entry was taken at the prior bar because of the inherent strength.  Blue arrows are entries, black arrows are exits.

updated higher t/f

The SPY put in a second push lower today.  It's looking like $147.10-147-20 as resistance above and $145.75-146 support below.  A move lower (whether a fresh or higher low) could give a decent 3-push setup.  Price is still just consolidating after two large momentum moves higher.

While on the daily chart below, we have the 3/10macd fast line pulling into the slow line for the past 3 days.  The 130min chart shows the 3/10macd being close to both the fast line and slow line crossing and the fast line about to turn green, which would hint at the higher time frame's (daily chart) fast line turning up.
What is taking place currently on the 130min chart is very similar to what took place on the daily chart back in august.  The only difference being here we have a buy divergence on the 130min, while on the daily back in August we had a reverse divergence.  However both were/are consolidation phases were price pulled back to a mean before continuing higher.

higher t_f

SPY higher time frame has some roll-over potential here after failing to generate momentum today in the 2c-2d criteria.  Often these failures will see price return back to the down trend line on the faster time frame (drawn in fuchsia).  There is still the opportunity for a gap up tomorrow, which could generate some momentum to get over $147.20's.  Howe

AAPL 2c-2d

Another 2c-2d criteria in AAPL today.
The first long trade wasn't much of a performer, however the resulting pullback formed a nice flag that had a decent measured move.

Wed. 9_19

The SPY with NYSE TICK.  Divergences (or reverse div.'s) corresponding with areas of interest (o/n_high, o/s_low, etc.).

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:

Advance/Decline and Up/Down_volume, mostly bullish today.  Worth noting how breadth retained the zero-line while price on the SPY retained the o/s_low

The 15min with 5-min showing a 1b-1a bullish continuation criteria and a 2b short setup into the close.

SPY 2c-2d

SPY higher time frame looks to be setting up the 2c-2d criteria.  The first hurdle to overcome being the $146.73

re-do

I seemed to have missed a potential resistance point on the following SPY weekly chart, so I'm adding in the $148.73 level.

Tues. 9_18

The SPY with NYSE TICK
Not an easy day for anything but scalping 1-point moves.  The fuchsia lines are an attempt to keep up with price vs. TICK divergences or reverse divergences.  Worth noting how TICK remains within the +/- 500 range for most of the day.

Here is a key to the above chart where you can find explanations to the key in this link.

and here is the Advance/Decline and Up/Down volume for the S&P, stayed negative all day long, though the Adv/Decl had a slight upward bias to it.

AAPL 2c-2d

2c-2d setup in AAPL
Higher time frame:
  - Bullish trend
  - 3/10macd criteria 2c in anticipation of 2d

Faster time frame looking for:
  - 3-pushes to a low
  - higher low seed wave
OR
  - inverse head and shoulders

There was a potential entry at 12:15 CST, however I like this setup to correspond with an overhead trend line break.  The second up-arrow, reflecting a secondary entry, had a MAE of 72-cents.

Update

I'm leaving for Houston this evening, so I won't have any posts up until next week.  But I'll leave this update weekly SPY chart up.  If you have any recommendations for things to do, see, eat in Houston do let me know!

Wed. 9_12

Today's SPY with TICK.

Indications given to TICK divergences at meaningful price levels:
First Up arrow - higher TICK low on lower low in price just above overnight low.
First down arrow - High TICK of the day on a lower price high at the Opening price
Second down arrow - Higher high in price lower high in TICK at the opening swing high and just shy of IB_high.
Second up arrow - Lower low in price higher low in TICK (both sequentially and for the day), hammer candle at overnight low again and near gap fill.

A good example of the A/D-line bouncing at zero

Here's a messy one - this chart is to highlight the 3/10macd and looking to trade a continuation move, which is reflected in the fast line correcting off of the slow line.  A bullish continuation move is labeled A-B-C
while a bearish wave is labeled X-Y-Z.  Essentially, I'm looking to position myself after the "B" point (bullish) in anticipation of at least the C point (re-test), but hopefully more (the continuation).  Likewise, if bearish, I'm looking to position myself around or after the "Y" point, in order to anticipate a re-test of support or continuation beyond.

So, going into this morning we had a gap up (bullish momentum) giving us our "A" point.  We then corrected ("B") then tried to test resistance "C".  The 5-minute chart on the right shows an entry long, which was exited just above vwap after failure of the opening price.
The first down arrow reflects a short entry for anticipation of the "Z"  aspect of an XYZ wave.  More or less a scratch trade.
Second up arrow, a long entry in anticipation of the C1 move resulting from the A1-B1-C1 wave (also inverse H&S (sort of) on 5min).  Not a premium exit, the rejection was pretty quick.
Two down arrows because I scaled back and then went back in between those two bars (amateur).  Fib projection showing price targets.  This short was based on anticipation of the X2-Y2-Z2 wave.

Tues. 9_11

The SPY 5-minute with TICK.  Fib. projections based off of the o/n_high/low.

Here is a guide to what the horizontal lines indicate and if you are confused about the abbreviations see the previous post.

Here is a look at the breadth.  Stayed mostly bullish on the day

Previous Post

It has come to my attention that some people don't like to use the internet for one of it's intended purposes; searching out information.
So, with that in mind, I'll refer you to specific links that explain what the abbreviations mean that I used in yesterday's post.

IB_high/low - IB stands for Initial Balance, read about it here

o/s_high/low - O/S stands for Opening swing.  It's something used on the E-mini, but I find there to be an equivalent in the SPY.  You can read about it here.

o/n_high/low- o/n stands for overnight, can also be referred to as pre-market or Globex session.  I'll let you Google that one on your own :)

Mon. 8_10

Today's SPY:
The upper-most purple horizontal line indicates the overnight highs from Friday, as it was a failure point on Friday as well.

 A key to the chart above as to what the horizontal lines represent.  The Fib. projections are based off of the overnight range high/low:

     Something else I usually have on screen is the Advance/Decline difference for the S&P500 (top chart) and the Up/Down Volume difference (bottom chart) for the S&P500.  What I'm most interested in is the interaction with the zero line (horizontal teal) and how deeply positive or negative the index is for the day.  Volume started negative and trended that way all day.  While with the Advance/Decline, the zero-line highlighted a good support-turned-Resistance pivot:

Strong week

An update of the SPY peeking over the May 2008 supply pivot.  Looking like clear air up to the $147 area.