TLT projection

The TLT finally reached its 100% Fib. projection today off of the impulse seed wave formed back in April.

corrective cycle

While the Stevenson PTT concept is a bit difficult to read in trending markets it does tend to be clearer in range-bound or corrective markets.  Take the SPY for instance;  going back over the past month price has adhered to roughly a 10-day cycle while it tries to determine a direction for a more sustained move.

I have never really been satisfied with the reliability of the Stevenson target projections (red line), but the CTL (purple line) usually holds true to definition (CTL = Cyclic Trend Line, where a close outside this line indicates the beginning of your next cycle phase).

Here was another classic corrective cycle last summer with very symmetrical cycle lengths

Wed. 5_2

The SPY is still hanging in there around the apex of the "W" pattern.  A neutral but bullish leaning bias with price between the $139.5-$141 level.  Above $141 may bring fresh highs, but under $139 could lead to a gap fill  from the 25th.

there remains the potential for this Head & Shoulders to play out

tues 5_1

An example of the 2d setup that ends up reversing rather than continuing the trend direction.
The 2b setup often shows itself as an inverse H&S on the faster time frame and simply highlights a higher low in the pullback of a trend.  However, if price fails to push through resistance there is the potential for a 2b short setup, which is what we saw here today.  The long was scratched for a little more than b/e.

Red Flag

The IWM gave up all of its gains today with a potential Head & Shoulders pattern forming (also worth noting the 20- & 50-MA crossover

in a range that has marked tops before

update

As I've been away for a few days and not able to post, here is a quick update of recent price action in some of the core components I watch:
As mentioned in a previous post, Copper is playing out as expected:

The Crude Oil inverse Head & Shoulders and channel break is playing out as well (refer to link to previous post above)

Gold is really having a tough time of it at this area

The "W" pattern in the SPY is playing out (DIA made new 52-week highs today)

A reasonably strong sell-off in the EURUSD pair today, watching to see if this U.S.Dollar Index move is just a throwback to be shorted or a bear trap after breaking down from this wedge

QQQ reversal

QQQ island reversal looks like it is playing out well

Worth noting the 3d setup going into the close on Tuesday

gold

Chart worth watching for a breakout of the overhead trend line, which seems to have turned into the neckline of an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern

range

This range of ours in the ES

Similarities, then and now

I have posted before the similarities that exist in the current market environment with those going back to late 2010 - early 2011.
Here is the SPY going back to 2010 where we had a narrow channel, leading to a "W" pattern correction, resulting in measured move and nearly identical narrow price channel.

Here is the current environment where we have seen the similar narrow price channel which we have recently corrected out of and what looks like a "W" corrective pattern

week ending 4_20

The three most interesting charts to me coming into the last two weeks of April are Gold, Treasuries & the U.S. Dollar Index.
Treasuries (in this case the TLT) have yet to sell off below the $100 mark despite the vapor rise in equities this year.  This weekly chart (left) simply looks like a pullback in a bullish trend:

Gold - The weekly is testing this long-standing trend line and a breakdown (under, say, $1620) could force a much larger correction.

The Inverse Head & Shoulders on the daily (below, right) is still valid, but further downside will begin to erode that premise.

The U.S. Dollar Index had a week of mostly selling (equities & dollar selling this week?) but the weekly trend line is still intact (though there is a 2b short setup on the 3/10macd).  If price breaks down there is a chance this weekly chart (below, left) forms an inverse Head & Shoulders (indicated by the empty ellipse)

What looked like a Head & Shoulders pattern on the EURUSD daily ended up holding the neckline this week and squeeze higher.  There is a potential 3d setup on the weekly (below, left) with a seed wave that has held the 50% retracement on multiple tests, so watch for a breakout of the wedge that has formed on the Daily:

Crude Oil may have formed an inverse Head & Shoulders on the Daily (below, right) and is possibly setting up the 3d setup (which you will see when the higher time frame is setting up the 2d criteria), definitely watch for a break out from the daily channel

Copper - had a strong day on Friday as it held this confluence of Fib. retracement at support, a retest of the previous breakdown point looks in order.

Thurs. 4_19

Big topping pattern in the make?  Sure looks like it.

Wed 4_18

3d setup in the SPY today

Tues. 4_17

Many issues set up the 3d criteria into the close yesterday and followed through today.
SPY - though this is not the 3d criteria, it is very similar in character (technically a 1d and first cross entry), the best of these 3d setups on the open are those that gap above the previous resistance zone.

While here is one which succeeded in overcoming the first boundary of resistance, but couldn't get past the second level.

AMZN - got stopped out on this one for a loss, though it did what I was anticipating (went higher)

AAPL - was a great example of the 3d, which is the bear trap short squeeze.

Mon. 4_15

Some setups from today.
Midday:
 NSC - Relative strength with a bull flag at previous day's resistance.  I missed the 1st up-arrow entry and entering up against the 50% projection (of the smaller seed wave) and so near the IB-high was a "short leash" trade.

Here is how it looked on a 3-time frame perspective.

NFLX - Seeing 3-pushes to a low on the 15-min and a small double-bottom on the 5-min at the IB-low the entry was long with a target of prior breakdown points that coincided with the 50% & 100% projections.  Got out too soon before price tagged the 100% projection

AMZN - into the close trade which didn't amount to much

I didn't take this SPY trade, but it fits a number of trading rule categories.
On Friday we broke down from a momentum bear flag and continued on that path today.  Price found support at the 50% projection (as well as various other technical price points) of that bear flag on a momentum buy divergence (15-min chart) with 3-pushes to a low (illustrated on the 5-min chart).  The 3-pushes formed an inverse H&S (or seed wave) and achieved the 50% projection, overshooting to tag the morning's breakdown point at $137.68.

week ending 4_13

Starting with the U.S.Dollar which held its weekly trend line while the daily has a rounding bottom/inverse Head & Shoulders look intact.

With the EURUSD weekly trend line holding resistance and the daily H&S closing the week right at its neckline

Copper fell apart this week, failing a number of supports.  Notice how the weekly 50-MA is trending down while the 20-MA is correcting into it....

...this then gives way to this longer-term perspective picture

Gold still fighting with $1680 overhead

The S&P500 weekly chart still has the stench of a trend line throw-back.  Third time's the charm?  Realistically, the COMPX could lose 300-points, the S&P500 could lose 100-points and the Dow could lose 1000-points and all would still be in decent technical shape.

Crude Oil still vacillates within this daily channel.  The weekly has a roll-over look to it.

Curious how beaten-up the energy sector has been.  The weekly showing the three lower highs with the 50-MA turning down and the 20-MA correcting into it, while the daily channel looks like it needs a final flush with such a tight down-sloping channel.

Next week will be interesting.

3d roll-over

A good example of a failed 3d setup, which often-times brings about a trade-able position on the short side.

Fri. 4_13

Two trade setups from yesterday and today.
SPY 3d going into the close Wednesday that followed-through on Thursday morning.

The faster time frame of this pair triggered late (by the time it triggered price was at the 50% projection already), so for a quicker entry you can go to a faster time frame.  In this case, if you were still waiting for a trigger entry, you didn't get it until about $138.02 which was fine, so long as you stick to your target objectives.  In this case the 50% projection target was $138.34, or $0.32 per share for half of the position:

Today in BIDU
2d setup.  Reverse Divergence on the higher time frame, inverse H&S on the faster time frame.  Instead of taking the final half off at the 100% projection I let it interact with the IB-high to see what it would do into the close and let a faster time frame show signs of waning momentum