Some Charts

Copper - A mess.  After the failed breakout from its wedge Copper turned and ended up breaking through its trend line.  Currently sitting at some support but upside will be a battle.

Crude Oil - Has a slight bullish divergence while at the lower end of this channel

TLT - Didn't break down the way most were thinking it would over the past few weeks.  Turns out this weekly chart was just a pullback of the trend while the daily gave a 3d setup.

The U.S. Dollar Index- Held the trend line and has the look of an inverse Head & Shoulders

GLD - another inverse Head & Shoulder potential, though it has a long way to go until it tests the neckline

Tues 4_10

Finally, some selling to relieve some of the overbought conditions.
The SPY is registering strong downside momentum while price is still above the previous swing low pivot, but we can't say for sure it is a reverse divergence until price proves to hold above the $134.60 range.

One issue of concern would be the proximity of the slow line to zero.  The slow line crossing zero typically precedes a 20- & 50-MA cross, however, these two MA's do have a decent distance between each other.

Back to 2011 we saw these two moving averages trending much like they are now and it took 4 instances of the slow line crossing zero before a steep sell-off occurred.  The first instance was just a pullback of the trend, but the second and third were momentum events that wore down the trend and the fourth instance was the textbook lower high trend change.

To better visualize the the trend change take a look at a chart with just the moving averages and price removed, notice how the 50-MA flattens out then starts moving lower while the 20-MA corrects into the 50-MA forming the lower high (while on the flip side the reverse happened to start our most recent bullish cycle).  So until we see something like this develop I would suggest we're at least months away from a character change if it were to occur.  

 

NFP upset

The ES (here with GLOBEX session) fully broke down from its Head & Shoulders pattern this morning following the NFP report.  This morning's move fulfilled a 50% projection of the previous momentum, while a 100% projection move would roughly coincide with the H&S measured move.

Thurs. 4_5

The SPY ended the week in a position where anything can happen.  We're at the lower end of a channel where we either break down or test higher.

Drilling down further there seems to be potential bullish hope in the form of a 3d setup.  So, come Monday watching for strength through $140.20 for a potential gap fill overhead (gap fill would coincide with 100% projection of current seed wave).

week ending 3_30

After not much change across the board between last week and this week, it looks like a lot of things can go either way; the perfect setting for the start to a new quarter.

Gold - not much change from last week.  Overhead trend line (inverse H&S) above, with a higher low (for now below)

Copper - not much changed in Copper.  Still within a channel on the weekly and a narrowing wedge on the daily.

The U.S. Dollar Index -  Still holding that trend line.  Should the Daily achieve its 100% flag projection under 78 that would give us a broken trend line, and a lower low (we already have the lower high).

The EURUSD pair looks to be trying to break out of that overhead trend line

Crude Oil saw some selling this week.  The daily came into that downward sloping lower channel line while the weekly has an upward sloping channel that it still has room to work in.  If the 2c-2d sets up on the weekly (lower momentum/higher price low) then I'd be looking for a 3d-type setup on the daily to anticipate a move higher (3-pushes to a low, inverse H&S or a bear trap of some kind).

The Russell 2000 -  Resistance still resisting

The Nasdaq Composite printed a long legged doji on the weekly (as did XLY).  How many times have we heard "A pullback would be healthy"?

The Dow Jones Industrial Index has an interesting coiling look to it.  If this is a symmetrical triangle our next pullback would be the 'e' point before a breakout higher.

XLE - the energy sector achieved it's 50% projection off of the previous seed wave (flag breakdown).   As the weekly is showing the 2c criteria the potential for the daily to set up a 3d entry this coming week or next is possible.

XLV - the Healthcare sector is approaching all-time highs, worth keeping a watch as the XLP & XLY are still running after seeing all-time highs to start the year.

XHB - watching how the Home-builders respond to the $22.50 mark if tested

KRE - Also curious to watch how the regional banks respond, if tested, to the overhead resistance

XRT - the retail group printed a bearish weekly candle.  Short list candidates?

XME- could break either way from this weekly wedge.  4 weeks of buying tails under $49, should it break that previous swing low it could see stops taken out.

Fri. 3_30

GOOG had a nice bearish trend day to it on Friday.  Momentum on the open, pullback in the later morning, momentum continuation in the afternoon.

If one were considering the 10am momentum to be a 3d criteria setup (as it was a buy divergence) you could have gotten long (and price did get as much as a 100% projection off of its flag/seed wave).  There were two main things to remember in such a case; 1). With a 3d setup there is always a resistance zone to trade into and/or overcome, 2). You should trade through or above the 20- &/or 50-MA's;  Notice how the 20-period Moving Average contained any further price movement higher, thereby retaining the trend.

On the topic of the 3d setup, GS had what I often consider a 3d, but in criteria-speak is technically a 1d though the result and mentality behind it are the same (3-pushes to a low, inverse H&S, OR bear trap).

Thurs. 3_29

Updated from below:
Well, AMZN failed to breakout from its previous resistance zone from Thursday which would be an important factor in whether to hold a swing position.
As the 2d is an anticipation of trend continuation the previous day's high was essential to overcome.  Rejection of this level was reason to erase a long bias.  As the higher time frame's ascending triangle became more apparent, the faster time frame set up a 2b short criteria as price closed right at the trend line of the wedge.

I have been experimenting with day trading higher time frame setups.  So here was one taken in AMZN today.
The higher time frame setup here being the 2d criteria on the hourly chart (I use the 65 minute).  There were 3 potential entries on the trigger chart (20-min) for a swing trade entry (up arrows on the 20-min chart).

For day trading purposes however I'm looking at a still faster time frame (5-minute in this case, you could even use a 6-min chart to keep the 1:3 setup:trigger ratio since there are 65 6-minute bars in 1 trading day).
I missed the entry on the open which was a strong breakout of the previous day's resistance zone which quickly tagged all of the Fib. projections:

I did trade the late day setup which, again, was a breakout of the overhead resistance zone.  My exits (down arrows) were not based on the Fib. projections this time, but instead based on intra-day resistance/supply levels.   I'll update this chart to see how the swing trade worked out (or didn't work out).

Tues 3_27

I was watching for 2d long entries coming into today (buying pullbacks in bullish momentum).  Some just didn't set up, others failed after setting up.  One thing to be cautious of with the 2d long setup is a 2b short setup which can follow if overhead resistance isn't cleared.
POT - kept selling lower until finally I gave up on it.  The setup worked insofar as you got the breakout of the overhead trend line and the 50% projection target was achieved, but the other half of your trade would have been a scratch.

BIDU- I didn't trade this either.  The best setup entry occurred at the open.  Notice that price failed resistance and rolled over (2b short setup).

The SPY had two instances of this setup.  I tried trading the first entry on this but never got filled.  Again, the 50% projection was achieved but that was all.   Later in the day the 2b short setup triggered.

GOOG - a triangle breakout 2c-2d setup, exits at the 50% & 100% projections.  I took this long trade and shorted small size at the 100% projection level and got lucky, covered at the 50-MA.

GOOG higher t_f

As GOOG consolidated previous momentum it took a while to set this trade up.
Dual time frames; 65-min higher and 20-min faster
2c-2d setup on the 65-min; look for 3d or 1a on the faster time frame (possibly 3a for a riskier entry).

I was asked about this trade and why I didn't take what looked like a setup around the 2pm hour on the 23rd.  Quite frankly the setup wasn't on my radar at that time, so I glossed over it.  When scanning through charts this just didn't jump out at me at the time.  I look through sets of multiple time frames for many different stocks.

week ending March 23

Gold possibly setting up a relief rally should it clear 1667

Copper continues to bounce between 3.72 and 3.93 and is just oscillating within a wedge as it comes into play with the 200-day MA.  The daily formed a harami, but confirmation above is necessary.  A break lower could find support at 3.64

US Dollar index threatening a trend line breakdown.  Daily put in a small bear flag while the weekly showing a 2b short setup

Similarly, the EURUSD pair is not backing away from that overhead trend line.  A break of 1.33 could lead to that 1.345 level

Crude Oil - Continues to flag.  A lot of buying tails above $105 on the most recent weekly candles.  A break below $104 could cause long positions to be covered, while $110 is still a significant resistance mark.

The Russell2000 index is 4.4% from all-time highs.  While we saw a false breakout to start the week price pulled back into its comfort zone under 830, however, it closed the week right back at the weekly open right on the 830 number.  This could be a big tell in the next week or two as to whether it is going to try for an all-time high.

The Transportation index pulled back pretty hard this week, forming a double top.  Watching to see the speed in which it comes back to test the 5300's this week.

XLF formed a long-legged doji on the weekly.  the pullback from momentum has been pretty mild so far.  Still inherent strength

XLE came down into support.  Harami on the daily.  $75 a big number to overcome

GOOG cont.

A continuation off of yesterday's post with a trade in GOOG.
I may have gotten chopped up on an entry prior to the one taken (around 9:30), but I didn't get to it in time.

Later in the afternoon the 2d trade set up, but the entry bar was extended and so close to the first target it didn't seem worth the risk (I wasn't around to take this trade anyhow).

GOOG trades

I never really trade GOOG, but these past two days worked out for some trades.
First of all, Monday was a strong day for GOOG.  Yesterday price gaped down, but held a 50% retracement of the previous day.  For most of the morning price coiled within a narrow range before breaking out to fill the gap.  The original plan was for a trade only to the IB-high, but given the strength of the breakout the Fib. projection targets were in play.  This was close to a 3d long setup while the higher time frame was the 2d setup. (One entry and two exits).

Today, was a bit choppier for me.  There are a number of up/down arrows in the early session showing entries/stop-outs.  The first was a break-even trade, the second a stop-out of 85-cents/share.

Meanwhile, today's move fulfilled a 50% projection of Monday's momentum:

This was actually a great example of a 2d setup occurring on the higher time frame, therefore a swing trade.
Going back to the first week of March the Daily chart set up the 2d criteria while the faster time frame gave an entry around $609.  Today's price action came within $0.63 of hitting the 200% Fib. projection from the initial momentum wave occurring between March 6-12th and filled the gap left from January 9th.