bounce any day now? :)
XLF to watch for a tell
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Wed. 10_10
I think I'm going to switch over to a simple price and volume chart rather than the price with TICK that I have been using. After all, it's not like the TICK is a leading function of price. Now I just need to decide if I should present it as the 5-minute time frame, or faster, like in the chart below.
Today saw a continuation of the previous day's selling after an attempt at testing the overnight highs which coincided closely to the o/s_high and just slightly higher than the Open and previous day's lows.
Advance/Decline and Up/Down volume slighly divergent from yesterday's readings.
15min with 5min and their 3/10macds; another bear flag continuation (4d-4c)
We're coming into a point where "dip-buyers" should become interested; a confluence of the 50-day MA, the lower-middle point of the "M" pattern (what's that called?), and it is also the midpoint of the impulse candle from Sept. 06. Also, there seems to be a buy divergence on the "faster" time frame. Early morning selling tomorrow could present a buy setup (potential on the 15-min (above) for a 3d criteria setup).
Today saw a continuation of the previous day's selling after an attempt at testing the overnight highs which coincided closely to the o/s_high and just slightly higher than the Open and previous day's lows.
Advance/Decline and Up/Down volume slighly divergent from yesterday's readings.
15min with 5min and their 3/10macds; another bear flag continuation (4d-4c)
We're coming into a point where "dip-buyers" should become interested; a confluence of the 50-day MA, the lower-middle point of the "M" pattern (what's that called?), and it is also the midpoint of the impulse candle from Sept. 06. Also, there seems to be a buy divergence on the "faster" time frame. Early morning selling tomorrow could present a buy setup (potential on the 15-min (above) for a 3d criteria setup).
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Dollar index 3d
3d criteria setting up on the U.S.Dollar Index daily chart.
3a which precedes the 3d is the main resistance which price needs to overcome, in this case being around $80.15.
3a which precedes the 3d is the main resistance which price needs to overcome, in this case being around $80.15.
Tue. 10_09
Spent the first 80-90-minutes bouncing between the Open and the overnight lows until selling lower.
Not much to do in between 10:30-2:00
A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:
Advance/Decline tried to recover the zero-line but ultimately failed. Up/Down Volume trended negative right out of the gate.
Two shorts taken (blue arrows).
Daily was very stubborn breaking that trend line around $144.50
The QQQ leading this decline, completely giving up the 50-day MA
Not much to do in between 10:30-2:00
A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:
Advance/Decline tried to recover the zero-line but ultimately failed. Up/Down Volume trended negative right out of the gate.
Two shorts taken (blue arrows).
Daily was very stubborn breaking that trend line around $144.50
The QQQ leading this decline, completely giving up the 50-day MA
Monday, October 8, 2012
Mon. 10_08
Narrow range, sideways day to be expected on a bank holiday with the bond markets closed.
Price extended to a 25% projection outside of the overnight range, but otherwise remained inside that range.
A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:
Advance/Decline and Up/Down volume remained bearish throughout the day
One trade is all I took. Contemplated taking a short (indicated by the red down arrow at around 10:15am). Very lame exit on this long, as my target was $145.80 but I stuck with a Fib. projection exit and gave up on it instead of letting it go into the final hour.
The daily looks fairly weak at this point. Since the new momentum low at the close of September a reaction has been pretty subdeud.
Not to mention what looks like weakness in other markets;
The DIA with an inverted roof pattern. A break to the downside has a measured move of around the 50-day MA (red):
QQQ - Has a bit of Head&Shoulders pattern, currently at the 50-day SMA and neckline support
IWM - continues in a very narrow channel
Price extended to a 25% projection outside of the overnight range, but otherwise remained inside that range.
A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:
Advance/Decline and Up/Down volume remained bearish throughout the day
One trade is all I took. Contemplated taking a short (indicated by the red down arrow at around 10:15am). Very lame exit on this long, as my target was $145.80 but I stuck with a Fib. projection exit and gave up on it instead of letting it go into the final hour.
The daily looks fairly weak at this point. Since the new momentum low at the close of September a reaction has been pretty subdeud.
Not to mention what looks like weakness in other markets;
The DIA with an inverted roof pattern. A break to the downside has a measured move of around the 50-day MA (red):
QQQ - Has a bit of Head&Shoulders pattern, currently at the 50-day SMA and neckline support
IWM - continues in a very narrow channel
Friday, October 5, 2012
24hr
Some charts of the SPY DIA QQQ IWM which include the pre- & post- market trade. Though this is a 5-minute chart, the top 3/10macd represents the 15-minute time frame while the bottom 3/10macd represents the 5-minute time frame. The blue vertical dash line indicates the regular trading hours Open.
SPY
QQQ
DIA
IWM
SPY
QQQ
DIA
IWM
Fri. 10_05
SPY fades
Once the overnight range midpoint gave up, the selling didn't give up. TICK divergences can "work" to the extent that one realizes when price is not confirming the divergence. In other words, you need to be able to read price bars to decipher strength or weakness.
A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:
While Advance/Decline trended down for the day, the Up/Down volume tried to get something going, but once giving up the IB_low after noon the Up/Down volume went decisively negative
15min & 5min with 3/10macd. The pullback of the fast line into the slow line, translating to the bear flag (2d-2c continuation). Had to try the early morning range breakout, and the 2c-2d long around 11:30. Also tried scalping long the previous day's high bounce and two lower supports, one of which was $145.70 which I didn't get filled on.
Here is a previously posted chart of the SPY 30-min with support/resistance
Here is an updated chart of the 130-min/30-min showing the 3d setup on the 130min (2c-2d on the daily) which tagged the 100% projection this morning
Here is a 15-minute chart of the SPY with the Advance/Decline on the left and Up/Down Volume on the right. Worth noting how the up volume was well into the upward move yesterday, while today showed muted readings, hinting at distribution.
The weekly and daily charts; I THINK the daily is a bullish thrusting pattern, but confirmation is always warranted. But I'm not particularly crazy about the weekly fast line crossing the slow line.
Once the overnight range midpoint gave up, the selling didn't give up. TICK divergences can "work" to the extent that one realizes when price is not confirming the divergence. In other words, you need to be able to read price bars to decipher strength or weakness.
A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:
While Advance/Decline trended down for the day, the Up/Down volume tried to get something going, but once giving up the IB_low after noon the Up/Down volume went decisively negative
15min & 5min with 3/10macd. The pullback of the fast line into the slow line, translating to the bear flag (2d-2c continuation). Had to try the early morning range breakout, and the 2c-2d long around 11:30. Also tried scalping long the previous day's high bounce and two lower supports, one of which was $145.70 which I didn't get filled on.
Here is a previously posted chart of the SPY 30-min with support/resistance
Here is an updated chart of the 130-min/30-min showing the 3d setup on the 130min (2c-2d on the daily) which tagged the 100% projection this morning
Here is a 15-minute chart of the SPY with the Advance/Decline on the left and Up/Down Volume on the right. Worth noting how the up volume was well into the upward move yesterday, while today showed muted readings, hinting at distribution.
The weekly and daily charts; I THINK the daily is a bullish thrusting pattern, but confirmation is always warranted. But I'm not particularly crazy about the weekly fast line crossing the slow line.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Thu. 10_04
Gap up, consolidate, momentum, pull back, consolidate, close near highs.
Early morning ping-pong between the opening swing, which was also the midpoint of the overnight range. Opening swing highs held support as did the overnight highs later in the afternoon.
A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:
Advance/Decline started, and remained, high the entire day. While Up/Down volume trended strongly higher all day.
15m and 5m with 3/10macd. The fuchsia lines were left in to highlight how a symmetrical triangle morphs into an ascending triangle. This looks ready to move higher in my opinion.
Butting up right against resistance
Today we achieved the 50% projection off of our most recent seed wave.
Early morning ping-pong between the opening swing, which was also the midpoint of the overnight range. Opening swing highs held support as did the overnight highs later in the afternoon.
A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:
Advance/Decline started, and remained, high the entire day. While Up/Down volume trended strongly higher all day.
15m and 5m with 3/10macd. The fuchsia lines were left in to highlight how a symmetrical triangle morphs into an ascending triangle. This looks ready to move higher in my opinion.
Butting up right against resistance
Today we achieved the 50% projection off of our most recent seed wave.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
wED 10_03
SPY with TICK
Opened near the overnight highs, sold off to the overnight lows where strong volume brought us back to the highs of the day. A pullback to the overnight range midpoint found buyers to break price out to the 50% extension of the overnight range. Initial support found at the confluence of IB_high, o/n_high, o/s_high and Opening print. Weak buying led to a further pullback which was capped off at the o/s_low.
A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:
Advance/Decline and Up/Down Volume both showing zero-line support today.
Most of my entries today were taken prior to the "trigger" entry.
The SPY still looks to be setting up under resistance. Tomorrow should be interesting in terms of a more definitive direction.
over $145.50 is important for a bullish bias
The QQQ is looking similar as it sets up under $69.25. You can make a bearish case for the daily chart showing a bear flag/pennant, but that could be erased with a close above the $69.50 mark
Jobless Claims at 8:30 EST tomorrow and Fed minutes at 2pm.
Opened near the overnight highs, sold off to the overnight lows where strong volume brought us back to the highs of the day. A pullback to the overnight range midpoint found buyers to break price out to the 50% extension of the overnight range. Initial support found at the confluence of IB_high, o/n_high, o/s_high and Opening print. Weak buying led to a further pullback which was capped off at the o/s_low.
A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:
Advance/Decline and Up/Down Volume both showing zero-line support today.
Most of my entries today were taken prior to the "trigger" entry.
The SPY still looks to be setting up under resistance. Tomorrow should be interesting in terms of a more definitive direction.
over $145.50 is important for a bullish bias
The QQQ is looking similar as it sets up under $69.25. You can make a bearish case for the daily chart showing a bear flag/pennant, but that could be erased with a close above the $69.50 mark
Jobless Claims at 8:30 EST tomorrow and Fed minutes at 2pm.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Tues. 10_02
Choppy day.
A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:
A/D_line started strong, but faded. Notice the interplay with the zero-line.
Most of my trades today were for small losses. Should have taken a long into the close on the momentum buy divergence and resulting squeeze, but I didn't. Blue arrows being entries, black being exits.
Still potential for a bullish move on the higher time frame, particularly over $145.00-$145.30s
A/D_line started strong, but faded. Notice the interplay with the zero-line.
Most of my trades today were for small losses. Should have taken a long into the close on the momentum buy divergence and resulting squeeze, but I didn't. Blue arrows being entries, black being exits.
Still potential for a bullish move on the higher time frame, particularly over $145.00-$145.30s
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