and in the most recent year, price bounced and put in a mid-summer higher low:
And more recently, looks to be in it's 3rd push down:
in these past two days price broke down from the $33 level
and today retraced steeply (nearly 78.6% since the close last Friday):
by the close today, price looked to have put in a bear flag. Watching $29 support level and possibly a breakdown from there (Support, becomes Resistance, becomes Support, becomes Resistance!):
So, if you're long at this point, where can we look for potential targets/resistance?
So, lessons learned:
- Draw a Fib. Rtr from the most recent swing low to high. Can price hold above the 78.6% retracement? Price reversal and volume tell you it can...Test the highs.
Indicated on the chart below is the entry and exits taken on this trade (down arrow with small horizontal lines). The ellipses on the 3/10 oscillator highlight patterns to look for as entry potential. The first ellipse shows how the fast line falls under the slow line and corrects into it at the highs of the day, leading to a correction off of the trendline on a momentum divergence. 
Also highlighted on this chart is a bullish Wolfe Wave setup that occurred. Unfortunately, when I put my order in to go long price ran away from me. The buy divergence lent confidence to the entry, while vwap gave some confidence for the target line.
Should RIMM slip into this gap range I'd be looking for potential support at around $56.5 (78.6% retracement and 61.8% Fib extension), followed by the $54 area (previous lows & 100% Fib extension).
Should we bounce from here, look for possible resistance come into play at an overhead trendline ($59-$60).
A bounce, we look for short opportunities either at the PDH's, the 50EMA, or overhead trendlines (depending on how strong the bounce is).
Based on the shorter time frame I would be leaning on a short bias going into Monday and watching to see how the Previous Day's Lows would be tested (or a test of the 78.6% retracement level from Firday's range).
Here's how I'll look at it:
The green horizontal line was my entry price. The white arrow was my entry bar. Again, I need to display some patience and enter on a green bar with some range in it.
Also there's XLV (Health Care Sector ETF) trying to recover previous support levels.
Within XLV there's BMY that broke out of a long-term sideways range and may have some follow-through going forward.
In hindsight perhaps I should have snapped my Fib. lines between the pre-market highs and lows and entered on the opening base break.
The second trade was a Wolfe Wave setup. I had a buy limit order in at $109 and came within 2-cents of getting filled. I then jumped the gun to get in and, as a result ended up with a lousy fill and got stopped out as price tested the lows. Again, in hindsight, I should have had more patience and my stop should have been below the LOD. Being an Opex Friday one should expect a choppy market and patience would have paid off. I did jump the gun on my entry and should have waited for a 5-min bar to close bullishly before getting in.
Well, at least Opex is over and I'm starting to feel better from the cold I've had all week. Next week should be perhaps a little dull, with the Thanksgiving holiday shortening the week, and then it's December already!! crazy!
While on the daily chart, price formed another Cup w. handle pattern recently, with a measured move very close to the one projected on the weekly.
This morning price gaped above a previous resistance level; an important step in making an attempt at the long-term gap fill.
It was supported today at a trendline extension which happened to be right on top of a 38% retracement level (drawn coming off of the lows and into the $65 pivot) and of course a momentum divergence.
And to top it all off, it looks as though it could be setting up for a 5th Wave!
Fortunately in this example you would have been able to exit with a profit or at break-even. But it is a good example in monitoring the health of these patterns throughout their cycle, especially around the 1-3 line where price can find support (2-4 line resistance in a bullish wave) when making a move to their target line.
Similar resistance above for the Dow Transportation and Utilities Index. Curious thing about these two is the Right-Angled and Descending Broadening formations taking shape (a bullish pattern).
The chart below has horizontal lines indicating the previous day's Open/High/Low/Close.
It's also interesting to observe how much price has moved in these last three days. Key in on the 78.6% retracement zone.
On the 15-min chart we closed above our bullishly oriented Moving Averages (though if you use Simple Moving Averages price is wedged between the two MA's, so whatever). Price has retraced over 38% from our lows by today's close. Perhaps Monday we'll see a gap or move up to test the $110 price, being that we spent so much time around it today and Wednesday.
The weekly is interesting; showing those momentum divergences since March. March through July gave two divergent impulse pushes following a small window of downside momentum (which only amounted to a 7% correction). From mid-July to the end of this week, we have had two similar (and smaller still) divergent impulse pushes, and while price closed at it's highest price since October '08 it has barely any momentum left in it. Either we get more impulse up or correct another 7%, but something's got to give.
Watch for another bounce or potential failure.
