The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at toddstrade@gmail.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.


Thursday, November 18, 2010

SPY top down

Starting with the Yearly chart, Price is in the upper 25% of it's recorded range:
Yearly:

and above the midpoint of the 2008 bar, yet resisting the 61.8% for now:


With the month coming to a close it should be important to see if this November bar will close above or below the May corrective bar as the $122 (61.8% retracement) price continues to be rejected:
Monthly


As the 2bTop still has potential, a close below $119 by month's end could bring a correction (A close below $119 may be difficult with tomorrow being OpEx).  There is a confluence of support below at around $112, it is the monthly 50% Fib level and the weekly 50% retracement level following this most recent advance.
Weekly:

And now the Daily.  Price was rejected on the first test of a 50% retracement following the most recent impulse down:
Daily:

3 comments:

Denali92 said...

I keep looking at that September monthly bar and think that we need to re-trace to the middle of it at some point in time - December would be the ideal time...

But maybe it has to occur at the end of Jan / Feb - at some point I am certain we will get to that midpoint and close all those gaps down below too!

Unknown said...

$112 looks solid, no? I'm wondering how long the currency/equity correlation will hold up.
The EUR/USD & USD/JPY look as though they have some more testing possible at their highs/lows respectively.
We shall see.

Denali92 said...

112 looks very solid - though there are a few gaps down below there that really should get filled before we go a lot higher.... of course, we left unfilled gaps in July 09, so maybe the Aug 31 gap will also stay open for a long time.

Anyway, I am not going to get too bullish until we have a significan re-test, the weeklies are less OB and the NDX, midcaps and smallcaps surrender some of their strength relative to SPX