2b

Hard not to be non-committal just ahead of FOMC minutes, but the IMF headline certainly shook things up.
Here's a look at the 30-min SPY.  The 3d criteria setting up the long and the 2b criteria setting up at prior highs (1-cent above previous, January, highs).

Nothing overly bearish at this point, especially considering the recent run up.  The hourly turning negative can preclude some faster time frame short setups, however, it would be preferable to wait for the fast line to tick higher then continue lower (XYZ wave) for an entry on that (hourly) time frame.

As an ammendment to the above 30min chart:
This still has potential to break out from the $184.70 base.  If that's the case, the current 30min 2c criteria would be actionable with a faster time frame (10-min below, right) going from 3d criteria to 3a (or 1a).

{updated}
Support gave way, turning the faster time frame 3d criteria into a 4c continuation and turning the higher time frame (30-min) 3/10macd fast line back down lower after a tick up.

the damage

SPY hit two targets after the trigger bar

IWM coming just shy 3R, possible it gets hit overnight or on the open tomorrow.

QQQ it's all about the ability to hold a higher low at this point.  Just shy of 2nd target

DIA (similarly the SPY) it would be important for momentum to follow through on the downside, otherwise a buy divergence can come into play.

Wed 11_13

We've been waiting for the 3/10macd fast line and slow line to catch up with one another again, which will probably take place on tomorrow's open.  By that time, the move is stretched and one would be buying late into that time frame.  So, we need a way to anticipate this potential move by clueing off of a faster time frame.
Here is the Daily (left) 1H (middle) and 15-min time frames

Momentum is in progress, and the only thing to look out for would be lack of follow-through once the first round of selling has occurred.  It is Options Expiration week and anything can happen.

Just looking at the higher time frames things are still pretty bullish.
This Daily chart has two macd indicators.  The bottom is the standard 3/10-macd that reflects the Daily time frame; the one above it is a macd that reflects a time frame three times slower (closely mimics the weekly 3/10 macd).
Included are potential entry considerations for the daily time frame.  The highlighted regions are indicating like occurrences, in this case, where the fast line was less than the slow line once the fast line turned back up to positive from negative .  So the most recent long "triggers" have taken place, but since the fast line is less than the slow line I would look to exit on the daily fast line ticking back down, the way it did in August.

Thu. 04_25

Interesting day, a lot of offers in the afternoon; pretty early in the afternoon as well, not your usual 2:30 selling

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

breadth-

Volume profile - perfect tag of the naked vpoc at $159.27

ES with globex

Fri. 04_05

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

breadth- strongly bearish all day, but also Advance/Decline (which of course closely mirrors the S&P) trending higher all day

Took half my long position in the morning for a loss, had I just kept my ATR stop in place the position would have worked itself out.  The 5-min chart is using a 'gapless' 3/10macd.  I prefer to default to this indicator on large gap days.  The up-arrows, representing long trades, indicate entries, not necessarily "triggers" based on the 3/10macd

  

The following volume profile chart is a bit of a screw-up.  I had intended on using red for HighVolumeNodes and Blue for LowVolumeNodes but, as is obvious, I mixed the two up on some instances.  Irregardless, you can figure them out:

The higher time frame, though showing obvious criteria (price in corrective mode) it's not very easy to swing trade.

When shorts are slow to cover and buyers hibernate, it's called a 'Bear' market. This just isn't a Bear market.  Shorts are quick to cover and temporary buyers feed the fuel to that covering.

which way

Looking at the higher timeframe SPY, the daily really can go either way.  The fast line on the 3/10macd can tick up (which would read as continuation on the price chart, or it can tick down and signal further continuation.  When viewing the 65m chart with it (on the right) the fast line on this 3/10 macd can either form an XYZ corrective wave (which would read as 4d-4c) or cross the slow line and turn into 3a (further test higher).  Not much of a clue.

Looking at a slightly faster time frame than the daily, the 130min (3-bars per day) is showing the 2c-2d criteria (not necessarily bearish). While pairing it with the 30min we would be looking for a 3d-3a criteria to trigger a long.

Wed. 04_03

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Breadth - declined rapidly following the ISM #

Opening swing - I missed a really good short opportunity here 10-minutes into the open

The first hour or so into a trend day is difficult because there is such uncertainty that all support levels are tested for acceptance

Another breakdown from a channel

Daily 2b criteria developing into a larger correction (2c-4c) I would be looking for the 5min to form an XYZ wave (4d-4c continuation)

Thu. 02_28

today's trade

3-point drop in the last minute of trading.  Looks as though March may have an interesting start tomorrow.
Unfortunately didn't take the short into the end of day.....so dumb

Looking like a lower high, followed by a double-top at resistance.  Today amounted to a faded breakout.
Higher time frame (65m) still showing a bearish favored trend, the 3/10macd slow/fast line is crossed and I'd like to see an XYZ wave on the faster (15m) time frame to short but I would still suspect a higher low to be defended.  $150.80 = 50% retrace of this past move.

Tue. 02_19

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Having a hard time holding and adding

Nothing's changed, we move up, we cosolidate, we move up

Tue. 02_05

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Started off the day with a 3d criteria setup.  Middle of the day was a 2c-2d criteria setup, and finished the day with a 2b criteria short setup.  Slightly higher high today, but a double-top until proven otherwise.

It looks as though it's just a matter of gauging the next pullback.  15-min is in 2c-2d criteria so the current pullback should be supported.  It's the pullback higher (the bounce we can expect from today's late day selling) that will be more telling.  So, I'd be looking to short some sort of XYZ corrective wave on the 15-min, otherwise buy in anticipation of the fast line going green again.

With the symmetrical cycle price pattern taking shape, the Daily chart (below, right) looks like it's putting in a 3-push pattern)

Lastly, today saw the highest ADV./DECL. Volume since this year's rally began.  Which happened to follow the largest NEGATIVE ADV/DECL reading since this rally began.  Seems to smell of distribution perhaps.

Wed 01_30

today's trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

I don't care for being in the market during FOMC minutes, but once the dust settles a directional move can unfold.

I should have stayed more focused (patient) with the higher time frame unfolding.  Bear flag (channel) breakdown was fairly straight forward if you can ignore the noise.
The 65-min showing 2c-2d still, which would mean caution once we saw the 15min turn 3a criteria, while a long entry could form with the 3d criteria, but this will take time as the 15-min works off the bearish momentum (unless we have a V-bottom squeeze).  

A pullback from here is just that.  The momentum built up by this January move would take extreme momentum or a lengthy period of time to do real damage to it and create (higher time frame) sell setups.

Daily on the right in the chart below; that's a lot of bullish momentum that was formed this year.  So, we would be looking to buy the 2c-2d criteria going forward (in the same way I've been highlighting this criteria on the 65-min chart above.

Tue. 1_29

today's trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Breakout again:

Higher time frame showing some selling tails on waning momentum (3-push).  The 15-min showing potential 2b selling (or at least not buying) criteria

Daily showing resemblance to the past few years, price riding the upper keltner channel (2.5ATR band)