The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at toddstrade@gmail.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.


Showing posts with label trades. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trades. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

HES shorts, RIMM short/long

A number of trade setups in RIMM today with only one break-even trade. Green lines indicate entries (all but one long), red line indicates a break-even trade:

The first entry was @ $55 with a target of 55.50 and 56
Second entry was under 55.50 with a target of 56
Third, a short at 55.85 (because of the 2-b top setup) with a target to at least 55.6-55.5
Fourth, a long at 55.5 again, ended up as a scratch.
Fifth, again 55.50 long, target HOD or 55.85
Sixth, another 2-b top setup, short 55.85 target 55.50.
2 short setups in HES, both entry targets were the LOD and taken as an Open-price rejection

Monday, July 12, 2010

ugh

Today was a day which happens when you look at the 1-min chart too much and over-trade. Especially in an environment that taunts you to over-trade, forcing you to learn the hard way if you can't get it through your thick head.
Had I just stepped back and got a clearer perspective I could have easily rode out a trade that work against me originally, only to sail upwards throughout the remainder of the day.
Starting off, price was coming off of a momentum push up, so I was watching how deeply price would retrace before buying started in (price only retraced slightly, giving a sign that long positions were staying long, anticipating higher prices, like maybe that overhead 20-day MA).
So, initially I was looking short at least down to the first level of support.I started off with a decent short entry and exitWhat followed was an utter mess. Don't ask what I was doing keeping really tight stops on a stock with a >$1 average range.
Sliced and diced while watching a 1-min chart.
The obvious that I missed, and all I really needed to do for the day (aside from maybe add to an initial long position):
A classic bottoming pattern (Phoenix) that I actually got long on, but stopped myself out!!!

Saturday, July 10, 2010

HES short

A look at a short taken in HES on Friday.
Taken because of what I saw on the faster time frame, but I'll start with what may be helpful to look for on the slower time frame.
Missed the original breakdown move from the early session, but it did demonstrate nice measured moves throughout the day.
13-min chart
I just happened across HES while it was at it's LOD and started watching it closer as it was making it's second bounce off of the $52.25 area.
The fact that price was at it's LOD while the majority of the market was Up drew my attention. But when I saw this pattern on the fast time frame I was looking to get short with a very tight $0.12) stop. Curious how price formed the same pattern at support before the breakdown as it did into resistance on the consolidation post-$53.25 breakdown (a mirror image). Also nice how the measured move from the breakdown of the bearish wedge also happened to coincide with the PDL, giving an encouraging target.

Entries & Exits:

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Thursday

today's POT trades. Not entirely happy with how I traded it, but it is what it is:

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

short day

Due to overwhelming popular demand, I'll be trying to change the direction of this blog by adding more actual trades taken.
Only two trades taken today, both in POT. Two, because I got stopped out on my initial short. Stops were kept tighter than the previous bars high.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

RIMM short

Was watching RIMM waiting for this setup to work itself out.
Price set up a long entry late in the day on the 27th while today was the opposite, basing off of a lower pivot level short.Today, price found buying around the previous day's low (PDL) and selling at the previous day's VPOC.
A second bounce around the PDL, selling at a lower high.
In the meantime, RIMM formed a sideways consolidation zone.Finally, a weak bounce, again at the PDL, failed off the Open in a bear flag pattern.I was watching the PDL for a possible bounce, but internals were increasingly negative and once we sliced through this previous support level I held on for $59.50 for half, and $59 (original target) for the other half 2-minutes before the close. Though I did hold on to 5% going into tomorrow, targeting a test of a naked VPOC.

All-in-all, RIMM looks pretty busted. In an environment of trepidation, the strong issues will be held longest. This is getting the feel of an issue that is being shed. If it breaks $58 this should really have some momentum to the downside.The weekly chart looks busted, and on a broad perspective looks like a test of H&S neckline (log chart)

Friday, May 14, 2010

POT Squeeze

POT bounced a little above $100 this morning, igniting a short squeeze back to previous acceptance, which was then rejected (longs covering? shorts entering).
Here's the daily showing a minor support level at today's lows.Today's entry:
Why enter short up there? Previous day's VPOC (while under today's lows was also a VPOC).
Looking at the price distribution, today's resistance level was a previous price congestion level, take a look at all those POC's:

Thursday, May 13, 2010

pullbacks

While price bounces within a narrow range consolidation, it's bound to break out sooner or later, and today provided some examples of why a higher probability trade results from waiting out the move for a pullback.
Here was an example in POT where price had been bouncing around in a congestion range since the previous afternoon. Notice the opening drive through the bottom of the range resulted in a snap-back to the top of its range (example in waiting for a pullback). While later in the day the breakdown pullback was easier to gauge.Here's what I was looking at on a faster chart with entry/exit arrows:Later in the day POT provided an example of why not to get too eager jumping into a breach of support/range. I later missed a decent entry:
RIMM broke down from a symmetrical triangle (a form of narrow range consolidation) and pulled back before extending lower. I actually exited half at the PDL (red dotted line) before exiting the remainder at the green up arrow.FCX; I didn't actually trade the first breakdown from consolidation, but the break-out later in the day provided a good opportunity. This highlights the concept of avoiding buying a breakout/breakdown as it's happening. If you're not in it before it breaks out, it's best to wait for a pullback before entering. In this case one might have bought the initial breakout and may have been stopped out on a return back to the congestion range. A realistic target in today's market (mixed/neutral internals) was within that PDC, PDH, or Open price range (blue dotted line, green dotted line, yellow dotted line respectively).
And finally, another one I missed today (thinking it might pull back more) was a symmetrical triangle in IWM:

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Wednesday 02_17

Another mostly choppy low volume day. The SPY did present a tradeable pattern in the early session after a false breakout (2B Top). One can either be aggressive, and fade the breakout (as everyone was expecting heavy resistance at this 1100 $INX level), or wait for the move to take shape and enter on a pullback and target the previous day's highs (PDH) or the Previous day's Close (PDC).
ADV/DECL issues and UP/DOWN Volume leaned neutral to bullish throughout the day, perking up towards the close.
Curiously, the SPY and UUP traded similarly throughout the day.......which sets the stage for a breakout of one or the other. Should equities break out a test of overhead levels will make or break this recent corrective move.
The SPY has $110.50 overheadIWM could get pretty dramatic if it makes a play for $63.25The Q's have a 61.8% retracement at the $45 level
and the DIA actually broke above it's 50% level and found support on previous resistance ($103)
Which all seems pretty bullish, until you look at the Daily charts and start seeing these gap-up, narrow range dojis and ascending wedges. While the Dollar sits in the upper range of a tight sideways consolidation after strength to the upsideeither one (index or dollar) could have a blow-off moment. Equities could fall from here with a breakout of the dollar and perhaps hesitate at the lows should the dollar come back to test Resistance-2-Support ($24 on UUP).

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

setups today

Two nice trades today in POT and RIMM.
POT played Pong all day within a $1 range. The setup I took was around 11 am where price bounced and retraced off of $118 (those are nice 61.8% retracements that end up looking like inverted H&S patterns, some call it a "Phoenix"). There was also a nice one towards the close, where price retraced a little more steeply than the other, but was good above $118.5. This range was very tradable today, with shorts/longs based on the bollinger bands and the whole & 50-cent increments. I need to recognize this behavior earlier on in the session.
RIMM has a $65 pivot...and as such, price consolidated narrowly under this level this morning. The first move to $65 was a fakeout and looked to be breaking down from an ascending triangle (a measured move from which would target the lows of the day). Being that price didn't give up much ground from the apparent breakdown, it was still looking bullish. My entry was $64.89 and my target was $65.75 (based on previous resistance) and I actually held the entire way.Unfortunately I didn't short the double top back down to $65, and beyond.

Friday, December 4, 2009

SPY 12_04

Another "Spike and Ledge" setup this morning as the SPY registered another minimal new high.
The SPY did put in some relatively strong volume today (270+million shares, 24-days since we last saw this) and closed the week with both a higher high and higher close.Funny thing about that volume. A strong order came in right around the previous day's close to support this afternoon's downward swing.Intra-day we saw some nice equal moves hitting their Fib. Extension targets.
And finally, the SPY looks to be in a bullish Wolfe Wave. A breakdown and I'll look for a contrary wave (based off of 11/9 as the 1-point). A push higher and the "sweet spot" has an awkwardly wide range.Speaking of Wolfe Waves, take a look at the recent activity in the U.S. Dollar Index:

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Fib Levels

SPY broke down in a dramatic way late in the day (finally).
It came to rest right in the 78.6% retracement level, as measured from the close on 11/30 (61.8% if measured from the swing low of that day).
I traded AIG short this afternoon as it broke down from it's $30.50 base.
I'm still looking for a climactic move down in this name to test recent lows. Next level of support is the $29 level as mentioned in a previous post.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

snap-back trade

I traded AIG short this morning after it snapped back to test the previous day's range.
Some interesting Fibonacci levels provided interesting pivots for the day's trading.
The following chart is a bit crowded, but I tried to clean it up by taking out all Fib. levels that didn't have any bearing on this example.
The 3 Fibonacci measurements are based on 3 time frames in a way:
- the larger time frame; It's important to see where the current price is trading relative to the previous day's range. So, I put a Fib. between the previous day's high and low. Going into today we want to see what levels are acting as Support/Resistance. In this case, the 50% retracement holds on the open (and later at the lows). Provided a target as well.
- the intermediate time frame; Measured between the Previous day's swing high and the opening low. The upward test at the open failed the 78.6%, giving us a lower high. Look for weakness of consolidation before testing those highs again.
- the Shorter time frame; Measured between the opening low and high extremes. Not entirely necessary in this case, but it's fun to check for confluence levels. In this case price held above this 78.6% level while barely testing the higher time frames 50% level.
Anyway; the arrow down is entry short, arrow up is exit, horizontal line is entry price, with a stop $0.25 above.
Going into tomorrow we should look to see how price tests today's highs. A test of $32 wouldn't be out of the question, but it looks pretty weak right here. $30.50 provided support these past two days, and wile price bounced off this level yesterday into the open, when tested again it had a much weaker bounce. On the daily, price consolidated into a 3-bar triangle (lower high than the previous two highs and a lower low than the previous two lows). This pattern tends to respond in a similar way to the nr7 "coiled spring." For further support on the downside check out my previous post on the matter.