the damage

SPY hit two targets after the trigger bar

IWM coming just shy 3R, possible it gets hit overnight or on the open tomorrow.

QQQ it's all about the ability to hold a higher low at this point.  Just shy of 2nd target

DIA (similarly the SPY) it would be important for momentum to follow through on the downside, otherwise a buy divergence can come into play.

IWM

Was the only of the indexes (DIA, SPY, QQQ) that triggered a sell signal on the houlry.  Primary target achieved.  $110.06 secondary.

secondary target achieved

Wed. 02_20

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Left a lot on the table today :/

Price held a 50% retrace (Fri. lows to yesterday's high) up until FOMC minutes came out.  Very weak attempt to rally which seems unusual for the post-FOMC fade move (just a validation of the strong selling on the tape).  

 There wasn't much to go on in terms of 3/10macd.  Price was stretched obviously (all year basically) and we just kept cycling higher.  The higher time frame became cautious with a fast line/slow line cross (vertical dash line and shaded rectangle).  This coincided with the completion of a small XYZ corrective wave on the faster time frame.  At this point it was a matter of, do we just bounce and continue higher (as we have all year) or do we have a steeper correction?  The faster time frame ended up forming a larger XYZ corrective wave.

During the FOMC minutes time frame the 15-min 3/10macd was showing potential 3d criteria setup.  When the 3d fails it has potential for a rollover move such as this one, which ends up turning the 3/10macd citeria from 3d into 4c continuation.

Tues. 11_27

Today's trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Only took 3 trades.

First up arrow has an "X" indicating that I considered the trigger but didn't enter.

Was disappointed in a late entry on the first trade I took (long).

Second long entry I got out with a very small profit based on the order flow at the time.

Third trade, short, was before the "triggered" entry.

The higher time frame showing a potential short entry on the close today.  I wouldn't want to consider long positions until the 65m chart recovers a fast line > slow line orientation.

A look at the IWM daily chart showing a rejection candle at previous support and at the top of it's long-intact upper channel.

Fri. 11_2

Considering we had a shortened trading week and it is the week prior to elections, it was essentially an undecided (chop) week in the equity indices; weekly high-wave or long-legged dojis.
The SPY is still in a corrective (and quite symmetrical) cycle process.

At any rate, here is the SPY for today

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:   

The 15m & 5m with 3/10 macd below.  I didn't take the short trigger indicated with the first down arrow.  I did take most of the triggers in the "Chop" zone (highlighted), but only for a loss of about half of an ES point.  I didn't take the 12:20 down arrow as I was already short at the 12:05 bar.

Fri. 10_05

SPY fades
Once the overnight range midpoint gave up, the selling didn't give up.  TICK divergences can "work" to the extent that one realizes when price is not confirming the divergence.  In other words, you need to be able to read price bars to decipher strength or weakness.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:   

While Advance/Decline trended down for the day, the Up/Down volume tried to get something going, but once giving up the IB_low after noon the Up/Down volume went decisively negative

15min & 5min with 3/10macd.  The pullback of the fast line into the slow line, translating to the bear flag (2d-2c continuation).  Had to try the early morning range breakout, and the 2c-2d long around 11:30.  Also tried scalping long the previous day's high bounce and two lower supports, one of which was $145.70 which I didn't get filled on.

Here is a previously posted chart of the SPY 30-min with support/resistance

Here is an updated chart of the 130-min/30-min showing the 3d setup on the 130min (2c-2d on the daily) which tagged the 100% projection this morning

Here is a 15-minute chart of the SPY with the Advance/Decline on the left and Up/Down Volume on the right.  Worth noting how the up volume was well into the upward move yesterday, while today showed muted readings, hinting at distribution.

The weekly and daily charts;   I THINK the daily is a bullish thrusting pattern, but confirmation is always warranted.  But I'm not particularly crazy about the weekly fast line crossing the slow line.

repeat

The SPY has been repeating a similar cycle for the past two weeks.
Following a short squeeze type of rally, price has then rolled over in an XYZ corrective wave.
The 3/10macd 3a criteria describes price as testing resistance.  Should resistance break and price goes higher the fast line shows greater momentum and the slow line is often pulled positive.  This behavior can often begin a new trend.  However, rather then a trend developing, what we have seen is price being sold and correcting most/all of the previous gains.
Here are two looks at what I'm talking about, the latter just highlighting the XYZ waves

A broader look in the chart below; we haven't gone very far, but there are clear areas to watch

bear flag

Bear flag setup in the SPY yesterday.  A particularly poor trade on my behalf, getting out WAY too soon and failing to get back in when I realized I got out way too soon.
In criteria jargon, this is a 2d-4c continuation setup.  Again, it's just a bear flag, I use the criteria as a way to subjectively identify it with the indicator.  It is just the fast line pulling into a down sloping slow line that is crossing (or has crossed) the zero line.

I partialled out for around 134.70 average, ugh

Fri. 3_30

GOOG had a nice bearish trend day to it on Friday.  Momentum on the open, pullback in the later morning, momentum continuation in the afternoon.

If one were considering the 10am momentum to be a 3d criteria setup (as it was a buy divergence) you could have gotten long (and price did get as much as a 100% projection off of its flag/seed wave).  There were two main things to remember in such a case; 1). With a 3d setup there is always a resistance zone to trade into and/or overcome, 2). You should trade through or above the 20- &/or 50-MA's;  Notice how the 20-period Moving Average contained any further price movement higher, thereby retaining the trend.

On the topic of the 3d setup, GS had what I often consider a 3d, but in criteria-speak is technically a 1d though the result and mentality behind it are the same (3-pushes to a low, inverse H&S, OR bear trap).

tues. 1_17

Boring day.  Many trades ended up being closed for break-even.
AMZN was a good long, but took it off WAY too soon.  I actually exited on a trigger to go long (second up-arrow under the macd).

FSLR long was basically a b/e trade, really should have gone short at $40.25 for that 2b short setup

GS long, another b/e trade.  I was targeting the $100.35 area and price just came short.  The short setup played out well though (2d-to-4c continuation, a.k.a. Bear Flag).  The first up arrow and first down arrow are a long entry and the long Sell to Close.