Thu. 9_27

SPY reclaiming the 20-day MA

SPY with TICK below.  Morning selling capped off at the overnight lows.  First test of the open swing high was rejected but later broke out from this range.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:     

Advance/Decline started off strong this morning while the Up/Down volume trended higher all day

15-min and 5-min with 3/10macd below.  Slow line back to positive with a breakout of the previous range.  

thurs. 9_20

SPY with TICK & volume.  Significant volume at the lows of the morning (on a + TICK div) as well as on the low TICK of the day at the IB_high.  Notice the 1:30-2:30 negative TICK div (perhaps a sign of a small squeeze, forcing shorts to cover)

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:

Advance/Decline issues trended up all day with price while the Up/Down_volume trended down, but rounded and turned after 1:00pm. 

SPY 15m & 5min with 3/10macd below.  First up arrow long entry was taken at the prior bar because of the inherent strength.  Blue arrows are entries, black arrows are exits.

AAPL 2c-2d

Another 2c-2d criteria in AAPL today.
The first long trade wasn't much of a performer, however the resulting pullback formed a nice flag that had a decent measured move.

Wed. 9_12

Today's SPY with TICK.

Indications given to TICK divergences at meaningful price levels:
First Up arrow - higher TICK low on lower low in price just above overnight low.
First down arrow - High TICK of the day on a lower price high at the Opening price
Second down arrow - Higher high in price lower high in TICK at the opening swing high and just shy of IB_high.
Second up arrow - Lower low in price higher low in TICK (both sequentially and for the day), hammer candle at overnight low again and near gap fill.

A good example of the A/D-line bouncing at zero

Here's a messy one - this chart is to highlight the 3/10macd and looking to trade a continuation move, which is reflected in the fast line correcting off of the slow line.  A bullish continuation move is labeled A-B-C
while a bearish wave is labeled X-Y-Z.  Essentially, I'm looking to position myself after the "B" point (bullish) in anticipation of at least the C point (re-test), but hopefully more (the continuation).  Likewise, if bearish, I'm looking to position myself around or after the "Y" point, in order to anticipate a re-test of support or continuation beyond.

So, going into this morning we had a gap up (bullish momentum) giving us our "A" point.  We then corrected ("B") then tried to test resistance "C".  The 5-minute chart on the right shows an entry long, which was exited just above vwap after failure of the opening price.
The first down arrow reflects a short entry for anticipation of the "Z"  aspect of an XYZ wave.  More or less a scratch trade.
Second up arrow, a long entry in anticipation of the C1 move resulting from the A1-B1-C1 wave (also inverse H&S (sort of) on 5min).  Not a premium exit, the rejection was pretty quick.
Two down arrows because I scaled back and then went back in between those two bars (amateur).  Fib projection showing price targets.  This short was based on anticipation of the X2-Y2-Z2 wave.

shake-out

Price was nice and orderly on the gap-up for the first 25-minutes as we went sideways along the pivot line, forming a small triangle. Failure led to a nice swift move down. I mentioned a couple of days ago a strategy to play off of a gapping open that worked nicely today (if price gaps up, and price comes back to the previous day's close then look to go short, the opposite being true for a gap-down coming up to PDC. Of course the size of the move back to PDC is going to be a factor in making the trade).
Being that keeping count of Elliott Waves just hurts my brain, I like to use a more simplistic approach in following price structure. A count known as the "ABC" Price Pulse which I learned about through a L.B.R. presentation.
It's simply a price impulse, followed by consolidation, followed then by another price pulse. The following chart of today's SPY on a 5-min basis was a perfect example of this concept.
I have also included numbers (1, 2, 3) which represent another concept (again, discussed in the above link's presentation) where a price impulse tends to have 3 pushes to them. Also, take note that the "B" wave is a construct of a flag pattern. Allow the chart to illustrate, hopefully it's not too confusing.Conceptually, it goes something like this; The A-wave is where volume/size comes in and moves the market after being in a sideways/indecisive/equilibrium level. The B-wave follows where the early-birds distribute (take profits) on part (or all) of their position, while late-comers join in and the additional volume brings price down in the final C-wave.

Anyway, there were a couple of things tipping off a potential bottom in today's early morning sell-off; a TICK divergence (also notice that the TICK didn't get overly bearish, even at it's lowest level), which also appeared on the 15-min chart as a momentum divergence, and to a lesser extent, the resilience of this lower channel line which given support on two other occasions (yellow support line within the 15-min chart).
Speaking of shake-out, here's a trade I got shaken out of today because (1) I didn't give it ample wiggle room, and (2) I was distracted with a 1-minute chart (hence the shakeout) , while I should have kept focus on the larger time-frame (5-min) and my strategy behind the trade. Why I didn't get back in is beyond me. The strategy behind it was a simple gap-fill, with confirmation given in the form of an ascending triangle and price basing at previous support.