Fri. 05_03

First buy based on 50% Fib. retrace (Really should have been in off the open.  Really, really should have been in on the NFP release).  Other trades during the day were smaller scalps.  Second up-arrowdoesn't show exits.

With bullish wind in your sails, it's a little easier to "trust" some typical TICK divergences (highlighted).  Selling (profit-taking) seemed prevalent throughout the day.

I believe LBR refers to the setup below as an "Anti" which shows itself as a small flag.   In toddstrade™ nomenclature I refer to it as 1b-to-1a.  The "trigger" would be the faster time frame fast line going green (in the scenario below the faster time frame was showing 2c-2d criteria so you could drill down further still and look for a 3d criteria on a faster time frame).  The discretionary aspect of this approach arrises in making the decision to either wait until the bar closes or get in as price is breaking out.  

As an aside, a picture perfect "First Cross" setup occurred on 4/23 (indicated with an up-arrow on that date) on this higher time frame ES chart (below, left).  Also 1b-1a criteria except the slow line just came up through the zero-line. 

The day's range with volume profile

Tue. 04_30

Held the 50% retrace from Friday's low to Monday's high, back to close on the highs for the last day of April.  Got a little chopped up into the last hour.

Volume Profile coming into the day.  A very similar profile formed today as it was yesterday.  Today we filled in the low volume node area in the $158.70-.90 range, still a large volume node (acceptance) in the 59.40 - 59.70 area.

ES with globex

 Another bar in the books for the monthly time frame.  8th month into our inverted cycle (as goes the Stevenson PTT concept)

Mon 04_29

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

First hour:

Breadth - started out pretty strong in the morning, rermaind so throughout the day

Volume profile coming into the day

The weekly SPY has been showing this divergence for some time now (similar to the "overbought can remain so for a long time" a divergence can see price continue to go contrary to the divergent signal).  The daily is clearly showing a cycle environment.  While it could be a topping pattern a move out of this INX 1600 ceiling on momentum should result in a measured move higher.  So far the SPY is in a double-top with potential for a complex Head & Shoulders pattern.  Wednesday is May 1 (sell in May cliche) AND a Fed day FYI

Mon 04_22

 A typical move you see a lot of in the SPY; Higher high price breakout (1), pullback making a lower low (2) but price retains a significant level on multiple tests (more visible on the faster time frame), which lead to  price squeezing higher.

today's breadth

Opening swing and first hour (Initial Balance).  Very wide IB range today, yet the high was still taken out (higher value being priced in).

Volume Profile coming into today

Volume Profile going forward

ES globex, Opening session in black vertical dash line, arrows indicating entry potentials

Higher time frame:  Daily price is spending a good deal of time within the 20- & 50-day MA window.  A large gap remains overhead, and it would be healthy to spend some time auctioning this gap range, but a 65-min fast line/slow line cross would temporarily change this higher time frame bullishness.

Crude Oil-

Gold -

Wed. 2_27

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Criteria 1b-1a throughout the day which means trades which anticipate a breakout and or base break.

The red diagonal line in the 15m chart above represents the cycle price and time projection I drew before the market opened this morning based on the symmetry of the cycles shown below:

The fuchsia line in the chart above reflects the cyclic trend line (a la Stevenson PTT) where a close through that line would indicate the beginning of the next regular cycle.  A partial decline followed by a return to the $152.25 area would be pretty bullish.  

The sketchiest thing at this point is the lower high scenario indicated on the 65m (also a reverse divergence currently) with the 15m showing a 2b criteria (Head & Shoulders pattern on the 15m 3/10macd).  

Also should point out a potential reverse divergence between the S&P price vs. S&P breadth.
S&P Advancing/Declining (left) and S&P Up/Down volume (right)

Fri. 02_22

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

First long and short nearly evened themselves out, trying to get a feel for which way the market wanted to go.

Third trade, long, was the anticipation of the 15m 3/10macd going back to 1a (from 1b).

Fourth trade, short, was anticipating the 2c on 15m 3/10macd but you don't really know how much of a pullback you'll get.  The 5m had a tweezer top, an "M" top, overhead supply from the previous day's selling (bearish "trend") AND STILL price would't give up the IB_High (which was a confluence of the o/s_high and o/n_high areas.  Took a small loss.

Fifth trade, long, anticipating the 2c-2d criteria setup to play out,  I got out for scraps and walked away from the computer.  F@(%!

Higher time frame...no pullback, V-bottom so far.  Maybe it was a Bull trap if the recent news (Moody's GB downgrade) has any effect

Otherwise, there's this similarity that can play out:
242-days ago something very similar happened in the SPY that happened today.

Thu. 02_14

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

I'm going to start adding up/down arrows to the 15m in order to reference the setup I'm anticipating on this time frame. 3d criteria at the open.  Instead of adding in the late afternoon I (foolishly?) I was in and out.  Breadth was relatively neutral and OpEx week are my excuses.  Price nailed the 50% Fib projection on the open, a target I was looking (hoping) for in yesterday's short setup :/

As I've mentioned; with 2c-2d I'm looking for 3d criteria on the faster time frame (15m in the charts below) which is what we saw this morning.  The weak open was pretty surprising to me and the price development throughout the day looks a lot like short covering, but looks like it can easily roll over.  The higher time frame (65m) has a slow line that's getting very close to zero, so anticipating this I would be looking for a 2c OR fast line pullback into the down sloping slow line on the 15m 3/10macd (which would read something like 2c to 2(or 4)d to 4c to 4d continuation as the diagram below depicts).

However, a slow line crossing zero often precedes the 20- & 50-MA's to cross.  This can only happen at the very least if price works inside the 20- & 50-MA window.  Otherwise, the Moving Averages have a strong bullish arrangement and will take a lot of bearish momentum to change that in the near term.  So,  we need to see price working at least under $151.75s.   Also keeping in mind that the SPY can correct 1.2% and we would only be at the 20-day Moving Average, something not tested yet this year.

Fri 01_11

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

SPY spent the day coiling...Going into Options Expiration next week will likely bring some volatility into the market.  Bonds (TLT) and SPY finished their day on the highs.

A lot of scratch trades today.  Should have been more assertive in the morning short trade setup based on the 5-min zig-zag corrective pattern.

Only thing that has changed on this higher time frame is the 65-min 3/10macd having a fast line less than the slow line.  But when you have to squint to even see the 3/10macd that's not entirely bearish (volatility has become very compressed).
The last up-arrow on the 15-min chart (below, right) would be a consideration entry for the higher time frame (65min) anticipation of the 3/10macd going from 1b-to-1a criteria (and what we would like to see is a proper breakout of the previous highs).

thu 01_10

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

The morning's trade can be seen in a previous post.

Higher time frame, keeps going higher.  The criteria setup has been 3a-to-1b-to-1a continuation.  A little concerting that the 65-min momentum is still so weak.

A few looks at the daily SPY

The channels in the SPY have been very tight and symmetrical.  Playing the channel extremes has been fruitful

Inverted roof (below).  Can break either way.  See Bulkowski's write-up here