GC

Gold targets met on higher time frame.
Monthly (below, left), weekly (below, right)
The initial entry on the weekly has hit a secondary objective, while taking the second entry resulted in 3R coinciding with the 50-period SMA and an overhead trend line.

The daily (below, right) has a fast line < slow line hinting at potential pullback/consolidation.  Though if the fast line turns back up abruptly we would likely see a continuation move.

GC

Gold posted another Daily entry yesterday.  This "trigger" would be a play on the higher time frame's (weekly) buy divergence/double-bottom.  It is still very sketchy being that the overall trend is strongly bearish.  1268 being the target objective, though 1252 may see resistance.

Gold

Monthly/weekly (below left, right) -  Has the potential for a sharp rally if this double-bottom holds.  Slight buy divergence on the weekly and longer term inverted head and shoulders pattern.

Daily - Would be preferable to see momentum on a (daily) fast line turn to positive.

should have

Re: a previous chart posted for Gold, I should have included 1384.70 as a small pivot (missed it by $0.60 yesterday).  1351.60 (to the penny) saw buying interest overnight.

gold

an update on Gold as per a twitter request.

Monthly; It's funny to hear people claiming Gold to be in a bear market if your time frame is based on this chart.  True the downside momentum was strong (and has potential to slow upside movement), but you can't really say that the "trend" is no longer bullish.  

  The $1000/oz level still looks like it would be decent support and one lower high in the grand scale of many higher lows is not necessarily bearish.  Under $800/oz would get me to change my tone on this time frame.  But let's face it, how many people use a monthly chart as their time frame?  (OK, I did use the monthly time frame, but only because I owned physical going back a ways, and I did lighten my holdings when the 1560s gave way).

  It's hard to say whether or not the "bottom is in" based on this chart, at this point in time, alone.  It would be nice to see price return back above the 50-period SMA on this chart and stabilize from the previous momentum.  $1389 area is the first supply pivot on this time frame and as of yet there is no structural low to cue off of

Weekly:  This is likely where the "Gold-is-in-a-bear-market" argument comes from.  The 20- & 50MA's have a bearish orientation and after swallowing so much momentum, price needs time to digest.  We got our first mean reverting move today in the form of price coming back into the 20-period SMA. 

$1390 appears to be the next pivot on this time frame, and it's interesting how symmetrical each regular/inverted cycle has been (currently in week 4 of this inverted cycle).  Also, at this point, I would add a support pivot below around 1313.50.

Daily; It's encouraging (for a bull) to see the 20- & 50-day MA crossing here and to have price above both, we haven't seen that since October of last year.  That could cue buyers to dabble in dip-buying behavior.  We have nearly filled a gap left from June 19th and cleared a reasonably significant supply pivot (1350).  Overhead we're approaching a price acceptance area and though the 1390 pivot is prevalent, the 1413-1425 pivot seem to stand out.

In the end, there's never any telling what price may do exactly.  All you can really do, in my opinion, is go from pivot to pivot (whether overhead or underneath) and watch how each one is tested (rejected or accepted) depending on your overall time-frame objective (are you interested in trading the monthly, weekly, or daily time frame?).  

So, for instance, using the daily chart above, the supply released into the market on June 20 (1350) was tested a month later and rejected (strong red candle).  Buyers then found value under $1300 to take us back above that previous 1350 pivot.  It's important we see follow-through as we move higher to test previous supply areas.  The next 'lower high' pivot to take on is 1413, followed by 1470s.  I suspect buyers may be timid given the higher time frame selling momentum that has taken place over the past few months, so it's baby-steps while taking cues from momentum when and where we get it.  Reclaiming 1560 could be a game changer in my opinion, but first we deal with the more immediate pivots.

If you have a more specific question let me know.

Gold lower

Not looking good for Gold.  I had hope for it a few weeks ago, but sell stops were unwound.
My premise a while ago was that it could be forming a cup w/ handle pattern, but since that posting, the handle (channel) broke down further.

The daily (above, right) looks a bit oversold at this point, so I can see a pullback higher to try and regain the weekly (above, left) lower channel.  If buyers are attracted then I can see a buy divergence on the weekly playing out, but the ball is obviously in the bear court.

Looking at the monthly (below, left) I can imagine that if 1529 gives then I think it can get messy.

Just for kicks, below is the weekly cycle count, since it has been consolidating for 77-weeks (I believe).  Previously, it spent 100-weeks in a bullish frenzy after a consolidative breakout.  So, it seems about right that it is consolidating as much as it has been in order to give symmetry to the previous bullish momentum.
The red line represents the price and time target based on the previous Inverted Cycle.  The fuchsia line is the cyclic trend line (CTL in the Stevenson PTT concept) which is the trendline needed to be broken in order to consider the current Regular Cycle ended and the next inverted cycle to begin.

Gold monthly

Curious to see how Gold develops going forward from this point.  Previous consolidation phases averaged about 18-months, currently the count for this month

The weekly seems very bullish if it can break out from this current channel (which would pull the 3/10macd fast line positive

Current price structure looks like a cup w/ handle pattern

AAPL

For 3 years beginning in 2009 AAPL trended within a buying channel, until price broke out in 2012 and started going somewhat parabolic.  Parabolic moves, where price goes too far too fast, tend to get back-filled, a test to gauge buying interest.  The ensuing correction initially found support at the upper channel but eventually broke through the other end and is now in a throwback to the lower channel line.

It would make sense to incorporate a higher time frame perspective with an equity that has been in a bull market really since 2004.  So, looking at a monthly (log) chart we can put the most recent corrective phase into perspective.

So, though AAPL is in a long-term bull market, it is also (still) in a corrective phase on a faster time frame, and a market can correct longer than most can remain solvent trying to catch the bottom.

Using multiple time frames:

Below is a monthly chart on the left paired with a weekly chart on the right.
 Monthly showing bullish trend still intact while the 3/10macd is showing 2c criteria.  With the slow line still very much positive we eventually anticipate the fast line to start ticking up (2d criteria).  Whether or not price will continue with its bullish trend is too soon to tell.
  The setup I like to look for with the 2c-2d criteria is the 3d criteria on the faster time frame.  So in this case we're looking for the weekly slow line to start turning up while both the fast and slow lines start progressing towards the zero-line (still at least a few weeks off)

Below is an example of the 2c-2d criteria back in 2008.  However, the weekly time frame never did set up the 3d criteria, rather we saw 3a criteria with very eager buyers (very little pullback).  Eventually price rolled over and it was in 2009 we saw the weekly 3d set up with a much more constructive bottoming process (3-push price pattern)

Back to the current environment.  We can expect the monthly 3/10macd fast line to start ticking Up when the faster time frame (weekly) begins to heal (where the fast and slow line start ticking up 3d, 3a criteria).
We can anticipate the healing of the weekly macd by looking at what the daily is doing.
Below, right is the daily, showing the obvious bear trend still intact (though many seem to be very anxious to call a bottom).  Price is pulling into the down-trending 20-MA (criteria 3a).  The slow line is still very negative and quite far from the zero line which means it will take either a decent amount of time or momentum to pull this slow line higher.  Even if we were to see strong momentum which would help pull the slow line closer to zero it would still be more prudent to wait for a higher low pullback.
(I threw in a modified pitchfork because it framed the daily price behavior pretty well.)

If I were looking to buy the anticipation of the weekly macd turning up, then I would be waiting for the daily 3/10macd to pull back THEN tick Up, ideally looking something like this:

To summarize:
   The higher time frame monthly is still bullish, but in a corrective phase.  It's 3/10macd fast line looks as though it may begin ticking up, but this is a monthly chart and a bullish continuation wouldn't be validated until we saw criteria 1a (or, more than likely 2a, the "a" is what is important, which is just saying that the fast line is back to positive) on this time frame, which would take a few MONTHS.
  We can anticipate this by looking to the weekly where we would like to see bullish development in the 3/10macd (i.e. more GREEN).  A slow line trending UP and eventually going positive and a fast line that goes, and remains, positive.  Judging by the looks of the current weekly 3/10macd this may take at least a few of weeks
  So, while the twittOsphere is a-buzz with those hunting for a bottom in AAPL the faster (daily) time frame still remains in a downward trending trajectory and (in my opinion) a buyable opportunity has yet to present itself.  Things may begin to heal once this Daily 3/10macd begins to  build a bullish bias, which will in turn improve the weekly 3/10 macd, which in turn will give us an idea if the monthly will remain in a bullish trend.

The only thing I can think of to compare it to would be the price structure of Gold, which has also been in a bull market for nearly 10-years now and shows similar 3/10macd characteristics (AAPL on the left, Gold on the right below)

Here is how the 2c-2d criteria on the monthly time frame set up on the weekly.  Currently things look they can go either way from here.  A breakout of the overhead trend line could end up turning the monthly 3/10macd fast line higher.  While a failure of support could bring momentum in to the downside and turn into a much larger correction.

Gold update

Decent move in Gold futures today.
The daily put in a 3rd push down a few days ago (on a momentum divergence and is trying to regain that trend line:

In the chart below, the daily is on the left, the weekly on the right.
A few things  on the weekly; A momentum divergence, price is still within a down trending channel and has regained the 50% retracement (May lows to Sept. highs).
A play on the weekly momentum divergence would be for the daily 3/10macd fast line to correct into the slow line and then turn green, which it seems about to do.  My biggest concern would be the slow line distance from the zero-line, so we want to see momentum pull that line higher.  If price can get through the overhead weekly channel trend line we may see that momentum carry-through.

Gold

I have been a Gold bull for many years.  But that bullishness is coming to a real test in the coming weeks and months.

First of all, the following is a monthly and weekly chart pairing for Gold.  So, the time perspective has to be considered (in other words, it will take some time to play out (though real "Get-Me-Out-of-My-Long-Positions" weakness tends to play out a lot faster than strength does).

The monthly chart was showing potential for the 2b criteria to be setting up (as the 3/10macd fast line pulls into a negatively sloping slow line that itself has potential to be pulled negative).  The basic gist is, it's a long-term  " XYZ "corrective wave.   The setup for that criteria is actually to catch the "Z" portion of the corrective wave, which could end near previous lows OR sell steeper into another support zone.  We can represent that in the following way where X1Y1Z1 reflect the longer term structure (which is what the 2b criteria highlights):

Alternatively, we could entertain the possibility that this is, rather, an  "ABC" Impulse wave, like so:

Since this has been in such a bullish trend, and for so long, the approach should typically be to "Buy Dips".  So, throughout this correction you are anticipating the higher time frame (monthly) 3/10 macd to turn back green on the fast line.  To anticipate that we look to enter on a bullish 3/10 macd orientation on the faster time frame (weekly), which is what we saw in late August (up-arrows reflecting potential long considerations) :

 After price achieved it's Fib. projected targets, price pulled back and looked to be going back to test the highs.  Everything was going swimmingly...until last week.

So, price fulfilled the targets for the bullish setup.
But in the longer term perspective, it made ANOTHER lower high, the third in the past year (not mentioning the 2 previous lower lows as well).  The aforementioned bullish scenario we were looking for (anticipating the monthly chart's 3/10 macd fast line to turn green indicating continued bullishness) should remain bullish (by the fast line continuing to tick UP positively).
A way of anticipating the ticking down of the fast line on the higher time frame (like it appears to be doing at this point) would be to look for an XYZ wave on the faster time frame, which is what seems to have triggered on the close of last week's bar.  The current "seed wave" (should it break point "X") has the following Fib. projection targets (highlighted).

So...the short trigger was set in motion ($1712.70).  The first barrier to lower prices would be the "X" point, roughly around $1675.00.  Just below this is the 50% retrace from May lows to October highs around $1668.40

IF prices get held up at this confluence between $1668-$1675 and get a decent bounce then there's a chance that the weekly chart's 3/10 macd fast line would tick back up (warning to your short positions that were based on the XYZ seed wave premise).  The fast line on that time frame would actually look like a little cup with handle pattern and a green turn could be an actionable long entry (as a way of anticipating the higher monthly time frame fast line ticking back up).
But for now the premise is short with targets at the Fib. projections 50% and 100% (1612 & 1549).

gold update

Gold had a strong breakout day today.
Looking to test $1800 yet again.

Looking at the higher time frame monthly with a weekly trigger chart, should the weekly 3/10macd fast line turns green we could consider that a buy signal for the higher time frame (ultimately we would then like to see the fast line cross the slow line on the weekly, rather than weakly roll over).

Gold

An update on Gold which is still basing under $1800.
The weekly (on the left) is currently in the 2c-2d criteria.  The 2c-2d setup puts us on alert to look for a 3d setup on the faster time frame, which is what we saw on the Daily chart (on the right) over the past week.

Interesting how both the weekly and daily charts show price holding a 50% retrace of their previous momentum moves.  We wouldn't want to see the daily give up much more traction going forward, otherwise we could see it go back into a corrective cycle.  But a break above the $1730's could generate a move back to test weekly resistance in the $1785 territory.

Gold

If for nothing else, I love the Gold market simply for the fact that it has two very diametric viewpoints to where price is going and the opinionated will defend those viewpoints with utmost venom.  With that said:

What if Gold has NOT topped out, but is merely in a corrective phase?  As the sayings go; a trend is more likely to continue than reverse, and, trend's end in a climax.  I would posit that we have seen trends end in a climax before (Crude Oil in the latter half of  '08 for example) where the selling is relentless and unforgiving,  and yet, Gold has been within a range for close to a year now, not very climactic if you ask me.

With an issue that has such a mature trend it makes sense to analyze it on a big picture time frame.  So, here we have a monthly chart of the Gold market:

The large corrective cycles in 2 previous periods has averaged 18-months.  So far we are in our 9th month since seeing the highs sold in September of 2011.  If this were the half-way point in a corrective cycle it would match perfectly with out average 18-month corrective cycle.

On a smaller time frame we can see how each of these corrective phases trace out a distinct pattern:

Looking a little closer at this year's price discovery we can see three instances (the most recent of which has been this past week) of buying tails at support, also known as three pushes to a low?

Basically what I'm trying to say is that the decade-long Gold trend, in my opinion,  has not yet "ended in a climax.  Rather, it appears to be in yet another corrective phase.  My premise would be proven wrong with bearish momentum that slices through various layers of support in the coming months.  If correct, that would mean we're roughly half way through a corrective phase that could lead price to a retest of previous highs. For now; It ain't over 'til it's over.

GLD

GLD is setting something up here.  As the SPY yesterday set up the potential for a First Cross Sell signal, the GLD is setting up a similar pattern (of course we're noticing the Head & Shoulders pattern forming, which you often get with a first cross entry).  Price stalled today at the 50% retracement level following the most recent selling momentum.  At this point we would be looking for a tick lower in the momentum histogram along with the slow line crossing negative:

omen?

The first 1,000-point range in the Dow since October of 2008. A sign of things to come?
Support was tested in a matter of minutes as the carry trade unwindsI wrote last night how the Euro looked desperate to test 1.25, who would have guessed that it would happen in less than 24-hours.Gold closed on it's highs today (using the ETF GLD) and looks ready to test an inverted roof pattern measured move. However, as the futures were closed when the panic occurred today, we'll have to see the reaction in the morning.Also, a key to watch will be how Treasuries react from here...using the ETF (TLT), over $100 has signaled panicked flight to safety in the past.Interesting, the likeness between the above chart and that of the VIX
The NYSE TICK hit a low of -1875 today (the lowest reading over the last 10-years, as far as I've seen). It certainly seemed fade-able, until the circuits broke 15-minutes later.

ZG Inverted...

Taking a look at Gold this morning and a pattern which seems to repeat in this commodity is the inverted roof, take a look;There's a striking similarity between the current pattern we find ourselves in and that from mid-2008 (the second Inverted Roof pattern highlighted on the above chart) where price broke out, only to result in a fake-out and rush to cover.
Similarities exist between Inverted Roof patterns and Inverted Head & Shoulder patterns, and it looks as though price has recently traced out an inverted H&S pattern, which could play out shortly (interesting that within the current inverted H&S there was also a little H&S pattern within).

LOL

Predictable, no?
If it wasn't for that mentally significant level of support below, this market looks rearin' for continuation. A First Cross sell signal being triggered across the board, on higher volume today:
Gold was down big today. With all the news of Dollar strength bringing down commodities, Gold just naturally seemed due for a pullback, and this chart (using GLD as a proxy) still looks fairly healthy.
and should it pull back further, $100 ($1000/ounce spot market), or even $96, could bring in renewed buying on a Resistance becomes Support bounce test.