EURUSD

With the Cyprus hoopla this weekend the EURUSD pair is still holding above it's 50% Fib. retrace on the weekly.  This weekly chart is also showing the 2c-2d criteria with a reverse divergence (higher price low, lower momentum low).  The 2c-2d criteria long entry would be a 3d-3a criteria on the faster (daily) time frame, which is close to ocurring.  My main concern is the distance the slow line (daily chart) is from zero, meaning it will take a lot of momentum to sustain a move out of this 2-month long pullback.

update

updated EURUSD from yesterday's post

EURUSD continues

I've been posting more on the EURUSD as this move has unfolded.
The weekly below (left) showing the inverse Head & Shoulders break where we'd be looking to 1.373 to achieve the 50% Fib. projection.  The trend on the daily showing bullish improvement, though be it a bit stretched.

A bit faster time frame, the trend is strongly bullish.  So you're looking to buy bullish orientation of the 3/10macd on the faster time frame.

EURUSD higher still

Previous EURUSD setup being the 2c-2d criteria showing a nice base break.  First trigger would have likely been a stop-out, but next two were decent

EURUSD

I didn't update the EURUSD this week b/c it barely moved.  It did end  up breaking out of it's most recent range.
Closed right around resistance for the week and doesn't have much in the way overhead until about 1.38

The 240m did get a small 3d setup on the 24th.  You can see on the faster time frame how a number of prior buying impulses kept fading.  It was a challenging week if you were playing within that tight range.

updated

EURUSD update from chart posted yesterday
Entry was tricky (aka choppy) but ended up breaking higher.  Need to see some stabilization in the pullback here otherwise we're looking at the higher time frame 3/10macd going 3b -3c-3d or something to that effect

further update:

double-top resistance

to watch

Worth keeping an eye on the EURUSD pair.  As mentioned in a previous post (here) we were waiting on the faster time frame to set up the 3d criteria with anticipation of the higher time frame having a move higher.  Would like to see a strong break of the overhead trendline (chart on the right)

EURUSD pullback

The EURUSD is pulling back from the most recent bullish momentum.  As it stands, the 240min is in criteria 2c (reverse divergence) and we're anticipating 2d leading to 3a (or 1a).  So, on the faster time frame I would be looking for the 3d criteria setup to occur.  Until then it has sold long holders to shake out.
Also worth noting where price bounced initially (38.2% retrace of most recent momentum).

EURUSD

Some points about the EURUSD:
Weekly;
  Lower lows & lower highs up until November where we had a  technical higher low and just  barely a higher high, but not higher than a more significant pivot (1.35).  Price weakened at resistance (on a bearish momentum divergence) after breaking through an overhead trend line and is now in a throwback process to that trendline.  A bearish tone on the weekly can change a bit with a move over 1.33, and become even more bullish with a move through 1.35.   Weakening may be seen with a breakdown of the underlying trendline which would also put it back under the overhead trendline.
We can also be prepared for the possibility of an inverse Head & Shoulders setting up, with the neckline (black line) taking place through the aforementioned resistance levels.  The September 2012 momentum seems to have been digested constructively over these past 4-months.

Daily time frame;
Perhaps a head & shoulders pattern.  Damage could be done under 1.30.  Would like to see the 3/10macd on this time frame at least turn green before getting more bullish (and we anticipate this turning green based on what the faster time frame is doing.  Most recent bearish momentum was a reverse divergence (lower momentum low on a higher price high)

Anticipating the daily chart turning more bullish I'd like to see the 240min 3/10macd fast line turn green, and you can anticipate that happening by looking into an even faster time frame (and looking for fast line pullbacks into the slow line and continuation).
Anticipating the daily chart turning more bearish I'd like to see the 240-min 3/10macd fast line tick down from here, and we could anticipate that happening by looking into the even faster time frame (and looking for a bearish cross of the fast and slow lines).

At this point I would rather wait to buy after a three-push pattern completes and/or a break above the overhead trendline.  I'd possibly look more bearish with the faster time frame having a fast line & slow line crossing with momentum taking out most recent lows (1.304's).

squeezy

EURUSD looks like a "squeezy" environment right now.  Where buyers can step in to ride price up to the upper channel, or it breaks down.  A directional break should influence the equities markets as well.

EUR update

An update on the EURUSD posted over the weekend:

EUR_USD

Will be telling in the coming week/s what happens with the EURUSD pair.  After a seemingly strong week, the Euro broke above 1.31 on strength (potential long considerations with up arrows) and through an overhead trend line, but there is some resistance to consider through to the 1.34's.  Most concerning is the weekly 3/10macd fast line remaining under the slow line, which can still cross positively but we have to wait and see follow-through momentum in the week ahead.  The trade was to position for a breakout of the 1.31 base (up-arrows), so chasing at this point isn't desirable, so it's a matter of seeing how strong momentum is going forward.

This chart in reverse gives us the U.S. Dollar Index.
The bearish potential here is that this week finally broke down from a bear flag, a large bear flag, which could measure to at least 76.  We can also see the potential for a decent Head & Shoulders pattern.
The one bullish premise can be considered in the form of the 3d criteria (highlighted region), where the 3/10macd fast line is correcting into a positively sloping slow line.  We see this criteria on both the weekly and daily 3/10 macd.  A trigger to the weekly 3/10 macd would be to see the daily fast line go green (positive) without much further negative momentum from this point.  The 3d criteria is often a short squeeze type of environment (and can often see an inverse head and shoulders or 3-pushes to a low type of price pattern), which we could see happening if strength follows a failed break down of this past week (and squeezing shorts out).  So, again, it's a matter of gauging continued EURUSD momentum in the week ahead.

Relentless

EURUSD - 

 

Weekly timeframe:  3 consecutive weeks of higher prices with strong momentum.  Previously (after the initial '08 volatility), we have had three 3-week blocks of higher closes, but with waning momentum..

Quite a difference from a trending market