Andrews Median Line

Interesting pitchfork confluence in some issues.
SPY sitting at upper median line

 XLF - been riding the lower median line for quite a while, now throwing back

 IWM - two failures to break UML

QQQ - on a strong trajectory

DIA - 3 successful bounces at lower median line

Here's an updated look at the SPY cycle count

Dow Jones Quarterly long term

pitchfork

IWM weekly right at the upper median line of this long-term pitchfork.  Pretty spectacular move.

pitchfork

A modified Schiff pitchfork on the SPY; price pulling back right to the mid-line.

Just getting back to the charts.  Here's an updated chart of the SPY weekly with Andrews median line showing interesting results:

symmetry, force, velocity

  Just an interesting observation of price symmetry.
  Looking at a SPY weekly chart going all the way back to the start of cheap credit and Über leverage.
- 266 weekly bars on the way Up, and half as many on the way Down, 133.
- Another 261 (roughly twice as many) weekly bars on the way back up to a double top (key technical "topping signal").  At this point we have a nearly perfect symmetrical cycle with a 2:1 up/down ratio; up, down, up to re-test, fail.
- The Double-top failure was 73 bars down, or roughly one-third the amount of time it took to test the highs.  
- Since then we have traveled 103 weeks up, or One & one-third the time to retrace higher. 
  

- So, in this case we had two symmetrical waves moving happily along until acted upon by a force (i.e. Double Top supply). Put another way, an object in motion tends to stay in motion until an outside force is applied.  So, we get an outside force (Double Top supply) at which time there is a reaction whose velocity is determined by its Force.  If the Force (F) is the 261 up bars and the (a)cceleration = 73 bars down and F=m*a or 261=m*73 then m=3.5, so the velocity changed at a rate of 3.5 times.  What does it all mean?  Who cares.  But it is what Andrews (from Babson) was analyzing through his use of Pitchforks.  The pitchfork (or Andrews Median Line) highlights the vector which price will move within once the force and acceleration (action/reaction) are measured.

Looking closer we can add one more pitchfork off of the March '09 lows:
('UML' = Upper Median Line, and 'Mid-Line' are from the longer-term chart above).  What I'm trying to point out is the confluence of the 3 separate pitchforks where price currently sits.

Anyway, adding some Fib. retracements in for good measure; the 78.6% has capped previous moves for these cycles.

While measuring the largest wave in the most recent move and projecting a Fib. extension off of it gives us the following:

As an aside, I'm not totally well versed in price projections, aside from what feels natural to me.  But measuring the 1, 3, & 5 waves off of the March '09 lows and projecting them off the beginning of our move higher starting back in Oct. '10, a confluence of resistance lies around the$140 & $143 levels.

updated pitchfork

SPY monthly with a confluence of two long-term paths:

Off of the '09 lows and up to the most pronounced swing high/low (price has failed to touch the mid-line, which Andrews theory would say makes price susceptible for a test of the lower trigger (white) line).

Keeping the purple longer term pitchfork and adding the intermediate yellow based off of the seed wave which this rally sprung from (also included is a sliding parallel)

Pitchfork voodoo

Starting with the SPY off of the March '09 lows and including the most dramatic swing high and low:

A little closer up with sliding parallel lines included:

Throw in the most recent seed wave which started the recent drifting rally.  The drift appears to be yawning ever so slightly:

A look at the Dollar index monthly chart:

Spanning the past 20-years, price has bounced twice from the Lower Median Line area but keeps working its way down.

one more pitchfork

Following up on yesterday's pitchfork post.

Approaching Pitchfork

Price is approaching a long-term Andrews pitchfork Upper Median line.

While scraping along the underside of this daily median line on an ever-obvious momentum divergence.

Median Line update

SPY; Floating along the lower half of the sliding parallel and just above the Lower Median Line.

DIA; flying on fumes

QQQQ:

IWM:

SMH is something else!

S&P weekly

Approaching two converging pitchfork lines overhead.  Having just cleared an upward sloping midline (red) with a down-sloping upper median line just overhead (green).

some pitchforks

GOOG....resistance at the midline

NFLX - most recent momentum impulse, didn't quite tag the midline

XLF - squeezed back inside and looks to be wearing out on this second test of a gap

AMZN - broke it's midline this morning

SPY - just can't seem to make it back to the sliding parallel line, try as it might

DIA - never tagged it's midline.  Is this a double top waiting to be resolved, or a pause before popping back up to the lower median line?  The key reversal day was telling everyone to take profits, but downside has been delayed so far.

two forks

SPY daily with pitchfork and sliding parallel lines

EURUSD had a pitchfork that challenged the warning line (teal), only to snap out of it and take off running.  Just tagged the midline before today's retrace, also included two sliding parallels that reacted well with price.

updates from the week ending 9/3

A couple of updated charts:
The IWM is back inside it's long-term pitchfork (though tired as it looks), as updated from this post
While the shorter-term pitchfork shows the SPY making a move toward it's mid-line, which happens to coincide with a 200-day MA (and a lower high incidentally).
The momentum buy divergence as mentioned in this post, while giving some heat, did work out. The stop loss order should have been below the entry bar's low anyway.The markets bounced with some momentum this week as we were looking for from this chart but it's all about the follow-through up to and/or over $113
and how about that Lehman gap, I mean come on!All-in-all we've been inside this range for quite some time, and could be here for more time to come. We could even look at price as if it were an unbounded oscillator, with the overbought/oversold levels shown by the red and green horizontal lines respectively (and keeping in mind that a market can remain overbought, or oversold, for long stretches of time as it did in March-April).