Dollar

The U.S. Dollar Index broke out of a resistance point this week.  I pointed out in a previous post about the Daily setting up a 3d criteria, after which time price rolled over but found support at $79.

The weekly chart (below) is interesting.  After the previous few months of selling pressure price managed to hold a higher low while momentum registered quite a strong negative reading.  This sort of reverse divergence can sometimes lead to a "slingshot" in price.

I'm still liking this Quarterly chart of the U.S. Dollar Index, as I'm in the camp that this could be a very long-term falling wedge.

Working with the above Quarterly chart I'll add a cloned trendline to give some perspective of how price has worked mostly within this channel for the majority of its life cycle

Finally, I'd like to add the 3/10macd to this quarterly chart to highlight the 3d criteria setting up on this chart while price is showing an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern.

Should be interesting going forward.

thurs. 2/16

Just a few chart examples of setups and/or things I look for.
Coming into the open this morning the SPY was setting up the 3d criteria.  As mentioned before, it pays to check a chart with pre-market data for anything which may pop out.  The black dash line represents the Open while the up-arrows are potential long entries (one of which wasn't so good, but the rest more than made up for it).

After the open price briefly tested the previous day's lows and look how the Advance/Decline line bounced off of zero and we trended higher for the rest of the day.  Also worth taking note of, the low TICK of the day occurring at 3:15 was the perfect entry for a move into the close (it usually is on trending days).

Take a look at the longer term trend in the ES.  The overnight and previous day's momentum was the lowest since December 28th and yet we put in a higher low compared with February 10th (Slingshot setup)

I have posted this chart before and I'm doing so again because I find it to be uncanny how the past is repeating itself in this market
Here is the SPY in 2010

and now

UCO

Unfortunately this is a "hard to borrow" issue on the short side, but it's the only thing I've found that closely reflects the movement of Crude Oil.  When a trend is strong (for my purposes the 15-minute chart with 20- & 50-MA's indicate trend direction and strength), and the trend in Crude has been bullish all week, you'll see these momentum sell-offs into support that are good buying opportunities. The momentum indicator sets up a reverse divergence ("Sling Buy") where there is a lower low in momentum and a higher low in price. The 5-minute chart demonstrates three pushes to a low forming an inverted Head & Shoulders. First target was the 100% projection which coincided with the price breakdown point. Position closed on price failing to hold the Open on waning momentum near the end of day.

A trade in GLD today that helped me get flat on the day after a perfectly retarded long trade in CVX
Something to look for with a strong trend in place (as was the case with GLD intraday) is known as a Slingshot setup, basically a reverse divergence (higher low in price with a lower momentum low).

SLV

The trend is up.
15-min chart the momentum push was the lowest reading in over a week while the swing low was higher than the previous day (just above the PDH).  It's a reverse divergence, but I believe LBR coined in a "Sling Buy" setup.  The 15-min hammer candle doesn't get any prettier.  While the 5-min trigger could have been a 3/10 macd Fast Line/Slow Line crossover, but a better entry was following the consolidation off the bottom as price formed the seed wave.
Half target was the 50% entension of the seed wave which coincided with the breakdown point of the selloff.
100% and 200% extensions of the seed wave were both met the next day.