AIG bounce

AIG pulled back from a precipice today:Check out my previous post on AIG for some interesting charts regarding the underlying support pivot.
Currently we're basing at this $29.50 61.8% retracement level.
Waiting to see how strong the bounce is off of $29.50 today. The previous bounce wasn't as strong as those previous.

Fib Levels

SPY broke down in a dramatic way late in the day (finally).
It came to rest right in the 78.6% retracement level, as measured from the close on 11/30 (61.8% if measured from the swing low of that day).
I traded AIG short this afternoon as it broke down from it's $30.50 base.
I'm still looking for a climactic move down in this name to test recent lows. Next level of support is the $29 level as mentioned in a previous post.

Tuesday grind

Got a little bounce today, but much the same drift after the initial move on this OPEX week. The SPY retraced 50% from the close on Friday to yesterday's low on low volume.
Price is just basing at previous support:We worked our way back to the Previous day's high this morning, based along that resistance and my pivot resistance level (red horizontal line) while our 5-min candles began closing at higher prices before breaking out. The rest of the day just drifted sideways on waning momentum.and while TICK and momentum were testing lower levels, the ship just wasn't sinking.
Tricky tape here and you just have to wait for the market to tip it's hand.

RIMM printed an abandoned baby candlestick pattern today, so I'll be watching for upside follow-through.
Also, watching XL for more upside, though the volume isn't very spectacular

testing

We made an attempt at testing previous highs, only to be sold. The good thing is, however, that we're building value at these higher levels, so that we can break out to the upside with conviction/follow-through; when/if this happens is another matter. I can see a test down from here to see if we can put in a higher swing low:This morning's gap-down was quickly bought, and the strategy I mentioned a while back for buying a return to the previous close was in play for a scalp. I've been forgetting to mention this technique, but that's not to say I have scrapped the setup.
These aren't hard and fast rules of course, like waiting for price to get to the exact PDC price. It depends entirely on the way things are moving, if there's a better opportunity to get in while suspecting a play off of this scalping technique than that's what you base your entry on, take this morning for instance; On the 1-min chart the nr7 bar (purple doji) at the end of the tight consolidation flag was a much better risk/reward entry, suspecting a quick move to (and off of) the PDC. As price flagged again at the $95.75 range you can see TICK getting weaker and the lowest close of that range was followed by a sell-off.Something else I wanted to mention was incorporating Buy/Sell Envelopes on some of my charts (select issues I watch with frequency). They're very similar to pivot points, and they're adapted from the Taylor Trading Technique.
This day's Support on the SPY was $94.83; not bad, our LOD was $0.06 higher. Meanwhile, the Resistance for today was $96.13, the exact penny for our HOD. Here's the 5-min SPY, with the Buy & Sell envelope are highlighted in the bright blue horizontal lines (the other three horizontals represent Pivot, R1, & S1).On the chart above, notice the "Slingshot" setup. Price put in a higher low, while the momentum indicator put in a lower low, giving you a buying opportunity that has three criteria; Pivot Support, a Slingshot setup, and a bullish engulfing candle closing right on top of the 20-EMA.

Finally, there was FCX this morning. Price based around the PDC for most of the morning. Towards the break of the base we had 4 narrow range candles, 3 of which were nr7's. I'm keeping a spreadsheet for FCX as well, using this Taylor Trading Technique I mentioned above. The Buy/Sell Envelope for today on FCX are highlighted on the chart below with green and red horizontal lines. Price came withing $0.03 of our resistance level! If there's any desire to know these Buy/Sell Envelope levels, let me know. For now, I'm keeping track of SPY, RIMM, FCX, POT, and XLE.

nice moves

Buyers stepped in on the infamous Head & Shoulders neckline. We got nice setups all day long for an opportunity to buy and hold through the end of the day (though I feel I should have held a small position overnight). We got a nice flag to get into right at R1, another flag 7 bars later, followed by two narrow range consolidations that ended up pushing higher, right up to R3 to end the day.Back to buying the dips mode? Sure feels that way.Strong technical stand on the daily chart, so we're back in channel mode to see if we can test the highs. It would have been nice to get a breakdown just to give us a solid directionThe market profile gave us suspicion that today may be a strong directional move. We did get resistance that coincided with single prints from July 6th & 7th.Caught a move late in the day on an FCX base-break. Will watch for a gap-fill from July 6th over the next few days.

RIMM base break

After a big opening this morning, RIMM retraced a bit more than it's opening range before returning to a pre-established base. The base broke out at the $70.40 highs. The target of $71 was a resistance level of a previous consolidation range.

TLT base

TLT formed a base throughout the day yesterday, gapped up slightly today into that same base and consolidated in a narrow range. Exited on the 3rd push higher, but missed the final push above $93.60. Notice how volume tells the story. I have yellow and blue plots representing volume breakouts (yellow=strong, blue=Really strong). Notice how you get really strong volume come in right around the 20EMA (buying the pullback) and then a lot more volume that comprises the top of the move (profit taking volume).

shooting fish in a barrel

There come times in the market when things line up in such a way that taking a position is like shooting fish in a barrel. It's a confluence of factors where, in this case, many positions take profits off the table after the markets confirm a correction is in the works. In such an event, as the markets begin to set up for a breakdown you hop on to your favorite issues (the same one's you've been watching/playing on the way up, as these you should be most familiar with levels of previous support/resistance) and ride them for all their worth.
Going into today, I thought we might have some upside follow-through in the dollar, while also looking to short TLT (actually I was looking to go long TBT), but I was wrong on both counts. Not only did the markets trade in the same direction as the dollar, but Treasury yields also came down. TLT to the upside was in play after the 90-min mark (base and break).As the markets came out of their range we had some extended downside, and the profit-taking ensued. My go-to issue? FCX.
FCX became a nice short at the lows of the day, target of $52.75 based on previous S/R
SPY showed intra-day support that lined up with the previous day's close (PDC). Once we came back to that level strategy dictates looking for a scalp short (target being a test of the previous day's low). A little flag set up in the $92.60 range ($0.20 below entry) so holding the scalp short was certainly a consideration.When all was said and done, we have essentially exchanged one range for another, and find ourselves slightly above previous resistance.Will the SPY narrowly avoid the Golden Cross?

thurs. 05_14

Messy and confusing behavior should be expected during OpEx week, but there are still trade-able moves.
The move down in SPY from the highs have consolidated most of the afternoon yesterday and the beginning of the morning today, giving us a somewhat rounding pattern:
The 5-min chart displays things a bit clearer, where we have a sideways consolidation. Price spent most of the time below the mid-range of this channel yesterday, whereas this morning that range was tested, though very briefly. Things look kinda weak for now. It looked as though we would get a healthy close and get a 20- & 50-EMA crossover back to bullish orientation, but things weakened late in the day after testing the lows from Tuesday.The SPY was choppy, but if you look around for strength there's bound to be something that stands out. Take MOS for instance; if you missed the initial move AND the break to long-term resistance (see the Daily chart posted in my previous post), you could still have stalked the Base& Break setup for a run higher. Keep in mind, long-term resistance areas can get awfully choppy, being that it's a likely place for all sorts of stop-loss and buy orders, short entries, etc., being triggered. Well, the week is nearly done and the SPY so far has painted a inside bar/harami candle pattern. Provided we don't rally 3% this is what we'll be left with. Speaking of a harami candle pattern, AAPL looks to have had a healthy pullback and finished today with an inside harami candle pattern, looking for confirmation through a close above the past two days, coinciding with a recovery of the 20-EMA.

FAZ B&B

Took a Base & Break setup in FAZWith a target of the previous resistance levelWatch to see if it bases around this resistance level for further upside.

pennant trades

Took two trades so far this morning based on straightforward patterns. Both pennant setups, both of which I'm not longer in, and both of which are still running!
POT I've been watching due to the base it's been building over the past week. Here's the 30-minThe 5-min gapped up on the open and there was a nice consolidation that didn't give up any of the gap and a break of that base would have been the best entry, but I wasn't watching it at the time. However, it set up again in a pennant pattern where it broke out again (notice also there was a "First Cross" entry at the base break! the green dot plotted below the macd). I was out of the trade at the top extension out of the pennant. It was a really nice setup that later demonstrated the Resistance-becomes-Support before running further.It will be curious to see how it reacts at the top of this channel on the Daily
Next was MOS; it's been in a consolidating channel over the past few days while most recently coiling within a triangle, of which it broke out today.I missed the wide range impulse bar, but entered on the consolidation within the pennant (again, there were two nice "First Cross" entries, the green dots at the bottom of the macd).The daily chart looks interesting, I should have held a little piece of this one. As we've just seen how pennant breakouts can turn out.