Crappy trades
Got short FCX before getting long. Short entry was just above $118 and change, while the long entry was around $118 even. My long target was the Open, but I got stopped out prematurely.
The 50% Fib. retracement of the latest impulse move held as resistance this morning.
Price has been riding the 20-day MA and still showing a bear flag.
The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at toddstrade@gmail.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.
Showing posts with label 50%. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 50%. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
doji day
While price bounces within a 1% range
Price gaped up about 0.5% and sold off nearly to the 50% retracement as measured from the PDC to the day's Open. After finding support price then extended to a 50% extension of this measurement
This extension also corresponded with a 50% extension of the previous day's range (measured off the PDL to PDH)
Practically no bearish TICK bias until later in the afternoon (ignore the first trendline indicating a divergence, as it is not)
Sailing away we are
Price gaped up about 0.5% and sold off nearly to the 50% retracement as measured from the PDC to the day's Open. After finding support price then extended to a 50% extension of this measurement
This extension also corresponded with a 50% extension of the previous day's range (measured off the PDL to PDH)
Practically no bearish TICK bias until later in the afternoon (ignore the first trendline indicating a divergence, as it is not)
Sailing away we are
Monday, January 10, 2011
Monday hindsight
The low-volume drift continues
In the early morning, price on the SPY double-bottomed at the previous day's low on a momentum divergence (a regular divergence intraday and a reverse divergence compared to the PDL).
Initial resistance was met at the 50% fibonacci retracement as measured from the PDC to today's Open
Nothing too significant regarding the NYSE TICK. A small divergence at the lows and you can make the argument for a reverse divergence later in the day.
In the early morning, price on the SPY double-bottomed at the previous day's low on a momentum divergence (a regular divergence intraday and a reverse divergence compared to the PDL).
Initial resistance was met at the 50% fibonacci retracement as measured from the PDC to today's Open
Nothing too significant regarding the NYSE TICK. A small divergence at the lows and you can make the argument for a reverse divergence later in the day.
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Intraday Fib.s
I've put together a brief Google Document on using intraday Fibonacci retracements, with a focus on the 50% level. Though it is brief, I'm expecting to add to it as time goes by, with more reference charts and notes. The document is "private" but if you would like access just click on the linked image below and put in a request to view it and I'll open it up on an individual basis.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Friday's Fibs
Wednesday's session of the SPY showed a real body 2x greater than the previous day (2x-bar, indicated on the chart below by the teal paint-bar). With that in mind, we look for the midpoint of that previous bar to act as a support or resistance level.
The High/Low of Wednesday worked out to be very close to the Open/Close prices. So whether you used the High/Low or Open/Close for your Fib. measurements the difference was marginal (3-cent difference).
The price gap down on Friday was very close to the previous day's Low and Open. It also closely corresponded to the 50% level as measured off of Tuesday's Low and Wednesday's High:
With such a wide gap down (momentum) we can draw Fib. lines based off of the previous day's Close to Friday's Open. In this case, our 50% mark was at nearly the same area as our 2x-bar midline and our previous day's High/Low 50% range, but what ultimately capped off the gap-fill attempt was the 61.8% retracement level:
If we consider the gap down Open as our initial momentum impulse we can look for price to make a measured move of this initial impulse. In this case, Friday hit the 50% extension to the penny.
The High/Low of Wednesday worked out to be very close to the Open/Close prices. So whether you used the High/Low or Open/Close for your Fib. measurements the difference was marginal (3-cent difference).
The price gap down on Friday was very close to the previous day's Low and Open. It also closely corresponded to the 50% level as measured off of Tuesday's Low and Wednesday's High:
With such a wide gap down (momentum) we can draw Fib. lines based off of the previous day's Close to Friday's Open. In this case, our 50% mark was at nearly the same area as our 2x-bar midline and our previous day's High/Low 50% range, but what ultimately capped off the gap-fill attempt was the 61.8% retracement level:
If we consider the gap down Open as our initial momentum impulse we can look for price to make a measured move of this initial impulse. In this case, Friday hit the 50% extension to the penny.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
pre holiday
SPY opened right on top of a 50% retracement today, as measured from Monday's high to yesterday's low. I've included the pre-market in this chart below to illustrate how price used this midpoint as a pivot prior to the open. Also included is a set of Fibs measured off of the PDH to PDL (yellow 50% line), also giving the pre-market a nice S/R pivot to work off of:
While on the Open, using a set of Fibs to measure the PDC to today's Open, price quickly achieved a 100% extension off of today's momentum gap:
While on the Open, using a set of Fibs to measure the PDC to today's Open, price quickly achieved a 100% extension off of today's momentum gap:
Thursday, November 18, 2010
SPY top down
Starting with the Yearly chart, Price is in the upper 25% of it's recorded range:
Yearly:
and above the midpoint of the 2008 bar, yet resisting the 61.8% for now:
With the month coming to a close it should be important to see if this November bar will close above or below the May corrective bar as the $122 (61.8% retracement) price continues to be rejected:
Monthly
As the 2bTop still has potential, a close below $119 by month's end could bring a correction (A close below $119 may be difficult with tomorrow being OpEx). There is a confluence of support below at around $112, it is the monthly 50% Fib level and the weekly 50% retracement level following this most recent advance.
Weekly:
And now the Daily. Price was rejected on the first test of a 50% retracement following the most recent impulse down:
Daily:
Yearly:
and above the midpoint of the 2008 bar, yet resisting the 61.8% for now:
With the month coming to a close it should be important to see if this November bar will close above or below the May corrective bar as the $122 (61.8% retracement) price continues to be rejected:
Monthly
As the 2bTop still has potential, a close below $119 by month's end could bring a correction (A close below $119 may be difficult with tomorrow being OpEx). There is a confluence of support below at around $112, it is the monthly 50% Fib level and the weekly 50% retracement level following this most recent advance.
Weekly:
And now the Daily. Price was rejected on the first test of a 50% retracement following the most recent impulse down:
Daily:
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