The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at toddstrade@gmail.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.


Showing posts with label long-term resistance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label long-term resistance. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

2b reversal

Large volume today on a trend day down. A few things of note about today:
Today registered the lowest Up-Down Volume Differential since March of 2009 (before the technical bottom).We also registered, the highest TRIN reading since Dec. 2009 as well as the lowest TICK reading since Feb. 05, 2010 (the bottom of the previous correction).
All signs pointing to an extended correction?
I have had this 60-min SPY chart up a couple of times, showing the range we've been in since February in an Andrews pitchfork. Today we finally sliced through the lower median line and price actually bounce at the 50% and 75% warning lines (the white dash lines extending below the solid yellow Lower Median Line).
Today was a 2b reversal day after price failed from it's new highsAlso of note was where we corrected on a broader perspective. Take a look at the SPY weekly chart and how Support & Resistance interchange as a pivot. I also couldn't help but throw in an Andrews pitchfork for good measure, of which we (so far) just fell short of the mid-line).Take a look at where the highs on the Q's currently stand

Friday, April 16, 2010

Looking for Support

...or is it resistance?
Looking for support in a strong momentum move can be pretty straightforward (so long as support holds ;). What we had to go on in today's SPY sell-off were prior consolidation ranges, between $117.50-$119 (Resistance-becomes-Support). After having potential targets in mind, it becomes a matter of watching for selling exhaustion (TICK divergences and higher lows within your target boundary).Here's a look at the SPY daily price congestion rangesHere's a look at the volume profiles, showing the primary congestion range
What's really interesting is the following monthly chart of the SPY. The $119-$120 level (where we found support today) coincides with a mid-point of the S&P500 going back 12 years. Also interesting is how the above chart looks a lot like the one below...so, is the current phase finished, or only half-finished? :)


The QQQQ closed the week just under the $50 mark:One further observation;
The Dow closed just barely above the 11,000 mark. Take note of how long price has previously bounced between the 10,000 and 11,000 levels before:

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

The battle rages

I've posted this chart a number of times;The Q's have been testing these July '08 highs for the past 3 weeks now. Two weeks ago they were extended tests that were quickly (and with reasonably large volume) rejected. Last week, price nudged a little higher and swiftly sold off, all the way back down to the $47.80 support level (even put in a higher low). This week, however, price has turned that resistance pivot into support. Price attempted a breakout yesterday only to turn into a reversal. Today, as price tested yesterday's highs selling again ensued, only this time price turned around at the previous day's low (Resistance becomes Support). Worth noting is the large volume surge that came into this rejection. It appears there was even greater volume keeping price above $48.40 (prior resistance last week) than there was bringing price down to that level. As an aside, the Q's are only 11.7% off of their 2007 highs!