IWM

Hit a 3x target from the higher time frame trigger on Friday

Thu. 04_18

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Divergences in breadth today; S&P500 Advancing/Declining on the left, Up/Down Volume on the right

First hour's trade (Initial Balance)

With volume profile

Daily showing 2c-2d criteria (looking for the 65min chart fast line to go green for a long signal).  So long as the March gap holds we can perceive the daily 3/10macd to be a reverse divergence (still not actionable until the 65min fast line goes positive).

ES with globex.  Two 3/10 macd's to reflect two time frames in one (top indicator being the 15-min 3/10macd)

Mon 04_15

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Volume profile going forward (note: price levels indicated are NOT precise, most data feeds may reflect discrepancies).

Interesting development here in the IWM.  Weekly showing bullish trend with 2c 3/10macd criteria.  Looking for a 3d-3a criteria on the daily before entertaining longs on that time frame.  Would be healthy on the higher time frame to fullfill the daily H&S pattern

Fri 04_12

Last trade of the day is missing a down arrow for a secondary exit which was taken in the last 5-min bar.  There is also a short in here that's not marked around the 13:20 hour.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Opening Swing and first hour's trade - 50% level reflected from the pre-market range

ES with globex - looks like an ascending triangle into the close, which can go either way, but whichever way it breaks you trade in that direction.

Volume profile - price finding support at a previous (2-days ago) Low Volume Node

Breadth - fairly bearish all day.  

SPY Cycle update - there is still potential for this to be the midpoint of a measured move higher

which way

Looking at the higher timeframe SPY, the daily really can go either way.  The fast line on the 3/10macd can tick up (which would read as continuation on the price chart, or it can tick down and signal further continuation.  When viewing the 65m chart with it (on the right) the fast line on this 3/10 macd can either form an XYZ corrective wave (which would read as 4d-4c) or cross the slow line and turn into 3a (further test higher).  Not much of a clue.

Looking at a slightly faster time frame than the daily, the 130min (3-bars per day) is showing the 2c-2d criteria (not necessarily bearish). While pairing it with the 30min we would be looking for a 3d-3a criteria to trigger a long.

Mon 3_25

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Didn't get in on the short festivities, but here's a look at the SPY which includes pre-market, the subgraph top indicator reflects the 15-min 3/10macd while the bottom one is the 5-min 3/10macd.  Dash line is the open of RTH.

Had a resting order at the .35 mark as it was the 20-daySMA and previous week's Open.  Didn't get filled.

curious to see which way we go from here.  There's obviously some strong overhead resistance and we've had 3 successive higher highs and 3 successive higher lows.  Could be perceived as a bear flag at this point.  Going into the shortened week, end of month, end of quarter I wouldn't be surprised to see anything.

Tue. 03_19

today's trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Still considering this a 2c-2d criteria pullback on the higher (daily) time frame.  As such I would be looking to buy a 3d on the faster time frame (65min), or some pullback combination like 3a-3b-1a.

Mon. 02_25

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Not very subtle. Bears owned the day.

Volume was huge, range was huge, $147 seems like a logical place to find some support for now.

Fri. 01_18

today's trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Blue arrows are entries, black are exits.  "X" indicative of a trade considered but not taken.

Higher time frame showing 2c-2d

Finally, the weekly.  Points worth considering:

-Corrections have become shallower since 2012.  

- Breakouts from previous highs have seen diminishing returns

- As old highs (or in this case, all-time highs) are approached it is common for positions to be thinned.  Pros don't want to buy at the highs or as price breaks out, they would prefer to buy a re-test of the breakout point.

I still believe this is an important divergence to keep in mind.  The QQQ weekly head and shoulders.  Invalidated above $67.50-$68 and the neckline coming in around $62.  If this were to break down, a measured move would be around $53 (which would still maintain the higher low structure).

GLD

GLD hit it's primary target this morning after breaking down from the bear flag:

Wed. 12_05

Today's trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Stepped away in the late morning, so I didn't trade after the short position in the morning.  Long "triggers" were late, so using that process that I emphasize throughout this blog would have been challenging.  Trading the squeeze was all about reading the price behavior today.

Higher time frame;
     Anticipating the daily 3/10 macd fast line ticking up we would be looking for the faster time frame (65min) 3/10 macd fast line to pull into the slow line and tick up.  Otherwise, the reverse could set up a steeper correction short opportunity.

The QQQ higher time frame has set up a little cleaner in regards to the recent "pullback"
The initial entry would have been the close on Monday.  Tuesday formed a tight flag and this morning reached the 50% projection.

  The second down arrow on the 3/10 macd indicates the 4d-4c criteria short setup (often seen as a bear flag), to "anticipate" this we could have factored in another (faster) time frame to be paired with the 65min, like in the chart below:

So while the 65-min was used to anticipate the pullback in the daily chart, the 20-minute chart was used to anticipate the bear flag breakdown entry on the 65-minute chart.  Had you built the position and had an original entry ($65.71) as indicated on the first 65min chart above, we could have considered adding to that position after the trigger on the 20-min chart, giving us an average price of $65.51 with a primary target (50% Fib. projection of bear flag) of $64.63.

As an aside, it's worth watching this ascending triangle on the XLF

Fri. 11_2

Considering we had a shortened trading week and it is the week prior to elections, it was essentially an undecided (chop) week in the equity indices; weekly high-wave or long-legged dojis.
The SPY is still in a corrective (and quite symmetrical) cycle process.

At any rate, here is the SPY for today

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:   

The 15m & 5m with 3/10 macd below.  I didn't take the short trigger indicated with the first down arrow.  I did take most of the triggers in the "Chop" zone (highlighted), but only for a loss of about half of an ES point.  I didn't take the 12:20 down arrow as I was already short at the 12:05 bar.