78.6%

78.6% retrace so far in SPY on a reverse divergence

choppy

Crappy trades
Got short FCX before getting long.  Short entry was just above $118 and change, while the long entry was around $118 even.  My long target was the Open, but I got stopped out prematurely.

The 50% Fib. retracement of the latest impulse move held as resistance this morning.

Price has been riding the 20-day MA and still showing a bear flag.

inside day

Following a momentum gap up yesterday, price consolidated for most of the day within the previous range.
Two support levels throughout the day included initially the 38.2% retracement (measured off of Tuesday's close to include the momentum gap, up to yesterday's momentum high), followed by the 50% retracement.

A trade setup which I did not take follows.  I didn't take it b/c the risk/reward seemed lacking, nonetheless it was reasonably valid.
Price found support at the previous day's Open which coincided with a 61.8% retracement measured off of the previous day's High/Low range.  Afterward, price formed a seed wave where you could have bought the break ($128.39) with a target of a 50% or 100% extension (which coincided with the Open and PDC) as indicated:

doji day

While price bounces within a 1% range

Price gaped up about 0.5% and sold off nearly to the 50% retracement as measured from the PDC to the day's Open.  After finding support price then extended to a 50% extension of this measurement

This extension also corresponded with a 50% extension of the previous day's range (measured off the PDL to PDH)

Practically no bearish TICK bias until later in the afternoon (ignore the first trendline indicating a divergence, as it is not)

Sailing away we are

Catching Up

After spending way too much time in New Jersey for the holiday's I'm now back and left having to reconfigure workspaces and watchlists lately after losing most of it to a recent system upgrade.  But it feels good getting back into the swing of things.
The markets are regaining some vigor now that we're starting a new year.  Compared to the micro-range drift we were experiencing for most of December. Yesterday stopped a lot of shorts out, while today faked a lot of longs out.  You  have to shake out the rug before deciding where it will go:
Yesterday being a bullish bar, long's were eager to trade a breakout, resulting in a mild sell-off early on when that breakout failed.  Price found support around the 50% retracement measured off of the previous day's High to Low:

A few TICK divergences:

turn your head and cough

Shorts squeezed again!  lol
Right back into our pitchfork, safe and sound

Price opened just under the 20-day MA, which coincided with the 50% retracement of our most recent swing highs/lows.  A strong breakout candle, a close above the 61.8% retracement and a W-bottom pattern breakout set up today.

Price gaped up big today and didn't go any further than a 50% extension based off the Previous day's Close to today's Open.  This also coincided with a 150% extension as measured off of the previous day's range (low to high):

Being that the year is in it's last month, take a look and see where we are on the grand scale.  The S&P500 yearly chart puts us right under a confluence of resistance; the 23.6% level from the 1960 lows to the 2007 Highs and a 61.8% level from the '07 Highs to '09 Lows

However...The more times price tests Resistance...

amazing how well that 50% level was our S/R zone

measure momentum for targets

  The general idea behind the Fibonacci price retracement tool is to measure momentum and segment it into proportions or ratios.  So if we have a momentum, consolidation, continuation pattern what we're looking for is a proportionate continuation.   If we have momentum and are looking for a measured move after consolidation we would look for AT LEAST half of the original momentum move for our first target.  Speed of achieving our 50% target and rejection or acceptance of this move can help gauge an expectation of a further extension, where we then look for a 1:1 target or 100% extension, or a "measured move".

So, with that said, here are some examples of the above explanation which took place today.

 The SPY triangulated for most of the day before breaking out

When price finally did break out you can measure the initial momentum (in this case I used the breakout bar) to get extensions beyond this price range:

In the above chart the 50% and 100% were achieved quickly, while the 150% extension took a steeper retracement before extending further.

Here's another example using a trade I actually took today in CREE.  The Fib.s were based on the momentum prior to a basing consolidation pattern, with the expectation of a measured move beyond $64.20.  The two blue arrows were exits taken, but I set them slightly under the actual price target.

Taking half off at 50% could at least increase the probability that we'll get filled on something, just in case our Fib. measurements were off ;)

Intraday Fib.s

I've put together a brief Google Document on using intraday Fibonacci retracements, with a focus on the 50% level.   Though it is brief, I'm expecting to add to it as time goes by, with more reference charts and notes.  The document is "private" but if you would like access just click on the linked image below and put in a request to view it and I'll open it up on an individual basis.

Friday's Fibs

Wednesday's session of the SPY showed a real body 2x greater than the previous day (2x-bar, indicated on the chart below by the teal paint-bar).  With that in mind, we look for the midpoint of that previous bar to act as a support or resistance level.

The High/Low of Wednesday worked out to be very close to the Open/Close prices.  So whether you used the High/Low or Open/Close for your Fib. measurements the difference was marginal (3-cent difference).

The price gap down on Friday was very close to the previous day's Low and Open.  It also closely corresponded to the 50% level as measured off of Tuesday's Low and Wednesday's High:

  With such a wide gap down (momentum) we can draw Fib. lines based off of the previous day's Close to Friday's Open.  In this case, our 50% mark was at nearly the same area as our 2x-bar midline and our previous day's High/Low 50% range, but what ultimately capped off the gap-fill attempt was the 61.8% retracement level:

If we consider the gap down Open as our initial momentum impulse we can look for price to make a measured move of this initial impulse.  In this case, Friday hit the 50% extension to the penny.

pre holiday

SPY opened right on top of a 50% retracement today, as measured from Monday's high to yesterday's low.  I've included the pre-market in this chart below to illustrate how price used this midpoint as a pivot prior to the open.  Also included is a set of Fibs measured off of the PDH to PDL (yellow 50% line), also giving the pre-market a nice S/R pivot to work off of:

While on the Open, using a set of Fibs to measure the PDC to today's Open, price quickly achieved a 100% extension off of today's momentum gap:

SPY top down

Starting with the Yearly chart, Price is in the upper 25% of it's recorded range:
Yearly:

and above the midpoint of the 2008 bar, yet resisting the 61.8% for now:

With the month coming to a close it should be important to see if this November bar will close above or below the May corrective bar as the $122 (61.8% retracement) price continues to be rejected:
Monthly

As the 2bTop still has potential, a close below $119 by month's end could bring a correction (A close below $119 may be difficult with tomorrow being OpEx).  There is a confluence of support below at around $112, it is the monthly 50% Fib level and the weekly 50% retracement level following this most recent advance.
Weekly:

And now the Daily.  Price was rejected on the first test of a 50% retracement following the most recent impulse down:
Daily:

squeeze gap

Recent downside momentum in the markets was broken today with a wide gap up, triggering stops overhead.  Where did price resort back to?

SPY returned to the 50% retracement as measured High to Low (11/9-11/16), closing right above the 20-day

While the gap up (from the PDC to today's Open) couldn't quite extend to the 100% mark (came within 7-cents):

no indicator day

Trading off of a momentum indicator on a trend day like today would have you screwed six ways to Sunday.  Here's what buying a momentum divergence left you with today on the 15-min:

While on the 5-minute one would be sliced and diced:

  So, on a day when Advancers/Decliners are severely out of balance, the TICK starts of with -1000 and can barely get back to zero, and the rest of the breadth indicators are flashing sell, just turn the squiggly line indicator off.
What were some reasonable targets to aim for?
Fib Retracement as measured between the PDC and today's Open had a great proportion:

and the Fib retracement off of the PDH & PDL had similar results

Monday SPY intraday

A look at the SPY for Monday 11.15
Price retraced 61.8% between the high of 11.11 and the low of Friday 11.12

  So, we gaped up this morning (upward momentum).  Drawing a Fib. retracement line off of the close on Friday and today's Open what do we see:

- Following the gap up momentum, price wicked the 50% retracement before returning to the Open.  NOTE: The above chart uses the closing time of 4:15 EST.  Using a closing time of 4EST  we get a nearly 100% retracement after the open and a 100% extension, the proportions of momentum and it's extension do not change).
- As price returned to the open the upward gap momentum carried us to a 50% extension.

The 15-min chart shows two strong bars early in the day (the green bar being a 2x-bar).  Notice the midpoint of these bars and their respective Support/Resistance qualities.

Using the squiggly line tool, we only really got one signal out of it today, that being a sell divergence (which would have been a test to sit through).

retrace

SPY retraced 38.2% from July 01 lows to July 13 highsIWM much less of a bounce on the way up, and much more selling on the way down, retracing 61.8%:

1 bounce 2 bounce

Updated chart at the bottom:

Most recently, the SPY has bounced twice from $105, and it's a very long-standing Support/Resistance level.The more we test $105 and the weaker the bounces get can result in things getting very messy sub-$105.The first bounce saw relative support at each Fib. level between the "flash crash" low and it's bounce pivot, particularly that of the 61.8%-78.6% retracement levels.The recent bounce and tomorrow we'll see what kind of support we get out of the 50% retracement level. We should be able to gauge buying interest soon in terms of whether we'll see a lower low.
Waiting to gauge a reaction off of $107
updated chart after today's session:
got sold off of the Upper Median Line only to come rallying back strong.