Thu. 10_04

Gap up, consolidate, momentum, pull back, consolidate, close near highs.
Early morning ping-pong between the opening swing, which was also the midpoint of the overnight range.  Opening swing highs held support as did the overnight highs later in the afternoon.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:   

Advance/Decline started, and remained, high the entire day.  While Up/Down volume trended strongly higher all day.

15m and 5m with 3/10macd.  The fuchsia lines were left in to highlight how a symmetrical triangle morphs into an ascending triangle.  This looks ready to move higher in my opinion.

Butting up right against resistance

Today we achieved the 50% projection off of our most recent seed wave.

wED 10_03

SPY with TICK
Opened near the overnight highs, sold off to the overnight lows where strong volume brought us back to the highs of the day.  A pullback to the overnight range midpoint found buyers to break price out to the 50% extension of the overnight range.  Initial support found at the confluence of IB_high, o/n_high, o/s_high and Opening print.  Weak buying led to a further pullback which was capped off at the o/s_low.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:   

Advance/Decline and Up/Down Volume both showing zero-line support today.

Most of my entries today were taken prior to the "trigger" entry.

The SPY still looks to be setting up under resistance.  Tomorrow should be interesting in terms of a more definitive direction.

over $145.50 is important for a bullish bias

The QQQ is looking similar as it sets up under $69.25.  You can make a bearish case for the daily chart showing a bear flag/pennant, but that could be erased with a close above the $69.50 mark

Jobless Claims at 8:30 EST tomorrow and Fed minutes at 2pm.

Thu. 9_27

SPY reclaiming the 20-day MA

SPY with TICK below.  Morning selling capped off at the overnight lows.  First test of the open swing high was rejected but later broke out from this range.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:     

Advance/Decline started off strong this morning while the Up/Down volume trended higher all day

15-min and 5-min with 3/10macd below.  Slow line back to positive with a breakout of the previous range.  

Tues. 9_25

The SPY falls apart.
I had to take the following snapshot in two parts because the extension caused the chart to look all squished.
The early morning had an opportunity to squeeze higher, but just couldn't close above the overnight highs of $146.14.  Highlighted regions show TICK divergences, but the weakness of the price bars was evidence enough.  The 11:00 slight TICK div  at the overnight range midpoint is a good example in reading the price bars to determine whether a divergence (and the resulting bounce) is strong or weak.

Later price just deteriorated after losing (and rejecting a re-test of) the overnight lows $145.56.  Again, lower price lows on higher TICK readings doesn't mean to buy just because it is a divergence, we have to pay attention to the price bars to gauge strength or weakness.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:   

Advance/Decline issues essentially trended down all day.  It (weakly) tried to bounce at the zero-line but failed, back-tested, then fell apart.  The Up/Down volume final reading was the lowest since June.  

What cautioned me for potential weakness was how the 15-minute 3/10macd set up.  Price showed a 3-push pattern within a channel (bear flag), while the 3/10macd showed this Head & Shoulders type of pattern, which I have just become accustomed to seeing as bearish.  Later in the day provided a good example of the 4d-4c continuation criteria (just a bear flag).  

Fri. 9_21

Down-Sideways-Down, is what we ended up with on this OpEx Friday.
Below, SPY with NYSE TICK and volume.  Notice the sell-off into the close occurred on a TICK divergence.  Just because there is a divergence isn't reason to take (or hold a trade).

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link: 

Advancing/Declining issues trended down all day, as did Up/Down volume.  The A/D line tried to hold zero, but interesting how up/down volume broke zero and was resisted by it on a pullback.

The 15-min & 5min SPY with 3/10macd.   I got chopped around in the mid-afternoon.  "Setups" taken (on the 15-min chart) were a 2d-2c continuation (bear flag) early morning, and a 3d "failure" which rolled over out of another bear flag.   The long entries taken in the mid afternoon were in anticipation of the 3a criteria, but price was very heavy and couldn't recover the IB_low.

thurs. 9_20

SPY with TICK & volume.  Significant volume at the lows of the morning (on a + TICK div) as well as on the low TICK of the day at the IB_high.  Notice the 1:30-2:30 negative TICK div (perhaps a sign of a small squeeze, forcing shorts to cover)

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:

Advance/Decline issues trended up all day with price while the Up/Down_volume trended down, but rounded and turned after 1:00pm. 

SPY 15m & 5min with 3/10macd below.  First up arrow long entry was taken at the prior bar because of the inherent strength.  Blue arrows are entries, black arrows are exits.

Wed. 9_19

The SPY with NYSE TICK.  Divergences (or reverse div.'s) corresponding with areas of interest (o/n_high, o/s_low, etc.).

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:

Advance/Decline and Up/Down_volume, mostly bullish today.  Worth noting how breadth retained the zero-line while price on the SPY retained the o/s_low

The 15min with 5-min showing a 1b-1a bullish continuation criteria and a 2b short setup into the close.

Tues. 9_18

The SPY with NYSE TICK
Not an easy day for anything but scalping 1-point moves.  The fuchsia lines are an attempt to keep up with price vs. TICK divergences or reverse divergences.  Worth noting how TICK remains within the +/- 500 range for most of the day.

Here is a key to the above chart where you can find explanations to the key in this link.

and here is the Advance/Decline and Up/Down volume for the S&P, stayed negative all day long, though the Adv/Decl had a slight upward bias to it.

Wed. 9_12

Today's SPY with TICK.

Indications given to TICK divergences at meaningful price levels:
First Up arrow - higher TICK low on lower low in price just above overnight low.
First down arrow - High TICK of the day on a lower price high at the Opening price
Second down arrow - Higher high in price lower high in TICK at the opening swing high and just shy of IB_high.
Second up arrow - Lower low in price higher low in TICK (both sequentially and for the day), hammer candle at overnight low again and near gap fill.

A good example of the A/D-line bouncing at zero

Here's a messy one - this chart is to highlight the 3/10macd and looking to trade a continuation move, which is reflected in the fast line correcting off of the slow line.  A bullish continuation move is labeled A-B-C
while a bearish wave is labeled X-Y-Z.  Essentially, I'm looking to position myself after the "B" point (bullish) in anticipation of at least the C point (re-test), but hopefully more (the continuation).  Likewise, if bearish, I'm looking to position myself around or after the "Y" point, in order to anticipate a re-test of support or continuation beyond.

So, going into this morning we had a gap up (bullish momentum) giving us our "A" point.  We then corrected ("B") then tried to test resistance "C".  The 5-minute chart on the right shows an entry long, which was exited just above vwap after failure of the opening price.
The first down arrow reflects a short entry for anticipation of the "Z"  aspect of an XYZ wave.  More or less a scratch trade.
Second up arrow, a long entry in anticipation of the C1 move resulting from the A1-B1-C1 wave (also inverse H&S (sort of) on 5min).  Not a premium exit, the rejection was pretty quick.
Two down arrows because I scaled back and then went back in between those two bars (amateur).  Fib projection showing price targets.  This short was based on anticipation of the X2-Y2-Z2 wave.

Tues. 9_11

The SPY 5-minute with TICK.  Fib. projections based off of the o/n_high/low.

Here is a guide to what the horizontal lines indicate and if you are confused about the abbreviations see the previous post.

Here is a look at the breadth.  Stayed mostly bullish on the day

Mon. 8_10

Today's SPY:
The upper-most purple horizontal line indicates the overnight highs from Friday, as it was a failure point on Friday as well.

 A key to the chart above as to what the horizontal lines represent.  The Fib. projections are based off of the overnight range high/low:

     Something else I usually have on screen is the Advance/Decline difference for the S&P500 (top chart) and the Up/Down Volume difference (bottom chart) for the S&P500.  What I'm most interested in is the interaction with the zero line (horizontal teal) and how deeply positive or negative the index is for the day.  Volume started negative and trended that way all day.  While with the Advance/Decline, the zero-line highlighted a good support-turned-Resistance pivot:

divergence

Just because there exists a divergence doesn't mean price can't continue higher.  A perfect example of that today in the SPY and the NYSE TICK.
Sorry for the busy chart.  As an aside,  the first highlighted region on the TICK chart was not a divergence.  What followed, were TICK divergences, which led to subtle price pullbacks but ultimately continued breaking out.  Notice how TICK held the zero-line on each pullback.

updates

Updated charts from previous posts this week regarding the ES and SPY.
Lows coincided with a throwback to a down trend line where we worked into a sideways base on more muted TICK readings:

Updated 60-min ES chart with prior S/R levels.