Showing posts with label dollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dollar. Show all posts
Friday, January 3, 2014
Dollar
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) looks to be setting up a 3d criteria buy entry on the daily. This would be an entry in anticipation of the weekly setting up the very same setup. Primary resistance is the 81.30 area
Saturday, May 11, 2013
Dollar 3d
Update on the weekly time frame 3d criteria (shaded in the chart below, left) setup that took place on the U.S. Dollar Index at the start of this year.
The daily showing potential "trigger" entries (one of which "failed" where price reversed and made a lower low).
Watching for potential breakout over $83.70
The daily showing potential "trigger" entries (one of which "failed" where price reversed and made a lower low).
Friday, February 22, 2013
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Dollar
The U.S. Dollar Index broke out of a resistance point this week. I pointed out in a previous post about the Daily setting up a 3d criteria, after which time price rolled over but found support at $79.
The weekly chart (below) is interesting. After the previous few months of selling pressure price managed to hold a higher low while momentum registered quite a strong negative reading. This sort of reverse divergence can sometimes lead to a "slingshot" in price.
I'm still liking this Quarterly chart of the U.S. Dollar Index, as I'm in the camp that this could be a very long-term falling wedge.
Working with the above Quarterly chart I'll add a cloned trendline to give some perspective of how price has worked mostly within this channel for the majority of its life cycle
Finally, I'd like to add the 3/10macd to this quarterly chart to highlight the 3d criteria setting up on this chart while price is showing an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern.
Should be interesting going forward.
The weekly chart (below) is interesting. After the previous few months of selling pressure price managed to hold a higher low while momentum registered quite a strong negative reading. This sort of reverse divergence can sometimes lead to a "slingshot" in price.
I'm still liking this Quarterly chart of the U.S. Dollar Index, as I'm in the camp that this could be a very long-term falling wedge.
Working with the above Quarterly chart I'll add a cloned trendline to give some perspective of how price has worked mostly within this channel for the majority of its life cycle
Finally, I'd like to add the 3/10macd to this quarterly chart to highlight the 3d criteria setting up on this chart while price is showing an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern.
Should be interesting going forward.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
then and now
With all the excitement of the "top" being possibly in, it's important to realize that we've seen this before, and we need further proof of weakness to make the assumption that sellers are predominant.
Exhibit A:
The percentages were based on an Open basis of the first red bar and a Close basis on the last red bar.
Let's point out similarities and differences of these two moves.
-Coming off of the lows in June of '09 price rocketed back to the 38.2% retracement, while more recently price chopped in an inverted roof type pattern before gaping up above it's 38.2%.
-It's interesting that in both instances, price gaped above their 50% Fib. Retracements. The occurrence in July '09 was a strong impulse trending move, while in today's situation price came back for a test of this level.
-There were three specific consolidation levels coming off the lows in July '09; at the 38.2% & 78.6% retracements, and at a previous resistance level going back to June (blue horizontal line).
-So far, price was very resistant at the lows of the previous swing move ($108) and now consolidates under the $111 area that acted as previous resistance going back to January.
It seems apparent that based on price alone, the recent moves up have been in a very apprehensive style.
While there are comparable similarities in price, it is what the Dollar has done, and is doing now, that is most interesting. Take a look at the U.S. Dollar Index where the dates to compare are segmented with vertical dash lines.
-Back in June '09 price seemed to have double bottomed off of December '08 lows and formed a bullish flag (coinciding with selling in the S&P's). Psychology being, "a dollar bottom could mean lower prices ahead in equities."
After consolidating in a tight range, price finally failed and broke down, giving us the gaping trend day in equities on July15.
-Most recently we see a similar behavior pattern develop (again, the dash vertical lines span the top to bottom selloff we have recently witnessed in equities). Price broke out of an overhead resistance level, giving impulse to an equity selloff. The Dollar Index currently sits in a consolidation phase that just may determine the direction of our equities path.
ALL eyes on UUP!
Exhibit A:
The percentages were based on an Open basis of the first red bar and a Close basis on the last red bar.Let's point out similarities and differences of these two moves.
-Coming off of the lows in June of '09 price rocketed back to the 38.2% retracement, while more recently price chopped in an inverted roof type pattern before gaping up above it's 38.2%.-It's interesting that in both instances, price gaped above their 50% Fib. Retracements. The occurrence in July '09 was a strong impulse trending move, while in today's situation price came back for a test of this level.
-There were three specific consolidation levels coming off the lows in July '09; at the 38.2% & 78.6% retracements, and at a previous resistance level going back to June (blue horizontal line).
-So far, price was very resistant at the lows of the previous swing move ($108) and now consolidates under the $111 area that acted as previous resistance going back to January.
It seems apparent that based on price alone, the recent moves up have been in a very apprehensive style.
While there are comparable similarities in price, it is what the Dollar has done, and is doing now, that is most interesting. Take a look at the U.S. Dollar Index where the dates to compare are segmented with vertical dash lines.
-Back in June '09 price seemed to have double bottomed off of December '08 lows and formed a bullish flag (coinciding with selling in the S&P's). Psychology being, "a dollar bottom could mean lower prices ahead in equities."After consolidating in a tight range, price finally failed and broke down, giving us the gaping trend day in equities on July15.
-Most recently we see a similar behavior pattern develop (again, the dash vertical lines span the top to bottom selloff we have recently witnessed in equities). Price broke out of an overhead resistance level, giving impulse to an equity selloff. The Dollar Index currently sits in a consolidation phase that just may determine the direction of our equities path.
ALL eyes on UUP!
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Dollar extension
I'm a little late on posting this chart, but it's a nice textbook example of a 100% Fibonacci extension out of a bull flag.
I chose the starting price as the bottom of the large green (momentum) bar, as it marked the beginning of the move up.
I chose the starting price as the bottom of the large green (momentum) bar, as it marked the beginning of the move up.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
It's official
The laggard of this "recovery rally," the Dow Jones Industrial Average has officially tested the Lehman-Gap. It is the last of the four major indices to do so, and is officially the time to go short.
ha! just kidding! sort of ;)
Watch the dollar for signs of weakness (in equities, strength in the Dollar).
Zoom in a bit on that chart and look at the day the U.S.Dollar Index had yesterday:
That's an 8-cent daily range! Talk about range contraction! Keep an eye on this one, it should get interesting.
ha! just kidding! sort of ;)
Watch the dollar for signs of weakness (in equities, strength in the Dollar).
Zoom in a bit on that chart and look at the day the U.S.Dollar Index had yesterday:
That's an 8-cent daily range! Talk about range contraction! Keep an eye on this one, it should get interesting.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
rally day
An awesome dollar-crumbling-induced rally today means too many setups to include in today's blog post. The SPY was right out of the gate. In case you needed more clues beyond the strong bar with volume above the Previous Day's High, the markets set up all morning with these Resistance becomes Support (RbS) levels.
Amazing how far we've come without any significant profit-taking. Today's high was on lower momentum, but one lower momentum reading does not a top make.
Next resistance level looks like it could be the psychological 1000 mark for the S&P, which is also right near a 38.2% Fib level.
Two matters which could produce a retracement in the near future are the Dollar and Treasurys approaching significant levels of support. Yields were up pretty big today as the Treasury attempts to entice buyers to support our ginormous debt.
If the Dollar index breaks down from here we may be on the road to a triple top in the S&P ;)
Just wanted to include this comparison of the S&P and the U.S.Dollar Index on a monthly basis. Keeping in mind the '03 - '07 rally was in large part correlated with the breakdown of our dollar.
Amazing how far we've come without any significant profit-taking. Today's high was on lower momentum, but one lower momentum reading does not a top make.
Next resistance level looks like it could be the psychological 1000 mark for the S&P, which is also right near a 38.2% Fib level.
Two matters which could produce a retracement in the near future are the Dollar and Treasurys approaching significant levels of support. Yields were up pretty big today as the Treasury attempts to entice buyers to support our ginormous debt.
If the Dollar index breaks down from here we may be on the road to a triple top in the S&P ;)
Just wanted to include this comparison of the S&P and the U.S.Dollar Index on a monthly basis. Keeping in mind the '03 - '07 rally was in large part correlated with the breakdown of our dollar.
Monday, June 15, 2009
corrected
We finally got a healthy dose of correction. SPY gapped-down below the previous day's low (also S2) and didn't even bother testing the gap.
Here's the first 2-hours on a 1-min.
The dollar rally (and resulting correction in commodities) seems to be the excuse for today's sell-off/correction.
SPY registered a most recent momentum low (going back to May 21st)
When all else was down and moving sideways, UNG was having an up day. It based around it's first impulse move up before putting two more impulse moves in (3-push).
Though price keeps pushing up in UNG the 30-min is showing a bearish momentum divergence.
As TLT double-topped today around $91 I'll look into some upside in TBT tomorrow.
Nice how AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, et.al. sit right on their 20-EMA.
Keeping with the theme of the above chart; the Q's show a healthy pullback to the 20-EMA on relatively low volume
As far as I can tell, I think the ultimate trajectory in equities will lie in the direction of the dollar/commodities. For now most things are sitting on their 20-EMA, it can go either way. Whereas SPY put in the highest close of this entire range on Friday, today it put in the lowest close of this entire range...a regular which-way-do-we-go-George scenario. 
Here's the first 2-hours on a 1-min.
The dollar rally (and resulting correction in commodities) seems to be the excuse for today's sell-off/correction.
SPY registered a most recent momentum low (going back to May 21st)
When all else was down and moving sideways, UNG was having an up day. It based around it's first impulse move up before putting two more impulse moves in (3-push).
Though price keeps pushing up in UNG the 30-min is showing a bearish momentum divergence.
As TLT double-topped today around $91 I'll look into some upside in TBT tomorrow.
Nice how AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, et.al. sit right on their 20-EMA.
Keeping with the theme of the above chart; the Q's show a healthy pullback to the 20-EMA on relatively low volume
As far as I can tell, I think the ultimate trajectory in equities will lie in the direction of the dollar/commodities. For now most things are sitting on their 20-EMA, it can go either way. Whereas SPY put in the highest close of this entire range on Friday, today it put in the lowest close of this entire range...a regular which-way-do-we-go-George scenario. 
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