Thu. 9_27

SPY reclaiming the 20-day MA

SPY with TICK below.  Morning selling capped off at the overnight lows.  First test of the open swing high was rejected but later broke out from this range.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:     

Advance/Decline started off strong this morning while the Up/Down volume trended higher all day

15-min and 5-min with 3/10macd below.  Slow line back to positive with a breakout of the previous range.  

Tues. 6_05

Just a look at the last two sessions in SPY and the pre-market (overnight) session.  (Blue dash vertical line represents the Open while the purple horizontal lines indicate the o/n highs and lows).
Monday:
   Fairly wide o/n range.  A false breakout to the upside and a return all the way back to the o/n-lows.  Price chopped around gaining support for another round-trip back to test the o/n-high.

Tuesday:
     The o/n-low was within a penny of yesterday's o/n-low.  The opening drive breakout tagged the 50% projection of the o/n-range before pulling back and holding the o/n-high as support.  Ultimately the 100% projection of the o/n-range was achieved late in the day.

Today's regular trading hours (RTH) had a bullish (relief rally) tone to them.  The early morning setup was a bull flag continuation of yesterday's late afternoon action.  The ensuing pullback into the 11CST period (holding the o/n-highs as previously illustrated in the chart above) can also be considered the 2c-2d long setup.  The previous day's bull flag achieved the 50% projection which lined up closely with the 50% projection of this afternoon's higher low wave (the structure formed between 11-12:30CST).

Thurs. 2_9

Some setups from today.
3d set up in FSLR coming into today - Sold WAY too soon (at the 100% projection) and missed the really strong secondary move, but there was a third opportunity later in the day.

NFLX set up the 3d going into the close yesterday and formed an inverse Head & shoulder pattern that consolidated into a tight triangle.  First exit was taken at the supply level where the Fib. fan starts from (dash blue line), around $126.50, second exit around $126.2 when price failed to follow through beyond 126.5

BIDU - set up the 3d pattern yesterday (inverse H&S) and today found support above the previous day's resistance.  Entry (first up arrow) wasn't so good, but I wasn't stopped out and a second entry was soon triggered (second up arrow).  Exits were discretionary (strong closing 15-minute bars) as price was exploring a gap fill from 2/6

Fri 1_13

Resilient bulls.
Going into the open, provided there is a decent amount of pre-market activity, I like to keep my charts/indicators loaded with that pre-market activity.   Here is what the SPY looked like going into the open; giving two short entries (4d-to-4c continuation; one before the market opened) and two long entries (based off of the 3d setup). Price is still running higher (last check was at $129.3).

Compare that to what it looks like without the pre-market

Just throwing in a chart of the SPY with breadth...A/D line was solidly bearish throughout the day, but it would seem shorts don't want to push their positions.

Higher time frame look....support held, though downward momentum was quite strong.  Monday the markets are closed and Friday is Opex, should make it interesting (or really uneventful)

Some trades:
NFLX at the open this morning provided a continuation move (1b-to-1a)

entering on a faster time frame got you in a bit quicker, the 5-min trigger was late and extended
below the left-hand chart is a 2-minute

I also entered NFLX later in the day for a scratch

FAS was a quick trade that should have been held longer

thurs 1_12

Another good example of the A/D zero-line acting as support today.   First the initial bounce in the first half-hour of trade.  Price support ended up corresponding with a -200 reading (mildly bearish).  A/D line bounced at zero 3 times later in the afternoon as extreme negative TICKs on higher lows indicated a bullish divergence.

Some trades:
BTU - 2c setup.  Later in the day there was the chance of a continued test higher, but ended up scratching at b/e

GS - continued to show strength (or squeeze).

Really disappointed in missing this as I was watching for it yesterday.  A channel/flag break in NFLX

Also disappointed for not taking this short in the SPY this morning (2d-to-4c continuation, or simply, a bear flag).  Notice that the 15-min 3/10macd (top indicator) showed a lower low while price made a higher low/double-bottom, which gives us a buy divergence, while the 5-minute 3/10macd formed an inverse H&S (as did price).

Wed 1_11

Some decent setups today.
First was GS early in the morning and later in the afternoon (2c setup)

FSLR- I have two up-arrows on the 5-min 3/10macd.  The first shows a valid long entry trigger, but I didn't take it as price felt extended.  I did enter on the second up arrow though.

GLD- into the close with a 2c setup

Thought I would include this chart of the SPY with the TICK and Advance/Decline.  I mentioned in a past post about watching the A/D line and its interplay with the zero-line.  Here was a good example of how sellers were hitting resistance points, but once the A/D line recovered zero the buyers seemed to be in control.  Also worth noting, price held the 50% retrace from Monday's gap up.

tues 1_10

I'm really not good on days like today; the big gap up day (or down for that matter).  The momentum should tell you not to aggressively fade and what I would consider overhead resistance makes me hesitant to put on long entries.  Not to mention a momentum indicator is rendered useless (until later in the afternoon when it catches up to price).  What I end up doing to combat such a dilemma is use a "gap-less" indicator, one in which the gap is muted so that it doesn't exaggerate the move.  As I mentioned, the indicator does catch up to price later in the day, so I just use this indicator for the first 3-hours of the day.
So, in the chart below I've done two things;
1) I'm using a gap-less 3/10macd indicator
2) I'm using a 5-minute chart, however, the first 3/10macd has settings that reflect the 15-minute time frame, while the second 3/10macd has default settings for a 5-min chart (also the moving averages have settings to reflect a 15-minute time frame). 
So I have just combined two charts into one essentially.  The two down arrows reflect short entries (first exit was at $129 support while the second exit was $129.2 after the double bottom).  The up arrow was a long entry (half taken off at $129.3 other half for break-even).

and here is what it looks like using a regular 3/10macd.  The gapless indicator made it easier to see a more bearish tone to the price action.

All-in-all not a fun day to be messing with the broad indices.  However, there were issues that had a nice trend to them.

I missed the better entry in FSLR (first up arrow) but did get in before it broke higher (second up arrow)

NFLX illustrates a good example of when to take momentum divergences.  It has had a strong trend these past few days and pulled back into support on higher momentum.  Exits taken around $96 resistance zone.

trend continuation

Added the ADX in the 15 min chart to indicate the concept as mentioned over the weekend.

It looks as thought today's move could have been a short squeeze as price is narrowing into a rising wedge on not so wonderful volume.  Not that it couldn't gap higher and squeeze higher, just that the structure seems weak:

Compared to the last time price rebounded off the 200-MA, forming the perfect seed wave on a 3d setup

trend

One of highest probability trades out there;  entering on a pullback of strongly trending price (I added the ADX in there to show the degree of trend in case it's not obvious from the Moving Averages, but it can be useful as a component for an intraday scan).
The vertical lines on the 5-min chart indicate possible triggers to entry (if you need an indicator for that) or for a more aggressive entry, one could fade a red fast line reading on the 5-min.   The best entries coincide with a pullback to the origin of the breakout (notice the large reverse divergence on the 5-min chart).
Of the 4 vertical lines (entries), only 1 would have resulted in a loss or break-even trade.  The third entry never hit the ATR stop placement. 

The SPY didn't have as strong of an ADX reading as that of TLT but still provided the same concept as that above.  Look to fade higher price (green fast line)

But look to fade it in an area that corresponds with what can be considered a resistance level or overbought conditions (extreme TICK).
As the fast line goes green the first time a test of vwap corresponded to a new TICK high which was faded (though the payoff was a higher low).  The second push higher tested the 9:15 breakdown point on extreme TICKs and went to test the lows.

As an aside, I did take the 3d long entry towards the end of the day.  Price went beyond my stop by 4-cents before hitting both the 50% & 100% projections (though be it in a very choppy move).

Buy strength

AAPL was really strong from the open, and got very frothy as it was about to break out from the IB high.  A very smooth trade.

buy the dip

Was watching GS towards the close yesterday because of a 3d setup.  I pulled the long entry for a b/e trade and wasn't around for the last 15-min of the day to catch the move which ended up carrying through today.  Rather than enter on the open I waited for a pullback after the first hour (almost) as price flagged and found support at a previous resistance level.

The trend has been strong these past 3 days and all dips being bought.  Entry after a pullback of the faster time frame 3/10 macd and exits at the 50% & 100% Fib. projections (measured off of the PDC to today's Open).