USO

 [Updated]
 Opened right above the 50% retracement of the previous day and continued higher all day:

Last nights post:

USO had two large momentum days in the past 3 sessions (the 2x-bar concept).  Looking for the 50% Fib. retracement to act as a pivot we can measure Thursday's momentum range from the High to Low ($40.54) and Open to Close ($40.66) and see how that range acts as Support/Resistance.

Also, today was a wide-range momentum bar and its 50% level is $40.16 which aligns nicely to the pivot level for today (support-turned-resistance).  So, with this information we have two levels to watch for long entry potential going into tomorrow.

Friday's Fibs

Wednesday's session of the SPY showed a real body 2x greater than the previous day (2x-bar, indicated on the chart below by the teal paint-bar).  With that in mind, we look for the midpoint of that previous bar to act as a support or resistance level.

The High/Low of Wednesday worked out to be very close to the Open/Close prices.  So whether you used the High/Low or Open/Close for your Fib. measurements the difference was marginal (3-cent difference).

The price gap down on Friday was very close to the previous day's Low and Open.  It also closely corresponded to the 50% level as measured off of Tuesday's Low and Wednesday's High:

  With such a wide gap down (momentum) we can draw Fib. lines based off of the previous day's Close to Friday's Open.  In this case, our 50% mark was at nearly the same area as our 2x-bar midline and our previous day's High/Low 50% range, but what ultimately capped off the gap-fill attempt was the 61.8% retracement level:

If we consider the gap down Open as our initial momentum impulse we can look for price to make a measured move of this initial impulse.  In this case, Friday hit the 50% extension to the penny.

breached

The Lower Median Line of our Pitchfork was breached today, while the 50-day lies just below (as an aside, price opened RIGHT ON the midpoint of a previous 2x-bar)

Also got a First Cross Sell signal.  Caution is warranted at this point as the slow line has yet to follow-through and go negative.

Intraday, we opened on the aforementioned 2x-bar midpoint, while the lows today were made on the confluence of a 50% extension off of yesterday's range and a 50% extension of the PDC to today's Open:

Back to the 20MA

SPY bounced at the Lower Median Line again (actually fell within 18-cents) which also coincided with the midpoint of a previous 2x-bar.

intraday look at the SPY which formed a hammer candle 7-cents away from the 2x-bar median line

Fib levels as measured from the most recent high to the corrective low.  Price is basing under that 50% level

The 3/10 Macd has the potential to form a First Cross sell signal here, otherwise we get another momentum push up and possibly turn into a Sell divergence should price make new highs (much the way it signaled a first cross sell in Aug. only to form a buy divergence 5-days later).  We could still push up to the 61.8% - 78.6% retracement on nil momentum and get our First Cross entry on the following tick down in the momentum histogram.

 

weekly SPY

The week ending 11/05 the SPY printed a large momentum bar (teal candle).

Here is how the mipoint (blue horizontal line) acted as a pivot for the following 8-days where 100% of the momentum impulse has been retraced.
Also on the chart below (green horizontal) is the midpoint (as measured from the Close on 11/03 to the Open of 11/04) of the impulse gap up.  Support becomes Resistance:

midpoint overhead

Yesterday the SPY and OXY printed 2x bars

SPY- In the image below, the teal bar signifies a real body that is at least 2-times greater than the previous bar.   Incidentally, the purple line is the LML of a long-term pitchfork.

intra-day price didn't quite reach the previous real body midpoint, but Oh so close:

Similar story with OXY

intraday, ALMOST tagged the 50% midpoint, triple top within a penny:

midpoints

Here are a couple of 2x-bar midpoints that were tested today. 
11/10 RIMM showed a 2x momentum bar

This morning price gaped down within $0.03 of this midpoint and bounced strongly, filling it's gap within 5-minutes.  Once the intra-day momentum bar (second 5-minute candle) went beyond it's 50% midpoint, it became apparent that the opening drive was just a short covering.  Price returned to this 11/10 midpoint and measured a 50% extension beyond it:

V exhibited a 2x momentum bar back in October, however, it was already tested once before:

This morning we gaped down and an attempted gap-fill failed, which coincided with the 10/13 midpoint.

Most recently, OXY had a strong session 3-days ago

This morning a gap-down lost momentum right around this midpoint level, leading to a short shakeout

Monday SPY intraday

A look at the SPY for Monday 11.15
Price retraced 61.8% between the high of 11.11 and the low of Friday 11.12

  So, we gaped up this morning (upward momentum).  Drawing a Fib. retracement line off of the close on Friday and today's Open what do we see:

- Following the gap up momentum, price wicked the 50% retracement before returning to the Open.  NOTE: The above chart uses the closing time of 4:15 EST.  Using a closing time of 4EST  we get a nearly 100% retracement after the open and a 100% extension, the proportions of momentum and it's extension do not change).
- As price returned to the open the upward gap momentum carried us to a 50% extension.

The 15-min chart shows two strong bars early in the day (the green bar being a 2x-bar).  Notice the midpoint of these bars and their respective Support/Resistance qualities.

Using the squiggly line tool, we only really got one signal out of it today, that being a sell divergence (which would have been a test to sit through).

MON

Thursday MON printed a 2x bar (real body 2x or more greater than the previous real body), and on Friday it demonstrated how well price respected the 50% retracement level as a pivot.  I'm still on the fence of where to draw the Fib lines from (either the extreme High/Low, or from Open to Close, it may just depend on how much wick is involved in the candle).
Going back a few days, MON had a momentum run and while price has yet to close lower than 50% of that momentum run's range, it does keep dipping lower.

The 50% retracement as measured from the High to Low framed price nicely on Friday, bouncing from it before failing it.  The fib lines drawn from the Open to Close put the 50% line 13-cents higher.

Also worth noting:  Price gaped down and had a weak rally attempt to fill this gap wherein price failed the Open (yellow line), the return test of the Open was an Ideal short entry.  Meanwhile, as price flirted with the previous day's 50% retracement we got a basing pattern with very little upward testing (aside from the final stop sweep before trading lower)

keep the ball rolling

I'm going to keep the ball rolling with RIMM and the 2xbar concept, especially since it had quite a big day today.
This will actually be a good lead-in to watching momentum bar midpoints intraday.
Straight out of the open RIMM displayed strong momentum, whether it was short covering, long entries, a combination of  both, who cares.
With a show of momentum you can figure that people are looking to buy a dip of some sort (but the smart ones will only pay wholesale for it).  Looking at the first 15-minute and 30-minute bar of the day, the midpoints of these two bars was right around $56.
Price retraced after the initial impulse to $56.13 before turning higher.  So, what was $56.13? 

An important note here:  If I'm looking for a pullback to $56 and price doesn't make it that far, then I should be looking for clues of a potential turn-around, such as we saw once price bounced at $56.13, retraced, formed a higher low, moved higher and then broke out.  Oftentimes it looks like this:

Here are the 5- and 15-min charts:

Referring to the above charts, the $56.13 area was a "confluence" of things:
- It was Resistance for the previous day, as shown on the 5-min chart.
- It was also the midpoint of the second 5-min bar of the day (to the penny! which kinda blows my mind), not shown but easily visualized.
- It was the High-Low Fib. retracement from 11/4 to 11/9, shown on the 15-min chart.
- It happened to coincide with a 38.2% retracement as measured off of the PDC and the opening swing high (not shown).
  The point being, it was a "dip" perceived as being fair value at that time.  But I think the most important point is to be aware of potential support and look for a pattern that supports your premise, similar to the one illustrated above.

follow-up

After the previous post regarding the 2x bar setup, I'll keep going with RIMM:
Daily....a breakdown of $54.76 should trigger a few tight stops

At any rate, the previous midpoint (based on Friday's range) was $55.91 (yellow dash line).  While the current midpoint is the purple line at $55.75.  Also on the chart are some target lines at $55 and $54.50 (based on previous S/R).

Patience prevailed while giving time for the H&S pattern to develop as we approached noon,  giving a good pullback entry at or previous day's midpoint.

2x bar

I put together a brief document covering the 2x-bar strategy (the doc is now private.  If you would like to view it please follow the link and request viewing.  Thank you):

Here's an example using RIMM today

On the faster timeframe, a great example of Resistance turning support.