Wed. 10_17

Opened just above the previous week's open and at the previous day's high.
Another breakout entry with quick exits (too quick perhaps).
The overnight highs ($146) acted as a significant pivot, as did the opening swing high which saw price ricochet off of.

A couple of entries on the long and short side.  Shoulda/Coulda/Woulda taken the 2c-2d criteria (15-min) entry just before 1:30.  The short just after noon was somewhat an all-or-nothing trade.  In other words, I should have taken half off at $146 which coincided around vwap at that time, but figured I'd either take a more or less b/e trade if it gets a strong bounce off of vwap or let it run to $145.75 (was thinking $143.70, but wanted to get more of a "guarantee" fill, which turned out to well).

While the Advance/Decline has seen some divergence these past two days, the Up/Down differential has barely seen a negative reading all week.

The daily coming up on that upper channel.   A 50% retrace would be nice to see, but being Options Expiration week, we could see things get manic.

an update on the IWM, QQQ, DIA daily charts posted over the weekend

Fri. 10_05

SPY fades
Once the overnight range midpoint gave up, the selling didn't give up.  TICK divergences can "work" to the extent that one realizes when price is not confirming the divergence.  In other words, you need to be able to read price bars to decipher strength or weakness.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:   

While Advance/Decline trended down for the day, the Up/Down volume tried to get something going, but once giving up the IB_low after noon the Up/Down volume went decisively negative

15min & 5min with 3/10macd.  The pullback of the fast line into the slow line, translating to the bear flag (2d-2c continuation).  Had to try the early morning range breakout, and the 2c-2d long around 11:30.  Also tried scalping long the previous day's high bounce and two lower supports, one of which was $145.70 which I didn't get filled on.

Here is a previously posted chart of the SPY 30-min with support/resistance

Here is an updated chart of the 130-min/30-min showing the 3d setup on the 130min (2c-2d on the daily) which tagged the 100% projection this morning

Here is a 15-minute chart of the SPY with the Advance/Decline on the left and Up/Down Volume on the right.  Worth noting how the up volume was well into the upward move yesterday, while today showed muted readings, hinting at distribution.

The weekly and daily charts;   I THINK the daily is a bullish thrusting pattern, but confirmation is always warranted.  But I'm not particularly crazy about the weekly fast line crossing the slow line.

Thu. 10_04

Gap up, consolidate, momentum, pull back, consolidate, close near highs.
Early morning ping-pong between the opening swing, which was also the midpoint of the overnight range.  Opening swing highs held support as did the overnight highs later in the afternoon.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:   

Advance/Decline started, and remained, high the entire day.  While Up/Down volume trended strongly higher all day.

15m and 5m with 3/10macd.  The fuchsia lines were left in to highlight how a symmetrical triangle morphs into an ascending triangle.  This looks ready to move higher in my opinion.

Butting up right against resistance

Today we achieved the 50% projection off of our most recent seed wave.

Tues. 9_25

The SPY falls apart.
I had to take the following snapshot in two parts because the extension caused the chart to look all squished.
The early morning had an opportunity to squeeze higher, but just couldn't close above the overnight highs of $146.14.  Highlighted regions show TICK divergences, but the weakness of the price bars was evidence enough.  The 11:00 slight TICK div  at the overnight range midpoint is a good example in reading the price bars to determine whether a divergence (and the resulting bounce) is strong or weak.

Later price just deteriorated after losing (and rejecting a re-test of) the overnight lows $145.56.  Again, lower price lows on higher TICK readings doesn't mean to buy just because it is a divergence, we have to pay attention to the price bars to gauge strength or weakness.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:   

Advance/Decline issues essentially trended down all day.  It (weakly) tried to bounce at the zero-line but failed, back-tested, then fell apart.  The Up/Down volume final reading was the lowest since June.  

What cautioned me for potential weakness was how the 15-minute 3/10macd set up.  Price showed a 3-push pattern within a channel (bear flag), while the 3/10macd showed this Head & Shoulders type of pattern, which I have just become accustomed to seeing as bearish.  Later in the day provided a good example of the 4d-4c continuation criteria (just a bear flag).  

Fri. 9_21

Down-Sideways-Down, is what we ended up with on this OpEx Friday.
Below, SPY with NYSE TICK and volume.  Notice the sell-off into the close occurred on a TICK divergence.  Just because there is a divergence isn't reason to take (or hold a trade).

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link: 

Advancing/Declining issues trended down all day, as did Up/Down volume.  The A/D line tried to hold zero, but interesting how up/down volume broke zero and was resisted by it on a pullback.

The 15-min & 5min SPY with 3/10macd.   I got chopped around in the mid-afternoon.  "Setups" taken (on the 15-min chart) were a 2d-2c continuation (bear flag) early morning, and a 3d "failure" which rolled over out of another bear flag.   The long entries taken in the mid afternoon were in anticipation of the 3a criteria, but price was very heavy and couldn't recover the IB_low.

thurs. 9_20

SPY with TICK & volume.  Significant volume at the lows of the morning (on a + TICK div) as well as on the low TICK of the day at the IB_high.  Notice the 1:30-2:30 negative TICK div (perhaps a sign of a small squeeze, forcing shorts to cover)

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:

Advance/Decline issues trended up all day with price while the Up/Down_volume trended down, but rounded and turned after 1:00pm. 

SPY 15m & 5min with 3/10macd below.  First up arrow long entry was taken at the prior bar because of the inherent strength.  Blue arrows are entries, black arrows are exits.

Wed. 9_12

Today's SPY with TICK.

Indications given to TICK divergences at meaningful price levels:
First Up arrow - higher TICK low on lower low in price just above overnight low.
First down arrow - High TICK of the day on a lower price high at the Opening price
Second down arrow - Higher high in price lower high in TICK at the opening swing high and just shy of IB_high.
Second up arrow - Lower low in price higher low in TICK (both sequentially and for the day), hammer candle at overnight low again and near gap fill.

A good example of the A/D-line bouncing at zero

Here's a messy one - this chart is to highlight the 3/10macd and looking to trade a continuation move, which is reflected in the fast line correcting off of the slow line.  A bullish continuation move is labeled A-B-C
while a bearish wave is labeled X-Y-Z.  Essentially, I'm looking to position myself after the "B" point (bullish) in anticipation of at least the C point (re-test), but hopefully more (the continuation).  Likewise, if bearish, I'm looking to position myself around or after the "Y" point, in order to anticipate a re-test of support or continuation beyond.

So, going into this morning we had a gap up (bullish momentum) giving us our "A" point.  We then corrected ("B") then tried to test resistance "C".  The 5-minute chart on the right shows an entry long, which was exited just above vwap after failure of the opening price.
The first down arrow reflects a short entry for anticipation of the "Z"  aspect of an XYZ wave.  More or less a scratch trade.
Second up arrow, a long entry in anticipation of the C1 move resulting from the A1-B1-C1 wave (also inverse H&S (sort of) on 5min).  Not a premium exit, the rejection was pretty quick.
Two down arrows because I scaled back and then went back in between those two bars (amateur).  Fib projection showing price targets.  This short was based on anticipation of the X2-Y2-Z2 wave.

thurs. 2/16

Just a few chart examples of setups and/or things I look for.
Coming into the open this morning the SPY was setting up the 3d criteria.  As mentioned before, it pays to check a chart with pre-market data for anything which may pop out.  The black dash line represents the Open while the up-arrows are potential long entries (one of which wasn't so good, but the rest more than made up for it).

After the open price briefly tested the previous day's lows and look how the Advance/Decline line bounced off of zero and we trended higher for the rest of the day.  Also worth taking note of, the low TICK of the day occurring at 3:15 was the perfect entry for a move into the close (it usually is on trending days).

Take a look at the longer term trend in the ES.  The overnight and previous day's momentum was the lowest since December 28th and yet we put in a higher low compared with February 10th (Slingshot setup)

I have posted this chart before and I'm doing so again because I find it to be uncanny how the past is repeating itself in this market
Here is the SPY in 2010

and now

tue. 2_14

Two examples of the 3d setup today.
First, NFLX - impatience led to an early exit

The setup in the SPY into the close today was tricky.  The first entry would have been a stop-out while the second entry was triggered late and right up against one of your targets (50% projection).

The squeeze wasn't THAT much of a surprise (well, perhaps the range of it was surprising, but the anticipation of a sell-off was less favorable) while watching TICK (divergence) at the 2/10 gap fill ($134.38).

Wed. 2_8

An example of how the Advance/Decline and its interplay with its zero-line can be used as a reference point and potentially good risk:reward entry areas when used in conjunction with price support/resistance and the TICK.
Here we have two basic support levels (horizontal dash lines) along with vertical dash lines to highlight when the A/D-line pulls back to zero, whether from above or below.  Price often seems to bounce (or fade) from this zero-line, until it doesn't, where it then breaks out.  For example, we had a few bounces off of the zero-line coming into today, the fourth test flagged and broke down later finding support (price support as well) at the -200 line (mildly bearish) on a bullish divergence on the lows.  Later in the day there were two fades off of the zero-line where price pulled back but didn't sell off, only to later break above zero on the third attempt.

Fri 1_13

Resilient bulls.
Going into the open, provided there is a decent amount of pre-market activity, I like to keep my charts/indicators loaded with that pre-market activity.   Here is what the SPY looked like going into the open; giving two short entries (4d-to-4c continuation; one before the market opened) and two long entries (based off of the 3d setup). Price is still running higher (last check was at $129.3).

Compare that to what it looks like without the pre-market

Just throwing in a chart of the SPY with breadth...A/D line was solidly bearish throughout the day, but it would seem shorts don't want to push their positions.

Higher time frame look....support held, though downward momentum was quite strong.  Monday the markets are closed and Friday is Opex, should make it interesting (or really uneventful)

Some trades:
NFLX at the open this morning provided a continuation move (1b-to-1a)

entering on a faster time frame got you in a bit quicker, the 5-min trigger was late and extended
below the left-hand chart is a 2-minute

I also entered NFLX later in the day for a scratch

FAS was a quick trade that should have been held longer