Thu. 9_27

SPY reclaiming the 20-day MA

SPY with TICK below.  Morning selling capped off at the overnight lows.  First test of the open swing high was rejected but later broke out from this range.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:     

Advance/Decline started off strong this morning while the Up/Down volume trended higher all day

15-min and 5-min with 3/10macd below.  Slow line back to positive with a breakout of the previous range.  

Tues. 9_25

The SPY falls apart.
I had to take the following snapshot in two parts because the extension caused the chart to look all squished.
The early morning had an opportunity to squeeze higher, but just couldn't close above the overnight highs of $146.14.  Highlighted regions show TICK divergences, but the weakness of the price bars was evidence enough.  The 11:00 slight TICK div  at the overnight range midpoint is a good example in reading the price bars to determine whether a divergence (and the resulting bounce) is strong or weak.

Later price just deteriorated after losing (and rejecting a re-test of) the overnight lows $145.56.  Again, lower price lows on higher TICK readings doesn't mean to buy just because it is a divergence, we have to pay attention to the price bars to gauge strength or weakness.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:   

Advance/Decline issues essentially trended down all day.  It (weakly) tried to bounce at the zero-line but failed, back-tested, then fell apart.  The Up/Down volume final reading was the lowest since June.  

What cautioned me for potential weakness was how the 15-minute 3/10macd set up.  Price showed a 3-push pattern within a channel (bear flag), while the 3/10macd showed this Head & Shoulders type of pattern, which I have just become accustomed to seeing as bearish.  Later in the day provided a good example of the 4d-4c continuation criteria (just a bear flag).  

SPY 9_24

SPY with TICK below..
Area of interest not highlighted includes around the 9:20am point, strong volume on a re-test of the o/s_high.
Worth noting;
 High TICK of the day at the o/n_high, followed by a negative TICK divergence.
 The midpoint acted as support with a second test showing a low TICK of the day on a higher low in price, followed by a lower low in price and higher low in TICK.
 Price tagged a 50% extension of the overnight range which coincided with a gap fill.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Advancing/Declining issues trended up all day after starting off strongly bearish.  Worth noting how the gap fill corresponded with a touch of the zero line on the A/D.
Up/Down volume trended down most of the day with the exception of the mild squeeze mid-afternoon.

SPY 15-min & 5min with 3/10macd.  Drawn on the 15-min are two Fib projections; one based on the momentum gap down and pullback, which could have been considered a bear flag, however the selling was capped at the 50% projection.  The next projected from the low of the day to the initial swing high and down to the midpoint.  Price achieved the 100% projection which corresponded with the 50SMA, a gap fill, and the 50% projection of the o/n_range (as shown in the chart above).
The highlighted region on the 15min indicates the 3d criteria.  I took two entries in anticipation of this setup, one around noon and the other about an hour later.  The noon long entry I exited with a small loss.  

Fri. 9_21

Down-Sideways-Down, is what we ended up with on this OpEx Friday.
Below, SPY with NYSE TICK and volume.  Notice the sell-off into the close occurred on a TICK divergence.  Just because there is a divergence isn't reason to take (or hold a trade).

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link: 

Advancing/Declining issues trended down all day, as did Up/Down volume.  The A/D line tried to hold zero, but interesting how up/down volume broke zero and was resisted by it on a pullback.

The 15-min & 5min SPY with 3/10macd.   I got chopped around in the mid-afternoon.  "Setups" taken (on the 15-min chart) were a 2d-2c continuation (bear flag) early morning, and a 3d "failure" which rolled over out of another bear flag.   The long entries taken in the mid afternoon were in anticipation of the 3a criteria, but price was very heavy and couldn't recover the IB_low.

thurs. 9_20

SPY with TICK & volume.  Significant volume at the lows of the morning (on a + TICK div) as well as on the low TICK of the day at the IB_high.  Notice the 1:30-2:30 negative TICK div (perhaps a sign of a small squeeze, forcing shorts to cover)

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:

Advance/Decline issues trended up all day with price while the Up/Down_volume trended down, but rounded and turned after 1:00pm. 

SPY 15m & 5min with 3/10macd below.  First up arrow long entry was taken at the prior bar because of the inherent strength.  Blue arrows are entries, black arrows are exits.

Wed. 9_19

The SPY with NYSE TICK.  Divergences (or reverse div.'s) corresponding with areas of interest (o/n_high, o/s_low, etc.).

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:

Advance/Decline and Up/Down_volume, mostly bullish today.  Worth noting how breadth retained the zero-line while price on the SPY retained the o/s_low

The 15min with 5-min showing a 1b-1a bullish continuation criteria and a 2b short setup into the close.

Tues. 9_18

The SPY with NYSE TICK
Not an easy day for anything but scalping 1-point moves.  The fuchsia lines are an attempt to keep up with price vs. TICK divergences or reverse divergences.  Worth noting how TICK remains within the +/- 500 range for most of the day.

Here is a key to the above chart where you can find explanations to the key in this link.

and here is the Advance/Decline and Up/Down volume for the S&P, stayed negative all day long, though the Adv/Decl had a slight upward bias to it.

Wed. 9_12

Today's SPY with TICK.

Indications given to TICK divergences at meaningful price levels:
First Up arrow - higher TICK low on lower low in price just above overnight low.
First down arrow - High TICK of the day on a lower price high at the Opening price
Second down arrow - Higher high in price lower high in TICK at the opening swing high and just shy of IB_high.
Second up arrow - Lower low in price higher low in TICK (both sequentially and for the day), hammer candle at overnight low again and near gap fill.

A good example of the A/D-line bouncing at zero

Here's a messy one - this chart is to highlight the 3/10macd and looking to trade a continuation move, which is reflected in the fast line correcting off of the slow line.  A bullish continuation move is labeled A-B-C
while a bearish wave is labeled X-Y-Z.  Essentially, I'm looking to position myself after the "B" point (bullish) in anticipation of at least the C point (re-test), but hopefully more (the continuation).  Likewise, if bearish, I'm looking to position myself around or after the "Y" point, in order to anticipate a re-test of support or continuation beyond.

So, going into this morning we had a gap up (bullish momentum) giving us our "A" point.  We then corrected ("B") then tried to test resistance "C".  The 5-minute chart on the right shows an entry long, which was exited just above vwap after failure of the opening price.
The first down arrow reflects a short entry for anticipation of the "Z"  aspect of an XYZ wave.  More or less a scratch trade.
Second up arrow, a long entry in anticipation of the C1 move resulting from the A1-B1-C1 wave (also inverse H&S (sort of) on 5min).  Not a premium exit, the rejection was pretty quick.
Two down arrows because I scaled back and then went back in between those two bars (amateur).  Fib projection showing price targets.  This short was based on anticipation of the X2-Y2-Z2 wave.

Tues. 9_11

The SPY 5-minute with TICK.  Fib. projections based off of the o/n_high/low.

Here is a guide to what the horizontal lines indicate and if you are confused about the abbreviations see the previous post.

Here is a look at the breadth.  Stayed mostly bullish on the day

tue. 2_14

Two examples of the 3d setup today.
First, NFLX - impatience led to an early exit

The setup in the SPY into the close today was tricky.  The first entry would have been a stop-out while the second entry was triggered late and right up against one of your targets (50% projection).

The squeeze wasn't THAT much of a surprise (well, perhaps the range of it was surprising, but the anticipation of a sell-off was less favorable) while watching TICK (divergence) at the 2/10 gap fill ($134.38).

Wed. 2_8

An example of how the Advance/Decline and its interplay with its zero-line can be used as a reference point and potentially good risk:reward entry areas when used in conjunction with price support/resistance and the TICK.
Here we have two basic support levels (horizontal dash lines) along with vertical dash lines to highlight when the A/D-line pulls back to zero, whether from above or below.  Price often seems to bounce (or fade) from this zero-line, until it doesn't, where it then breaks out.  For example, we had a few bounces off of the zero-line coming into today, the fourth test flagged and broke down later finding support (price support as well) at the -200 line (mildly bearish) on a bullish divergence on the lows.  Later in the day there were two fades off of the zero-line where price pulled back but didn't sell off, only to later break above zero on the third attempt.

Fri 1_13

Resilient bulls.
Going into the open, provided there is a decent amount of pre-market activity, I like to keep my charts/indicators loaded with that pre-market activity.   Here is what the SPY looked like going into the open; giving two short entries (4d-to-4c continuation; one before the market opened) and two long entries (based off of the 3d setup). Price is still running higher (last check was at $129.3).

Compare that to what it looks like without the pre-market

Just throwing in a chart of the SPY with breadth...A/D line was solidly bearish throughout the day, but it would seem shorts don't want to push their positions.

Higher time frame look....support held, though downward momentum was quite strong.  Monday the markets are closed and Friday is Opex, should make it interesting (or really uneventful)

Some trades:
NFLX at the open this morning provided a continuation move (1b-to-1a)

entering on a faster time frame got you in a bit quicker, the 5-min trigger was late and extended
below the left-hand chart is a 2-minute

I also entered NFLX later in the day for a scratch

FAS was a quick trade that should have been held longer

Wed 1_11

Some decent setups today.
First was GS early in the morning and later in the afternoon (2c setup)

FSLR- I have two up-arrows on the 5-min 3/10macd.  The first shows a valid long entry trigger, but I didn't take it as price felt extended.  I did enter on the second up arrow though.

GLD- into the close with a 2c setup

Thought I would include this chart of the SPY with the TICK and Advance/Decline.  I mentioned in a past post about watching the A/D line and its interplay with the zero-line.  Here was a good example of how sellers were hitting resistance points, but once the A/D line recovered zero the buyers seemed to be in control.  Also worth noting, price held the 50% retrace from Monday's gap up.