an update on Gold as per a twitter request.
Monthly; It's funny to hear people claiming Gold to be in a bear market if your time frame is based on this chart. True the downside momentum was strong (and has potential to slow upside movement), but you can't really say that the "trend" is no longer bullish.
The $1000/oz level still looks like it would be decent support and one lower high in the grand scale of many higher lows is not necessarily bearish. Under $800/oz would get me to change my tone on this time frame. But let's face it, how many people use a monthly chart as their time frame? (OK, I did use the monthly time frame, but only because I owned physical going back a ways, and I did lighten my holdings when the 1560s gave way).
It's hard to say whether or not the "bottom is in" based on this chart, at this point in time, alone. It would be nice to see price return back above the 50-period SMA on this chart and stabilize from the previous momentum. $1389 area is the first supply pivot on this time frame and as of yet there is no structural low to cue off of
Weekly: This is likely where the "Gold-is-in-a-bear-market" argument comes from. The 20- & 50MA's have a bearish orientation and after swallowing so much momentum, price needs time to digest. We got our first mean reverting move today in the form of price coming back into the 20-period SMA.
$1390 appears to be the next pivot on this time frame, and it's interesting how symmetrical each regular/inverted cycle has been (currently in week 4 of this inverted cycle). Also, at this point, I would add a support pivot below around 1313.50.
Daily; It's encouraging (for a bull) to see the 20- & 50-day MA crossing here and to have price above both, we haven't seen that since October of last year. That could cue buyers to dabble in dip-buying behavior. We have nearly filled a gap left from June 19th and cleared a reasonably significant supply pivot (1350). Overhead we're approaching a price acceptance area and though the 1390 pivot is prevalent, the 1413-1425 pivot seem to stand out.
In the end, there's never any telling what price may do exactly. All you can really do, in my opinion, is go from pivot to pivot (whether overhead or underneath) and watch how each one is tested (rejected or accepted) depending on your overall time-frame objective (are you interested in trading the monthly, weekly, or daily time frame?).
So, for instance, using the daily chart above, the supply released into the market on June 20 (1350) was tested a month later and rejected (strong red candle). Buyers then found value under $1300 to take us back above that previous 1350 pivot. It's important we see follow-through as we move higher to test previous supply areas. The next 'lower high' pivot to take on is 1413, followed by 1470s. I suspect buyers may be timid given the higher time frame selling momentum that has taken place over the past few months, so it's baby-steps while taking cues from momentum when and where we get it. Reclaiming 1560 could be a game changer in my opinion, but first we deal with the more immediate pivots.
If you have a more specific question let me know.
