ascending triangle

Been stalking GS for a few days now based on this triangle on the daily, in particular the potential for a false breakdown.  Still potential on the long side for some short covering to trigger:

Intra-day set up as an ascending triangle, target was a measured move of the ascending triangle which coincided with a breakdown point from last Friday.  Better entry was a re-test of the Open, which I actually bought but got stopped out of :/

Pullback

Momentum, Pullback, Continuation:
Entered short @55, exited half @ $54 half @ $53.75

Been away from the blog, but have been adding charts/examples into this document.  It requires permission for viewing, but just click the request and I'll accept.  This document references a favored setup using the 3/10 macd for intraday trading.

inside day

Following a momentum gap up yesterday, price consolidated for most of the day within the previous range.
Two support levels throughout the day included initially the 38.2% retracement (measured off of Tuesday's close to include the momentum gap, up to yesterday's momentum high), followed by the 50% retracement.

A trade setup which I did not take follows.  I didn't take it b/c the risk/reward seemed lacking, nonetheless it was reasonably valid.
Price found support at the previous day's Open which coincided with a 61.8% retracement measured off of the previous day's High/Low range.  Afterward, price formed a seed wave where you could have bought the break ($128.39) with a target of a 50% or 100% extension (which coincided with the Open and PDC) as indicated:

If only...

...they were all so easy.  Short setup in FCX today.  Based on the premise of a double top on a momentum sell divergence.  Also keeping in mind we had a bearish bias with the previous week showing a dark-cloud cover pattern.

Short entry indicated by the down arrow as price based along the previous day's low (red dotted line).  Position was held until the 100% extension of the initial impulse (measured from the Opening range High/Low, for afterward price just consolidated along the 50% retracement of this range that coincided with the PDL). 

wednesday

SPY; another gap up on low volume. with stochastics, RSI, et al. oversold and divergent.
Price opened right near the 50% extension of the previous day's High/Low range, barely retracing in the early morning before continuing higher.

I was a little late to enter, ideally the long entry would have been closer to the Opening price, and I didn't get in until about 8-cents later.  The target was a 50% extension measured off of the previous day's Close to today's Open.

These opening gaps on barely a substantial TICK reading just exemplifies the fact that just because it's not "confirming" doesn't mean it can't run on fumes and emotion.  While price barely retraced it's sizable gap up, once price recovered the Open there was barely a seller to be found, and while later in the day a large negative TICK didn't sink the ship, instead signaled a reverse divergence bringing prices back to the highs.

patience

  A trade in FCX today which demonstrates the importance of patience (and FCX can teach a graduate course in patience).  Price showed an ascending consolidation triangle after a momentum gap fill move.  I measured the momentum from the 9:15 (CST) breakout up until price consolidated to arrive at potential targets (50% & 100%) which were both hit (as soon as I got out). 

measure momentum for targets

  The general idea behind the Fibonacci price retracement tool is to measure momentum and segment it into proportions or ratios.  So if we have a momentum, consolidation, continuation pattern what we're looking for is a proportionate continuation.   If we have momentum and are looking for a measured move after consolidation we would look for AT LEAST half of the original momentum move for our first target.  Speed of achieving our 50% target and rejection or acceptance of this move can help gauge an expectation of a further extension, where we then look for a 1:1 target or 100% extension, or a "measured move".

So, with that said, here are some examples of the above explanation which took place today.

 The SPY triangulated for most of the day before breaking out

When price finally did break out you can measure the initial momentum (in this case I used the breakout bar) to get extensions beyond this price range:

In the above chart the 50% and 100% were achieved quickly, while the 150% extension took a steeper retracement before extending further.

Here's another example using a trade I actually took today in CREE.  The Fib.s were based on the momentum prior to a basing consolidation pattern, with the expectation of a measured move beyond $64.20.  The two blue arrows were exits taken, but I set them slightly under the actual price target.

Taking half off at 50% could at least increase the probability that we'll get filled on something, just in case our Fib. measurements were off ;)

overnight

EURUSD and @ES having the same setup overnight

EURUSD - a lot of buying tails at a previous swing low

@ES - holding a higher at 1184

V going forward

 Resistance held, previous day's low held as support.  Earnings this coming week.

Watching Visa
2 of 3 previous candles were rejection at Supply level.

The Important Matter of...

...not sticking to a direction bias.
As much as I was thinking POT might see some selling today, it just wasn't happening after recovering its 20-MA. I didn't make this trade, but it was a nice example of a pattern breakout.The triangle breakout didn't quite make the measured move projection, but the Previous Day's High was a realistic target that coincided closely.