TLT

While watching for reactionary selling in the indices there was a reasonable justification to watch for the inverse in TLT.
The 3d criteria setup on the "trigger"(hourly) chart was looking good for a potential long entry, however, price ended up rolling over and triggering a short entry

CL setup reverses

Taking off from the previous post; the long entry never materialized and price broke down further.  A lesson in not being married to a bias.  The long setup was taking place, the trigger never materialized and price rolled over and traded in the other direction, which could have been just as profitable.

The fast line was trying to hold the slow line (read: momentum as price tested marginally lower, 3d criteria setup).  The price pattern showing a descending channel.  The further, steeper down tick in the 3/10macd fast line (daily chart) coincided with the breakdown bar through the descending channel.

failed

I've been stalking AAPL on the long side for the most of the week.  While I've been stalking AAPL this week, I noticed how "easy" the short side has been.  "Easy" in the sense that resistance levels were sold without much re-testing, resistance levels held and prices went lower.  However, I was looking for long entries.  My premise being that the higher time frame was setting up a 3-push 3d crtieria setup, as seen in the chart below.

So, in the charts above;  The 65m chart (left) I was looking at the 3-push price pattern with the 3d criteria.  On the right is the past 3, 15m intraday sessions, with entry points I was watching (though one of which is not indicated, the 3rd up arrow on the 15m 3/10macd isn't indicated on the price chart; user error).  The 2 down arrows were potential short entries based on the 65m 3/10macd "failing" the 3d criteria setup (essentially price rolling over and not squeezing higher the way I was anticipating).

I've written throughout this blog about the 3d criteria setup.  I'm looking for a 3-push price pattern or something similar to an inverse Head & Shoulders.  The faster time frame entry is an "a" criteria (3a or 1a) on the 3/10macd.
I've also mentioned that if this setup "fails" there may exist opportunity to turn around and short the market.  This is where I "failed" by not taking the short side of this trade, even though I was witnessing signs of selling in the tape all week.

The chart below is the 15m/5m from Thursday where I was looking to buy into this higher time frame setup.  I took the first up-arrow entry on the 5m (other 2 were equally likely entries).  I exited with a gain.

 The chart below is the 15m/5m from today where I was looking to buy into this, still valid, higher time frame setup.

I entered long and exited with a small loss.  And then I failed.  I failed to take advantage of the short opportunities that presented themselves as well as failing to take advantage of the heavy selling I witnessed all week on the tape.   It is what it is.

Wed. 11_14

A relentless bear parade.
Sure we'll "bounce" eventually, but those bounces will just present shorting opportunities.

I actually didn't trade much today, particularly around the noon to 1 hours (FOMC minutes). Arrows with an "X" indicate potential entries that I did not take.  Going into the 1 O'Clock period there was a 3d criteria set up, which then rolled-over (a concept I've talked about before regarding that setup).

The day's trade.

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

3d roll-over

A good example of a failed 3d setup, which often-times brings about a trade-able position on the short side.