The setups I include on this blog are used in conjunction with the 3/10macd and the criteria I ascribe to it as a way to alert me to an existing condition of price. The key concept to take away from this blog is that I try to anticipate what will happen on the higher time frame by using a faster time frame to trigger the trade setup. I do not trade a "system" I use two indicators to clue me in to price conditions. Please read the Disclaimer located in the sidebar of this site. I can be contacted via email at toddstrade@gmail.com
I am always open to questions, comments, or suggestions on how to improve this blog.


Showing posts with label vpoc. Show all posts
Showing posts with label vpoc. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

RIMM short

Was watching RIMM waiting for this setup to work itself out.
Price set up a long entry late in the day on the 27th while today was the opposite, basing off of a lower pivot level short.Today, price found buying around the previous day's low (PDL) and selling at the previous day's VPOC.
A second bounce around the PDL, selling at a lower high.
In the meantime, RIMM formed a sideways consolidation zone.Finally, a weak bounce, again at the PDL, failed off the Open in a bear flag pattern.I was watching the PDL for a possible bounce, but internals were increasingly negative and once we sliced through this previous support level I held on for $59.50 for half, and $59 (original target) for the other half 2-minutes before the close. Though I did hold on to 5% going into tomorrow, targeting a test of a naked VPOC.

All-in-all, RIMM looks pretty busted. In an environment of trepidation, the strong issues will be held longest. This is getting the feel of an issue that is being shed. If it breaks $58 this should really have some momentum to the downside.The weekly chart looks busted, and on a broad perspective looks like a test of H&S neckline (log chart)

Friday, May 14, 2010

POT Squeeze

POT bounced a little above $100 this morning, igniting a short squeeze back to previous acceptance, which was then rejected (longs covering? shorts entering).
Here's the daily showing a minor support level at today's lows.Today's entry:
Why enter short up there? Previous day's VPOC (while under today's lows was also a VPOC).
Looking at the price distribution, today's resistance level was a previous price congestion level, take a look at all those POC's:

Monday, April 19, 2010

value area

The SPY came in to test a previous range of congestion, resulting in interested buyers.
Here's a chart of the Volume distribution, highlighting levels of previous VPOC's, giving us a congestion band to work through. The idea being, if the market were very weak perhaps we would have consolidated here before continuing lower. The fact that buyers stepped in gives potential for further upside testing.Here's where that band lies on a daily chartOn an intraday basis, this band coincided with the previous day's low (PDL). Once testing this band price found resistance at the day's Open price, put in a higher low (W-bottom), and extended back to the day's highs.
The Fib. lines are drawn off of the seed wave to give potential targets.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

continuation

I posted this chart yesterday, so keeping with the previous day's levels we move forward into today extending the gap range area and watching for Support/Resistance at previous strong volume points.
Previous Resistance turned Support held today (coming very close to previous day's VPOC).
Resistance throughout the day was the $116.90 area ( a previous area of strong volume support).Here's a look at the most recent Volume Distributions, today's lows came right into the zone of yesterday's VPOC. The indexes have some formidable resistance ahead of them (as they have since getting beyond their 38.2% retracements. The Q's being in the lead in terms of a recovery, it is a mere 12% off of it's '07 highs. Between it's close today and the $50 level, there's a 78.6% retracement zone and a prior swing high to contend with, if there's some selling on the horizon me thinks it should come with a test of these levels.IWM overhead gap fill scenario in play (same goes for DIA and SPY)

Monday, March 22, 2010

RbS

Resistance becomes Support (RbS) in the SPY as price gaped down (on scant momentum and returned back to a previous consolidation level.Looking at the Volume Profile of the past few days, watch areas of previous large volume levels, particularly those not yet tested (VPOC). Below we see some levels of potential Support/Resistance, I also marked the gap created on Wednesday last week. This perspective highlights the concept that price often tests areas where it previously sliced through.
Now look at how it translated onto a 5-min price chart with the same price levels highlighted:
Not labeled on the above charts is the overhead resistance level (in terms of the volume profile) between $116.90 - $117.15.