Wed 01_30

today's trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

I don't care for being in the market during FOMC minutes, but once the dust settles a directional move can unfold.

I should have stayed more focused (patient) with the higher time frame unfolding.  Bear flag (channel) breakdown was fairly straight forward if you can ignore the noise.
The 65-min showing 2c-2d still, which would mean caution once we saw the 15min turn 3a criteria, while a long entry could form with the 3d criteria, but this will take time as the 15-min works off the bearish momentum (unless we have a V-bottom squeeze).  

A pullback from here is just that.  The momentum built up by this January move would take extreme momentum or a lengthy period of time to do real damage to it and create (higher time frame) sell setups.

Daily on the right in the chart below; that's a lot of bullish momentum that was formed this year.  So, we would be looking to buy the 2c-2d criteria going forward (in the same way I've been highlighting this criteria on the 65-min chart above.

Mon. 12_3

Outside Reversal day showing failure at the 50-day Moving Average.  This could potentially be the fourth lower high we've seen since September (see Daily chart below).  A failure to close above $140 in the coming 1-2 weeks could be trouble.  But for now a pullback off of the recent short covering rally was to be expected so it's a matter of gauging the aggressiveness of selling.
Today's Trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

I'm a particularly lousy scalper in the first 30-45 minutes.  Something I really need to work on.
Also, I feel as though I'm wasting my time sitting through corrective moves.  Today being a perfect example; After my initial target was reached (and half the position removed) I sat through about an hour of a corrective move just for price to come back to my first target.  In the process, a squeeze could have occurred, or price could have formed a higher low, never to see my initial target price.  Likewise, price could have fallen sharply and quickly, but more often than not it feels like the time decay I endure could be minimized.
Maybe it's something that I should consider hedging?  Selling puts?  Buying the QQQ or a levered ETF?  Just not sure.
Not taking the 9:30 short was a complete fail on my part.  The pullback after the ISM report selling was a very obvious pattern (3min chart) in my view.  Even before the "trigger" I should have been shorting that :/

Higher time frame:
Looks like 3-pushes to a high pattern on the 65min chart.  Conditioned bulls will be looking for the "lower high" so I'm thinking $139-138 will see some accumulation.