month end

Monthly charts are complete.

DIA - having trouble at the 61.8%, somewhat bearish here

SPY - most bearish looking of the bunch (imo), shooting star candle that dinged the 61.8%.

QQQQ -strong, and nearly a 100% retrace of the entire '07-'08 selloff.  While a stab at $55 looks possible, a pullback (early next year?) would be healthy

IWM - a retest of the 78.6% retracement (inverse H&S look to it) the only issue that closed green on the month

charts

posted some charts over at Chart.ly

and added notes onto the Fib. document.

coiling

Seems like we're at a something's-got-to-give level at this point, sitting right on top of the 50-day MA, bouncing twice only to end up in the same spot (price made 4 attempts to close above the 20-day).

Descending Triangle, would have a large measured move in whichever direction it breaks out to

patience

  A trade in FCX today which demonstrates the importance of patience (and FCX can teach a graduate course in patience).  Price showed an ascending consolidation triangle after a momentum gap fill move.  I measured the momentum from the 9:15 (CST) breakout up until price consolidated to arrive at potential targets (50% & 100%) which were both hit (as soon as I got out). 

measure momentum for targets

  The general idea behind the Fibonacci price retracement tool is to measure momentum and segment it into proportions or ratios.  So if we have a momentum, consolidation, continuation pattern what we're looking for is a proportionate continuation.   If we have momentum and are looking for a measured move after consolidation we would look for AT LEAST half of the original momentum move for our first target.  Speed of achieving our 50% target and rejection or acceptance of this move can help gauge an expectation of a further extension, where we then look for a 1:1 target or 100% extension, or a "measured move".

So, with that said, here are some examples of the above explanation which took place today.

 The SPY triangulated for most of the day before breaking out

When price finally did break out you can measure the initial momentum (in this case I used the breakout bar) to get extensions beyond this price range:

In the above chart the 50% and 100% were achieved quickly, while the 150% extension took a steeper retracement before extending further.

Here's another example using a trade I actually took today in CREE.  The Fib.s were based on the momentum prior to a basing consolidation pattern, with the expectation of a measured move beyond $64.20.  The two blue arrows were exits taken, but I set them slightly under the actual price target.

Taking half off at 50% could at least increase the probability that we'll get filled on something, just in case our Fib. measurements were off ;)

overnight

EURUSD and @ES having the same setup overnight

EURUSD - a lot of buying tails at a previous swing low

@ES - holding a higher at 1184

Intraday Fib.s

I've put together a brief Google Document on using intraday Fibonacci retracements, with a focus on the 50% level.   Though it is brief, I'm expecting to add to it as time goes by, with more reference charts and notes.  The document is "private" but if you would like access just click on the linked image below and put in a request to view it and I'll open it up on an individual basis.

Friday's Fibs

Wednesday's session of the SPY showed a real body 2x greater than the previous day (2x-bar, indicated on the chart below by the teal paint-bar).  With that in mind, we look for the midpoint of that previous bar to act as a support or resistance level.

The High/Low of Wednesday worked out to be very close to the Open/Close prices.  So whether you used the High/Low or Open/Close for your Fib. measurements the difference was marginal (3-cent difference).

The price gap down on Friday was very close to the previous day's Low and Open.  It also closely corresponded to the 50% level as measured off of Tuesday's Low and Wednesday's High:

  With such a wide gap down (momentum) we can draw Fib. lines based off of the previous day's Close to Friday's Open.  In this case, our 50% mark was at nearly the same area as our 2x-bar midline and our previous day's High/Low 50% range, but what ultimately capped off the gap-fill attempt was the 61.8% retracement level:

If we consider the gap down Open as our initial momentum impulse we can look for price to make a measured move of this initial impulse.  In this case, Friday hit the 50% extension to the penny.

setting up

GLD - Head & Shoulders is going through the motions and looking weak

FCX - Head & Shoulders pattern

SPY- this funky triangle will likely resolve itself next weak.  It can even be argued that this is a Head & Shoulders pattern with a week left shoulder.

.

AAPL - Head & Shoulders pattern.  Price has tested the $300 mark 3-times already on successively waning momentum

When you start seeing a lot of issues with the same pattern (Head & Shoulders tops in this case) it should be raising some cautionary flags. 

With the $Dollar pushing through resistance, next week should make for some interesting developments

pre holiday

SPY opened right on top of a 50% retracement today, as measured from Monday's high to yesterday's low.  I've included the pre-market in this chart below to illustrate how price used this midpoint as a pivot prior to the open.  Also included is a set of Fibs measured off of the PDH to PDL (yellow 50% line), also giving the pre-market a nice S/R pivot to work off of:

While on the Open, using a set of Fibs to measure the PDC to today's Open, price quickly achieved a 100% extension off of today's momentum gap:

GLD

GLD is setting something up here.  As the SPY yesterday set up the potential for a First Cross Sell signal, the GLD is setting up a similar pattern (of course we're noticing the Head & Shoulders pattern forming, which you often get with a first cross entry).  Price stalled today at the 50% retracement level following the most recent selling momentum.  At this point we would be looking for a tick lower in the momentum histogram along with the slow line crossing negative:

breached

The Lower Median Line of our Pitchfork was breached today, while the 50-day lies just below (as an aside, price opened RIGHT ON the midpoint of a previous 2x-bar)

Also got a First Cross Sell signal.  Caution is warranted at this point as the slow line has yet to follow-through and go negative.

Intraday, we opened on the aforementioned 2x-bar midpoint, while the lows today were made on the confluence of a 50% extension off of yesterday's range and a 50% extension of the PDC to today's Open:

Back to the 20MA

SPY bounced at the Lower Median Line again (actually fell within 18-cents) which also coincided with the midpoint of a previous 2x-bar.

intraday look at the SPY which formed a hammer candle 7-cents away from the 2x-bar median line

Fib levels as measured from the most recent high to the corrective low.  Price is basing under that 50% level

The 3/10 Macd has the potential to form a First Cross sell signal here, otherwise we get another momentum push up and possibly turn into a Sell divergence should price make new highs (much the way it signaled a first cross sell in Aug. only to form a buy divergence 5-days later).  We could still push up to the 61.8% - 78.6% retracement on nil momentum and get our First Cross entry on the following tick down in the momentum histogram.

 

triangle

To watch this week:

GS

 D - strong volume 200-MA just below and 20-MA just above, hmmm

Week Ending 11_19

SPY closed the week in a position to chomp away at the overhead supply left from Q4 2008.  A pretty serious level, and we could probably expect selling at key resistance levels initially, but the more time we spend up here then what?  Price is within 15% of all-time highs and we could correct 5%, 10% or more and still look pretty stable.  If we correct 5-8% and trace out a Right Shoulder, we could then have a measured move back to the '07 highs!

An important aspect of what price has done so far (imo) is the amount of fill we've done in the "Lehman Gap" range ($107-$110). 

Now that we're above the 50% retracement is this now a glass-half-full market?

Here's a look at the QQQQ....Inverse Head & Shoulder breakout with a measured move to the Y2K initial impulse move lows!  Think of how epic that chart would look should that measured move happen...you'd see it in every Technical Analysis tome forever.

However, not only has the recent ascent been steep and fast, there also seems to be a w5 count here if I'm not mistaken.  That, coupled with a hardcore resistance level overhead, makes me on guard for a correction by year end.

Some other observations:
Transports 12% off of all-time highs

Utilities look uninspired, but are building a base under a significant resistance level:

DJIA closed just under it's 61.8%...the Dow could shed 800-1000 points and still have solid support:

USO Pitchfork

USO - Holding on to the Lower Median Line while trading below 3 primary Moving Averages:

SPY top down

Starting with the Yearly chart, Price is in the upper 25% of it's recorded range:
Yearly:

and above the midpoint of the 2008 bar, yet resisting the 61.8% for now:

With the month coming to a close it should be important to see if this November bar will close above or below the May corrective bar as the $122 (61.8% retracement) price continues to be rejected:
Monthly

As the 2bTop still has potential, a close below $119 by month's end could bring a correction (A close below $119 may be difficult with tomorrow being OpEx).  There is a confluence of support below at around $112, it is the monthly 50% Fib level and the weekly 50% retracement level following this most recent advance.
Weekly:

And now the Daily.  Price was rejected on the first test of a 50% retracement following the most recent impulse down:
Daily: