The SPY closed right under it's 50-MA today, if it can clear the $117.50 level a test of $118.00-$118.50 seems reasonable. This happens to coincide with a 20-period Moving Average and a 78.6% retracement level.
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It's funny, with all the drama over the last week, what were we left with? We simply got (so far) a test of our 200-MA while putting in a higher low (only a computer could have pulled off a price low of $105 on the SPY, giving us a higher low by $0.42).
The talking heads are fabricating history by saying Thursday's free-fall was merely a computer glitch, and with the indices canceling orders on stocks that were 60% outside of their price range they have both conspired to effectively negate the long tail we see on most charts. It's as if 90% of all tails extending beyond their real bodies for Thursday's daily candle is going to be ignored (UNLESS we end up testing those tails in these next few weeks).
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Once again the Russell2000 has recovered strongly and actually closed above it's 20-MA today. Remember what happened last time we sold off and price came back to test the 78.6% retracement on this issue?...consolidation followed by continuation.
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In other words, it ain't over 'til it's over. And looking at this chart doesn't make a case for the bulls in my opinion.
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